Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (12/4)
The college basketball season is in full swing and we have a loaded Wednesday night slate of games to wager on. Our top men's college basketball bets today feature a Top 25 matchup between Auburn and Duke in the SEC/ACC Challenge. Plus, we look at picks for Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State and Oregon vs. USC.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 4th.
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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Auburn at Duke (-2.5) | O/U 145.5 (-120/-102)
Arguably the best game on Wednesday night features Duke hosting Auburn in a top-five matchup. As these National Championship contenders face off, the big-man battle between Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome could be worth the price of admission alone. It's a tough road spot having to play at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but Bruce Pearl's squad is plenty battle-tested.
The Tigers just won the Maui Invitational last week with wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Memphis. The victories over the latter two opponents were double-digit margins with 85+ points scored in both. The Iowa State win was the most impressive, though, as Auburn came back from an 18-point deficit against an elite defense.
Auburn has looked like the best team in college basketball so far this season, and the advanced metrics back it up. The Tigers have the No. 1 offense and No. 7 defense in the country, according to KenPom. They probably boast the best resume, too. Going 3-0 in Maui is an impressive feat in a loaded field. Auburn also beat Houston essentially on the road at the Toyota Center, home of the Houston Rockets.
Meanwhile, Duke has also faced multiple hard opponents already, but with mixed results. The Blue Devils lost to Kansas and Kentucky on neutral courts and beat Arizona by double-digits on the road. That true road victory is notable, though the losses are worrisome. Both saw Flagg make crucial mistakes in the final possessions as the veteran Kentucky and Kansas squads edged out wins.
On that note, Auburn's deep and experienced roster is a difference-maker and can help it overcome a challenging road environment. The Tigers start five seniors with three more coming off the bench. Top-35 freshman point guard Tahaad Pettiford is the only outlier but he's playing at a high level on both ends of the floor so far.
Compare that to Duke, which relies a bit too heavily on its freshmen to match Auburn's physical veteran lineups. The Blue Devils' offense features Flagg and Kon Knueppel in big roles early on. The youngsters have NBA-ready talent but we've seen some normal freshman struggles game-to-game from both. Plus, Duke isn't getting consistent production from its supporting cast to feel confident in the offense if Flagg and/or Knueppel are limited.
Auburn presents a tough matchup both offensively and defensively for Duke here. The Tigers' frontcourt duo of Broome and Dylan Cardwell won't back down to Flagg and could own the paint for stretches. Plus, Duke may not have a defensive answer for slowing down Broome. Auburn's hounding backcourt defense stepped up in Maui to shut down top-tier guards. It held UNC's RJ Davis to 12 points, Memphis' Tyrese Hunter to 11 points and Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey to six points.
Duke's homecourt advantage can't be ignored tonight. Still, Auburn comes in as the better and more proven team over the first month of the season. The Tigers' older, deeper roster can lead them to another win over a top program. Let’s take Auburn to cover this short spread either way.
Pick: Auburn +2.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh at Mississippi State (-5.5) | O/U 149.5 (-106/-114)
There may be some more high-profile SEC/ACC Challenge games tonight. Still, this Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State matchup features a pair of one-loss teams who are both in the top 30 NET Rankings. It's a fascinating non-conference showdown, so let's see how to bet it.
Pittsburgh is among the biggest early-season risers in college basketball. The Panthers boast wins over Ohio State, LSU and West Virginia with a six-point loss to Wisconsin on the resume as well. They have a top-15 offense and a top-30 defense, per KenPom, while scoring 85.1 points per game PPG. The impressive start has Pitt up to fifth in the NET Rankings, 12th at KenPom and 18th in the AP Top 25 Men’s Collge Basketball Poll.
Despite all of that, Mississippi State is favored at home tonight for a few reasons. The Bulldogs' resume isn't as good as Pitt's, but they still have encouraging results in recent games. They beat Utah at home and SMU on the road before crushing UNLV by 22 points on a neutral court. Then Mississippi State lost to Butler on a neutral court last time out, which should have Chris Jans' squad motivated to get back into the win column here.
Besides the past results, Mississippi State has a clear depth advantage tonight. The Bulldogs employ a rotation of 9-10 players with seven being seniors or juniors. Program veterans Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy make up a strong frontcourt while transfers Riley Kugel, Claudell Harris, RJ Melendez and Kanye Clary provide valuable experience at each position. Electric sophomore point guard Josh Hubbard also brings scoring prowess, averaging 19.1 PPG this season.
With this deep veteran roster, Mississippi State boasts the second-best offensive turnover rate in the country. Plus, the defense is forcing 15.9 turnovers per game (16th nationally among power conference teams) while holding opponents to 68.9 PPG. The Bulldogs' ability to win the turnover battle at home is a big deal in this matchup.
As for Pittsburgh, its lack of depth could be an issue with Houston transfer Damian Dunn sidelined for the next few weeks. Dunn was a double-digit scorer this season and his absence now forces the offense to be too reliant on guards Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett. They're talented but the Panthers lack consistent production on both ends of the floor outside of those two.
In stark contrast to its opponent tonight, Pitt is 301st nationally in bench minutes this season. Freshmen Amsal Delalic and Brandin Cummings are now being thrust into much bigger roles with Dunn out. That's a big ask in general but especially on the road in an unfamiliar road environment against an experienced and deep team, no less.
Interestingly, this is a rematch of the 2023 First Four game when Pitt beat Mississippi State to advance into the NCAA Tournament bracket. The Bulldogs still have some players left from that squad and should be motivated at home. Plus, it's worth noting that the SEC just went 9-1 against the ACC in yesterday's Challenge games.
Pick: Mississippi State -5.5 (-110)
Oregon (-6.5) at USC | O/U 147.5 (-102/-120)
Our last college basketball pick tonight brings us to a conference matchup between Oregon and USC. These former Pac-12 foes are now in the Big Ten and will play in their debut league games of the season here. Although the Ducks are on the road, they are a better team than USC and should win comfortably.
Oregon just took down the Players Era tournament, beating Alabama 83-81 in the title game. That win alone over a Final Four team from last year and a current National Championship contender is impressive enough. The Ducks also beat San Diego State and Texas A&M in the bracket - both by 10 points apiece.
It was a coming-out party for an Oregon team 8-0 on the season with one of the strongest non-conference resumes in the spot. The Ducks have an ideal blend of holdovers from last season's tournament team (Jackson Shelstad, Jadrian Tracey and Kwame Evans) with key transfers added in (Brandon Angel, TJ Bamba and Supreme Cook). Plus, Nate Bittle and Keeshawn Barthelemy are both back from injury after missing the second half of last year.
Oregon is 20th in offense and 31st in defense efficiencies, per KenPom. The Ducks have proven they are a force to be reckoned with and are now real contenders to win the Big Ten. It starts tonight in an arena where they beat USC by nine points on the road last season. Oregon is also 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Trojans in the past five meetings.
As for USC, Eric Musselman's squad is going through early-season growing pains and has yet to prove it can beat tough competition. The Trojans have played three "good" opponents and lost all three games. It started with a 71-66 home loss to California before Saint Mary's and New Mexico both beat them by double-digits on a neutral court last week.
Overall, USC is 98th in offense and 137th in defense, per KenPom, with a 1-7 ATS record thus far. Musselman had to remake the entire roster once he came over from Arkansas. The team hasn't gelled yet. The slew of transfers may click as the season progresses but they're not there right now. Take Oregon to cover as road favorites.
Pick: Oregon -6.5 (-102)