College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets & Predictions: Tuesday & Wednesday (12/27 – 12/28)

2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 25): 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%)
2022 combined: 96-70-4 ATS (57.8%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
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Camellia Bowl | Montgomery, AL
Tuesday, December 27 | 11:00 AM
Georgia Southern (-4) vs. Buffalo | Total: 67
ATL: GSU -4.1 | ATT: 69.5

Buffalo

• QB Matt Myers (Transfer Portal)
• QB Casey Case (Transfer Portal)
• RB Ron Cook Jr. (Injury)
• RB Al-Jay Henderson (Injury)
• WR Jamari Gassett (Transfer Portal)
• TE Trevor Borland (Transfer Portal)

Neither RB Cook nor RB Henderson played in the finale against Akron, the game Buffalo won to achieve bowl eligibility. Cook hasn’t played since Nov. 9. The pair combined for 901 rushing yards this season.

WR Gassett was the team’s WR3. QB Myers was the team’s running option at quarterback. He was used much more in that capacity down the stretch with RBs Cook and Henderson down. Myers rushed for 110 yards and three TD in the second-to-last-game against Kent State. But he didn’t suit up for the finale against Akron with one foot already out the door.

QB3 Case was a backup, but his loss along with Myers’ leaves Buffalo very thin at QB. If QB1 Cole Snyder were to go down, Buffalo would be down to its fourth-stringer.

Georgia Southern

• WR Derwin Burgess Jr. (Injury)
• WR Amare Jones (Injury)
• WR Sam Kenerson (Injury)
• LS Mark Langston (Injury)
• DL Latrell Bullard (Injury)
• CB Derrick Canteen (Transfer Portal)

CB Canteen announced his intention to transfer on Dec. 13, but he did not specify whether or not he would stick around to play in this game. It would be a big loss for GSU if Canteen opts out. Canteen was a national All-Freshman team in his debut campaign and during the regular season, he posted 64 tackles.

Canteen was easily GSU’s best cover corner as well as its most-valuable defender overall. GSU has two starting-caliber G5 corners that are still active. But if Canteen is out, you not only lose your best defender, but the depth behind the starters is very thin.

WRs Burgess Jr., Jones, Kenerson, LS Langston, and DL Bullard are out for the season with injuries.

WRs Burgess Jr. and Jones were starters. Fortunately, GSU still has its two-best receivers in WRs Jeremy Singleton and Khaleb Hood. But it’s fair to say that GSU QB Kyle Vantrease’s secondary options were slashed following the injuries to Burgess Jr. and Jones.

Handicap
It’s been an odd season for the Bulls. Buffalo started 0-3, including a home loss to FCS Holy Cross before ripping off five-straight wins to improve to 5-3.

But one win away from bowl eligibility, Buffalo lost three straight (including to lowly CMU and Kent State), needing a made-up game win over Akron in the finale – Buffalo trailed throughout before scoring a last-second TD to win 23-22 – to reach the postseason.

So here’s the question with Buffalo: Are they the crappy team who started 0-3 and finished 1-3 (almost 0-4)? Or the team who won five straight in the middle? Or are they somewhere in between? Let’s investigate the win streak.

Of the five opponents Buffalo played during that stretch – EMU, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Toledo, and Massachusetts – three-of-five were playing with a backup quarterback (in one case, the QB3). And if you look at the entire schedule, Buffalo played a backup quarterback in five-of-11 games against FBS opponents this fall.

Buffalo is lucky to be here. And speaking to the Bulls’ end-of-season struggles: I was told before the Akron game – which the Bulls were never even remotely close to covering – that Buffalo’s players had internally contemplated turning down a bowl offer were it to win and qualify.

The Bulls finished No. 53 EPA against the pass – and we know that standing is inflated (again: the Bulls faced only five FBS starting quarterbacks this fall). Pass defense is a weakness of Buffalo’s and Georgia Southern’s offense is equipped to exploit it down-in and down-out.

GSU HC Clay Helton was one of the nation’s biggest under-the-radar success stories in Year 1. Helton took over a triple-option roster and immediately turned it into an up-tempo Air Raid – somehow, Georgia Southern was immediately competitive.

GSU wasn’t as strong at the end of the campaign as it was during the start of it, in large part due to injuries. But QB Vantrease – who is in a revenge spot against his former school – is one player who has been allowed to mend his bumps and bruises during the month off.

While GSU has a dangerous offense, the Eagles’ defense is awful (No. 124). So even though Buffalo’s personnel in the run game is as nicked-up as GSU’s receiving corps became, the Bulls could put up points, too. I’m seeing a GSU 41-31 type outcome but due to the variance inherent here, I’m going to stay away from the total and just back GSU.

The pick: Georgia Southern -4
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First Responder Bowl | Dallas, TX
Tuesday, December 27 | 2:15 PM
Memphis (-7.5) vs. Utah State | Total: 61.5
ATL: Memphis -14.3 | ATT: 62

Memphis

• RB Brandon Thomas (Injury)
• WR Koby Drake (Injury)
• WR Joe Scates (Injury)
• EDGE Warren Peeples (Transfer portal)
• CB Julian Barnett (Unknown)
• CB Julian Barnett (Unknown)

RB Thomas was lost for the season in mid-November. Fortunately, Memphis still has two healthy backs of analogous talent in Jevyon Ducker and Asa Martin, so Thomas’ loss has been mitigated.

WRs Scates and Drake are questionable for the bowl with injuries. Neither are difference-makers, but both see the field when active. CB/S Hastings began the season as the starter but hasn’t played since mid-October – PFF panned his work through the first six games (54.5 grade).

