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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/14)

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Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. It’s been a wacky-wavy-inflatable-armed-tubed-man level of a season, with some crazy games even just last night. College basketball is difficult to handicap already but this year has been especially interesting. Now that we’re well into February, it’s time to ask big questions like, “Is it March yet?” I cannot wait for the madness!

Here are my best bets for Wednesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.

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Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 43-39

South Carolina at Auburn

It isn’t the most exciting slate of games this evening, but every day with college basketball is yet another blessing. Despite what the spread may suggest, the Auburn Tigers will be hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks for the most exciting game of the evening. 

It feels like all South Carolina does is win, which is nearly accurate. Sitting at 21-3 with a seven-game winning streak, it is surprising that many sites have this as a double-digit game. Lamont Paris’ squad is going to slow down this game to a crawl, rebound their misses, and limit Auburn’s scoring near the glass.

The Tigers, on the other hand, are looking to capitalize on the advanced home court that the Neville Arena has to offer. They’ll lean on their top-ranked interior defense while trying to run in transition.

South Carolina must control the pace if they want to win this game. Auburn likes to push the pace and ranks sixth in bench minutes; if the Gamecocks try to keep up, they will be blown out of the water. If South Carolina can trust their interior, and Auburn’s deep shots aren’t falling, I expect this game to be close.

Still, there’s a lot that can happen here. What I love seeing when handicapping a game like this is South Carolina’s 358th-ranked pace. That disrupts Bruce Pearl’s squad, and I expect Auburn to struggle with scoring. With both defenses lining up well and a big pace-down spot for Auburn, I’ll happily grab the under here.        

Play: Under 139.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Michigan State at Penn State 

After losing each of their last two road games, to Minnesota and Wisconsin, Michigan State fell to 1-5 in true road games this year, with their only win coming by two points against Maryland. This is a team that truly struggles away from home, and their 356th rank in that category per Haslametrics reflects that. 

It helps that Penn State is no goliath. Ranking 88th in KenPom with a 12-12 record, there is a chance that Michigan State walks into Bryce Jordan Center and gets a clean dub, buzzer to buzzer. However, the overall statistical profile of Penn State does not reflect the team they currently are. 

The Nittany Lions are 3-1 in their last four games with two solid road wins. Ace Baldwin popped off against Iowa, scoring 22 points in a double-digit victory over the Hawkeyes. I expect Penn State to keep this game close, simply because Michigan State allows the perimeter look often, and at home, Penn State will take and make those shots. With their feisty defense – ranked 19th in defensive turnover percentage – Penn State might not win this game, but they will at least keep it close.        

Play: Penn State +4.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Xavier at Seton Hall

Finally, we have the bubble game to end all bubble games. On Bracket Matrix right now, Seton Hall sits as the first team out. At 15-9, they have some solid wins over UConn and Butler, with only a few losses that stand out on their resume.

Xavier, despite having a 13-11 record, is liked by the metrics with a difficult strength of schedule. This is a toss-up game, with the Big East being a bonanza in conference play this year. Both teams will rebound well, but I think Seton Hall has the advantage. Ranking ninth in offensive rebounding percentage and sixth in second-chance conversion percentage, even if both teams have off days shooting, Seton Hall be better.

If Xavier hopes to win, they need to depend on their pace and shoot well from beyond the arc, which they can do. The Pirates will allow the perimeter shot plenty and Seton Hall cannot score from deep all that well. It is a true battle of mid, but I expect the advantage to go to Seton Hall here. Playing at home with a bit more on the line and a bit more momentum recently, I’ll take the Pirates.     

Play: Seton Hall (-110 on DraftKings)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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