College Basketball Parlay Picks, Thursday March 3rd
Well, we have officially made it to the most wonderful time of the year, March. This week is just the beginning of the madness, as we have mid-major conference tournaments going on while the Power 6 conferences wrap up their regular seasons. There are many angles to find during this time, but I have found three that will help you kick March off the right way for today.
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TCU vs. No. 6 Kansas (8 PM ET Tip)
The Horned Frogs and the Kansas Jayhawks are in a rare spot as this will be their second meeting in just three days. TCU pulled off a major upset on Saturday when they defeated the Jayhawks. The loss also marked the first time Kansas had lost two games in a row this season. However, the series will head back to Allen Fieldhouse, and the Jayhawks are certainly going to be motivated to avenge their loss.
Looking back to the first matchup, it was a tremendous defensive performance by TCU. They held the number four ranked offense in adjusted efficiency to just 35 percent inside the arc. They also contained Big 12 player of the year candidate Ochai Agbaji to just 13 points as he went 4 of 17 from the field. It was one of the Jayhawks’ worst offensive performances of the season, and I am hard-pressed to believe that they will shoot like that again. It is not an easy task for the Jayhawks as the Horned Frogs are 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency and the number one offensive rebounding team in the nation. Still, with the loss so fresh, you can bet on Bill Self adjusting accordingly.
UCF vs. Tulane (8 PM ET Tip)
Next, we head down to New Orleans, where the wrong team is favored. The UCF Golden Knights won their first meeting with Tulane earlier this season by a slim margin, and now they are slight underdogs on the road. However, by all accounts, UCF is the better team here. Not only are the six spots higher in KenPom’s rankings, but they are the more battle-tested team that has won quite a few of them. UCF has victories over Michigan, Miami, and Memphis. Tulane played a very soft non-conference schedule and lost to every quality team in the AAC.
Going back to the matchup, the Golden Knight’s defense will make the difference here. They are 31st in three-point percentage, where Tulane gets a large chunk of their offense. The story is similar on the other end of the floor, but it will also favor UCF. Tulane is 294th in three-point percentage allowed, and nearly 42 percent of UCF’s shots are from behind the arc. So odds are they will get most of them to fall and pull off the “upset†here.
Detroit vs. Northern Kentucky (7 PM ET Tip)
This parlay would not be complete without a pick from a tournament in March. The Horizon Conference Tournament is one of the most interesting to watch as you could make an argument for nearly every team to be capable of winning it. That argument is no different for this matchup, as Northern Kentucky may be the slightly better team here. Still, Detroit is more than capable of knocking them off, as they showed during the regular season where they defeated them twice.
Diving into the numbers, it is clear that Detroit Mercy has the edge on one end and then is at a disadvantage on the other. The Titans are an excellent three-point shooting team as they rank 36th in three-point percentage and get the third-highest share of their points from behind the arc amongst all division one teams. On defense, there has been much of that played by Detroit this season as their 333rd effective field goal percentage ranking is ugly. Still, they played far better against conference opponents. They were seventh in the Horizon in effective field goal percentage allowed and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Overall, the Titans are not getting enough respect here and should cover this number.
Parlay Odds: +567
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Douglas Ziefel is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Douglas, check out his archive.