College Basketball Parlay Picks for Monday, February 28th (2022)
As we head into the final week of the regular season, some teams need to make statements. In all three of these matchups, one team needs to end the regular season on a positive note if they want to boost their resumes before the big dance.
Bet $10, Win $200 if Baylor or Texas Hits a Three-Pointer >>
Syracuse vs. North Carolina (-7.5) O/U 156.5 (Tip 7 p.m. ET)
Syracuse needed a win or at least to play close against Duke if they wanted a shot at the tournament, but with the 97-72 loss, only an ACC tournament win will get them dancing. Their offense is one of the best in the country, as they are KenPom’s 16th best in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are fourth in the ACC in scoring. Buddy Boheim is the ACC’s second-best scorer due to his volume three-point shooting as he averages over eight per game, but Joseph Girard III is also proficient from three as he hits 41% of them and Cole Swider shoots just over 39%. What’s been the Orange’s problem all season is the defense. They’re 221st in adjusted defense, according to KenPom. They haven’t been strong on the boards, especially as they’re 321st in defensive rebounding percentage. With center Jesse Edwards out for the remainder of the year, it just makes matters worse.
The Tar Heels have a decent record of 21-8 and 13-5 in the ACC, but they need some strong wins to get a higher seed in the tournament. This season they’re 0-5 against ranked opponents and are currently projected as a 12-seed according to the Bracket Matrix. A simple win here isn’t going to boost their resume, but in the game preceding the regular-season finale in Durham, they need to dominate this game. As mentioned previously, Cuse can’t rebound, and that plays to the strength of North Carlina as they’re 18th nationally in rebounds per game (39.5). They outrebound their opponents by 7.6 boards which is 10th in the nation.
Duke attempted 32 three-pointers in their win against Syracuse. North Carolina has Caleb Love, Brady Manek, and R.J. Davis, who are all shooting over 38% from beyond three. Look for them to take the same approach because they know they can outrebound the Orange and have second-chance opportunities.
No. 10 Baylor (-1.5) vs. No. 20 Texas O/U 134.5 (Tip 9 p.m. ET)
Baylor is riding sky-high as they head into the final week of the regular season. They’ve rattled off three-straight wins, including a ten-point victory over No. 5 Kansas. They have another tough game on the road in Austin, but you have to like the matchup. With the Bears grabbing 36.7% of their offensive rebounds, they rank seventh in the country, while the Longhorns rank 235th in defensive rebounding. Texas will also be without forward Tre Mitchell (personal) for this game, and this should allow Baylor to clean up on the glass. Baylor will be down an important player in L.J. Cryer, who’s leading the team in three-point percentage (46.2%). This should allow Adam Flagler, who already leads the team with 63 shots from behind the arc, to chuck up even more.
The challenge for Baylor is if they can get through the nation’s fifth-best scoring defense (55.8 points allowed per game). Andrew Jones, Timmy Allen, and Marcus Carr all average a steal a game, so Texas has a chance to stay competitive if they get some extra possessions. The Longhorns will not be able to keep up with Baylor by shooting three’s — they shoot just 32.6% from three, and Baylor is holding opponents to 29..7%. But Texas can shoot inside very well as they make 52.5% of their points through two-pointers and Baylor is allowing 48.9% from inside the arc. They need to move the ball inside if they want to stay close.
Baylor comes into this game as a short spread road-favorite. If this goes any higher than a one-possession spread, I’d say go under the total or the Bears on the money line, but with Baylor’s superior shooting and advantage on the boards, they’re a good choice.
No. 12 UCLA (-10.5) vs. Washington O/U 139.5 (Tip 11 p.m. ET)
UCLA needs to prove last season was not a fluke, and they can get back to the Final Four. At times, they shoot very well, including the 16-point win over Arizona, where they hit 50%. But they also can be cold, like in the recent game against Oregon or that early-season marquee game against Gonzaga when they shot under 40%. This can be a get-right game before their season-ending finale against USC. Washington is allowing opponents to shoot 44.7%, which is 261st in the nation.
Washington had a good start to the conference schedule as they devoured the bottom feeders of the PAC-12. They then ran into the buzzsaw of three straight games against Arizona, USC, and UCLA, which resulted in losing four straight. They run a high-speed offense, and while it helps them score over 70 points per game, they are shooting just over 40% this season. By playing quicker, it allows their opponents extra possessions. They have not played well on defense as they’re 11th in the conference, allowing 72.9 points per game.
The Bruins beat the Huskies by 15 in Washington, and they should have no problem taking care of them at home. The last matchup was one of UCLA’s better shooting nights (47.6%). This should put them in a confident spot as they head into their season finale against the Trojans.
Total Parlay (PointsBet): +627
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