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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/6)

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Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. Conference tournaments are rolling, the sun is shining, and I can almost hear the Selection Sunday bells. There are some crucial bubble games in the Big East and Big Ten that almost feel like must-win for all four teams involved. Once we get over this hump day we will finally have the first auto-bids of 2024. What a time to be alive.  

Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.  

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Wednesday’s Best College Basketball Bets

Last Time: 2-0 | Season: 49-46

Villanova at Seton Hall

From where Villanova ranked at the beginning of the season, to their five-game losing streak in the middle of the year, to now, it's been quite a roller coaster for the northeastern blue blood. Kyle Neptune has led his squad to win six of his last eight games, and seemingly into the tournament field as the bracket currently sits. 

Seton Hall is in a similar situation, with a little less impressive resume. At 18-11, they've lost their last two games, by a lot. The Pirates are desperate for a bounce-back win after losing each of their last two matchups by 20-plus points. They lost their last matchup to Villanova by a similar amount, so they have to be hungry for revenge as well.

Shaheen Holloway has to change the game plan and take risks here if he expects to win. The way Seton Hall lines up against Villanova isn't ideal. They allow a lot of deep looks and that's where Nova loves to shoot. Haslametrics projects nearly half of Nova's shots to come from beyond the arc. I'm not sure if the Wildcats will shoot 46 percent like they did in their last game, but even averaging 35 percent would be a comfortable win for Kyle Neptune and Co.

On the other side of the ball, Seton Hall depends a lot on grabbing boards and scoring on the interior, which Nova excels at defending. Only 46 percent of opponents’ points come from inside the arc for Nova, ranking 326th in the nation. Seton Hall will have to depend on perimeter scoring if they hope to win, and they do not have many sharp-shooters. 

If we're playing the home-court advantage game, Seton Hall wins mightily. Otherwise, there aren't many ticks in the box for the Pirates. Villanova is the better team and playing better basketball right now. I will say that with Nova's dependency on the deep ball, there are a lot of outcomes depending on how hot or cold they are, so I would recommend teasing out this game either way. However, if I'm a betting man, which I am, I expect the Wildcats to win. 

Play: Villanova +1.5 (-122 on FanDuel)

Northwestern at Michigan State

This game is a bit hard to handicap considering how many players are injured for Northwestern. Ryan Langborg and Matthew Nicholson are both questionable with Ty Berry already out for the year. There's a reason why the Wildcats find themselves as an eight-point underdog.

Still, I'm surprised at how large of a spread this game has. Against Iowa, the Northwestern sophomores held their own and it's not as if Michigan State exactly pushes the pace, playing at the 308th-ranked pace in the country. 

This game will be won and lost at the three-point line. Both teams rank in the top-25 from deep and both opposing defenses are susceptible to allowing the three-ball. Each squad should limit any transition play, and it's not as if there will be many second-chance looks with limited offensive boards. 

Still, Michigan State and Northwestern both play methodical basketball. They take care of the ball, run their sets, and get good looks and shots up most possessions. I understand how much of a home-court advantage there is in East Lansing, but I simply think with the fewer possessions, Northwestern's perimeter shooting, and overweight spread in Michigan State's favor based on current injuries, this is an easy side to pick.   

Play: Northwestern +8.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

UConn at Marquette

I didn't mean to bury the lede as this is the clear blockbuster game of the night, but I had to give love to the bubble squads. When these squads faced off a few weeks back, UConn won by 18 and led by as many as 31. It was pure domination.  

Considering Tyler Kolek is out and Oso Ighodaro is questionable, tonight might be more of the same. Even if Ighodaro plays, UConn will dominate the glass with the 11th-highest offensive rebound rate. Marquette loves the interior look but Connecticut owns the second-best near-proximity defense in the league.

Whatever Shaka Smart’s game plans here, I expect UConn to be ready for it. After being handled on the road at Creighton, I am slightly worried about being so confident in the Huskies, but they really can do it all. The Golden Eagles' free throw rate is low, so their shooting will have to be electric to keep this close. Don't be afraid to back the better team here, especially considering how Marquette plays without their star player.

Play: UConn -5.0 (-115 on DraftKings)

BYU at Iowa State

In terms of home-court advantage, there may not be a bigger advantage than the Hilton Coliseum. BYU shoots A LOT of threes, like the most in the league. That is where you should attack this Iowa State defense if there is anywhere to go after the Cyclones, hence the 87-72 victory for the Cougars in January against Iowa State. 

BYU attempted 35 threes in that game and was handed 24 free throws. Iowa State left a lot on the floor, shooting 28 percent from beyond the arc and missing nine free throws. The Cyclones rank third in home-court play while BYU ranks 351st in away-from-home rankings per Haslametrics. Don't expect the same result as last time.

Still, with the pure number of shot attempts that I expect in this game, I can't imagine there to be fewer than 146 points. If BYU shoots worse than last game with Iowa State improving to average, they would still cover the total easily. This should be a fun game to watch, and an easy game to root for points.

Play: Over 146 (-118 on DraftKings) 

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