College Basketball Parlay Picks for Tuesday, March 8th (2022)
It’s conference tournament week we are just a few days from Selection Sunday. We get our first set of matchups from the power conference as the ACC tournament begins in Brooklyn. Let’s take a look at the three games going on at the Barclays.
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Boston College (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh O/U 129 (Tip 2 p.m ET)
Pitt is on a four-game losing streak as they hit the conference tournament, but they're still playing their style of ball — physical inside and a good presence on the boards. They need to continue playing their game, and that's driving to the lane and drawing the foul. The Panthers are the best team in the ACC at getting to the charity stripe with 55 more attempts than the next team, and if this game gets close, that could be the key down the stretch. John Hugely is their best player and needs to channel the 32-point performance from the first matchup this year. BC was able to contain him in that second game, so the perimeter shooting needs to be better, especially from Mouhamadou Gueye from the wing, alleviated some pressure in the paint.
But Boston College has played pretty well on the boards themselves, and they can grab the offensive rebounds and allow for second-chance points. They can't hack at Pitt as they did in the two-point loss when the Eagles allowed the Panthers to take 28 free throws and converted 23. They were able to keep it in check the second time around with just 15 in the win.
These teams shoot poorly from the outside, so it will come down to who's better inside. The spread with these two teams shows they’re evenly matched, so go look at the total. I like Hugely to have a game similar to the first matchup, at a 129 total, it will sneak just over.
Pick: Over 129
NC State vs. Clemson (-5.5) O/U 142.5 (Tip 4:30 p.m. ET)
NC State has some talented scorers, but the issue has been their defense during the season. While their adjusted offense comes in at a solid 66th, their adjusted defense is 257th, according to KenPom. The biggest culprit has been their three-point defense, as they’re allowing opponents to shoot 36%, but they make up for it by shooting threes of their own. Guard Terquavion Smith leads the conference with 96 three-pointers made, and Jericole Hellems is seventh at 70. The Wolfpack are a well-disciplined offensive as they’re just 17th in the country with just 10.2 turnovers per game, and that’s going to play a factor in this game.
That’s because Clemson does force turnovers at all is, as they’re 281st in turnovers forced (11.4). When you compare these teams, you see similarities — the Tigers also struggle on the defense as they’re allowing 50% from inside the arc and 33.5% from three, but they also have dangerous weapons that shoot from outside. Al-Amir Dawes is Clemson’s answer to canceling out Smith as he’s second in the conference by shooting 40.7 from three.
We have two teams whose defenses are not strong suits, but both have strong offensives and lights out from three. In the last matchup, NC State shot poorly overall at 31.7%, but hitting nine threes and seven more free throws than Clemson is what kept them in the 70-65 loss. The Wolfpack will continue to chuck it from deep, and the volume shooting from behind the arc is what will help them cover.
Pick: NC State +5.5
Georgia Tech vs. Louisville (-1.5) O/U 135 (Tip 7 p.m. ET)
Although Louisville is coming in with a losing streak, they are still playing pretty well. They continue to move the ball around, find the high percentage shots, and defend the boards. The Cardinals were able to get a +11 rebound margin in their last matchup against NC State, and as they hold the size advantage, they’ll need to it if they want to move onto the next round.
The big weakness of Louisville is the frontcourt tends to turn the ball over a lot, as during their recent losing streak, they’ve turned the ball over a staggering 54 times. This is right in Georgia Tech’s wheelhouse as they’ve forced the third-most turnovers in the ACC (400) and should manage to get some steals to push the ball for breakaway points. They need to hit their hits shots because when they do, they’re tough to beat — The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 when shooting over 40% from three and Louisville is not very good at holding it down on the perimeter as they’re finished tenth in the ACC in three-point percentage.
It's been a rough last few weeks for Louisville when you look at what the turning over the ball has cost them. If Tech weren’t the best team in the conference in forcing turnovers, it wouldn’t be as big of an advantage, but that stat is impossible to ignore. Although this is the same spread Pitt and BC, Georgia Tech is the better team right now and they’re going to pull off the upset.
Pick: Georgia Tech +1.5
Total Parlay (PointsBet): +595
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