Reserve CB Barnett (26 snaps) is out indefinitely for undisclosed reasons. EDGE Peeples only saw 25 snaps in the fall.

Utah State

• QB Logan Bonner (Injury)
• QB Levi Williams (Injury)
• RB Robert Briggs (Injury)
• RB John Gentry (Transfer portal)
• WR Kyle Van Leeuwen (Injury)
• WR Xavier Williams (Transfer portal)
• DT Phillip Paea (Injury)
• DE John Ward (Injury)
• CB Ajani Carter (Injury)
• CB Michael Anyanwu (Injury)
• S Luke Marion (Transfer portal)

RB Calvin Tyler Jr., who ran for 1,043 yards as USU’s RB1, declared for the NFL Draft and was originally reported as having opted out. However, the 2022 second-team All-MWC pick will play in the bowl – as he (very politely) tweeted at me on Wednesday night.

This is big news for an Aggies offense that otherwise appeared decimated and was looking at the prospect of starting an RB3 next to its QB3 in the bowl game.

Tyler Jr. was the offense’s highest-graded PFF player among those with 200 or more snaps but if you change the cut-off to 195, he’s actually slightly bested by RB2 Briggs. Unfortunately, Briggs is injured and won’t play. Neither will RB5 Gentry, who didn’t see a snap in the regular season.

Gentry was a consensus top-750 overall recruit coming out of high school who USU probably could have used in this game. Interestingly, when the media asked Tyler Jr. about his breakout season, he credited Gentry as being “the most important teammate this year” due to his practice habits.

But with Tyler active for the bowl season, Utah State’s running back situation is stabilized. The Aggies can mix in RB3 Pailate Makakona (who took only 48 snaps this year) and RB4 Jordan Wilmore (a Utah transfer who didn’t play in September or October but had seven carries in the finale) behind him.

The quarterback room has been decimated for most of the campaign.QB1 Bonner is out for the year with a lower-body injury suffered in September. QB2 Williams is almost assuredly out for this game as well following an ankle injury in late November.

Bonner’s early-season play significantly dropped off in comparison to his previous three seasons. QB3 Cooper Legas will likely start again. Judged against Bonner’s 2022 regression, Legas is only a slight downgrade. Judged against Bonner’s 2021, Legas is a big downgrade. QB Bonner announced he will declare for the 2023 NFL Draft in mid-December.

In part because of injuries, the Aggies’ offense fell from No. 19 last season to No. 92 in the regular season. USU finished No. 99 in scoring and No. 128 in the red zone.

USU HC Blake Anderson has expressed confidence that starting CBs Carter and Anyanwu, along with second-string DE John Ward, will be able to return from injuries for the bowl game. WR Van Leeuwen and DT Paea were both lost for the season in September. WR Williams and S Marion were scarcely used in the fall, they’re moving on in search of more playing time.

Coaching News
Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield – rumored to be on the hot seat – was told he will return next season.

Handicap
My system is all-over Memphis – this is one of the three-strongest positions it is taking over the entire bowl slate. This presents something of a quandary to me personally. I don’t trust Tigers’ HC Ryan Silverfield as far as I can throw him.

But I’m not able to walk away from the on-paper spread value my system is showing on Memphis.

Especially since it lines up with the on-field handicap: Memphis’ No. 20 SP+ offense against Utah State’s No. 116 SP+ defense is the biggest offense-on-defense mismatch in the entire bowl slate. It’s a given that the Tigers will move the ball at will.

Memphis’ ground game should pick up and keep the offense on schedule against a horrific USU run defense. The Tigers also won’t have an issue throwing. The Tigers have a good pass offense (No. 43 success rate).

Utah State’s pass defense ranks No. 32 success rate, but it’s flattered by that standing. The Aggies rank No. 15 in opposing air yards per pass, and No. 100 in explosion against. What that means is opponents successfully hunt for deep shots early and often, eschewing singles because home runs are often available. This props up USU’s success rate while tanking all other ancillary pass defense metrics.

On the other side of the ball, Utah State’s offense is a run-first outfit. Having Tyler active is a boon for an offense that is so out-manned at other positions but Tyler won’t have much in the way of depth behind him, and, unfortunately for USU, Memphis’ run defense is strong.

Utah State would be better off throwing nearly every down here. Memphis’ defensive weakness is against the pass but is that viable for USU with its young, third-string quarterback when that plan of attack is diametrically opposed to how USU played the entire season?

The pick: Memphis -7.5
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Birmingham Bowl | Birmingham, AL
Tuesday, December 27 | 5:45 PM
East Carolina (-7) vs. Coastal Carolina | Total: 62.5
ATL: ECU -5.8 | ATT: 63

East Carolina

• QB Bryce Carpenter (Suspension)
• OC Willie Lampkin (Transfer portal)
• DE Josaiah Stewart (Transfer portal)
• CB Manny Stokes (Transfer portal)
• CB Zxaequan Reeves (Transfer portal)
• S Dre Pinckney (Injury/Portal)

QB Grayson McCall is in the transfer portal – but in a surprising twist, McCall announced he would play in the bowl game before transferring. McCall returned from a foot injury to start in the Sun Belt title game but clearly wasn’t 100% in that game. If he’s indeed playing in the bowl, the extra three-and-a-half weeks to heal will likely do the foot some good. McCall has been named the Sun Belt’s Player of the Year in three-straight seasons. The drop-off between McCall and QB3 Jarrett Guest is the largest in the nation from a point-spread perspective. QB2 Carpenter is suspended due to an off-field incident.

McCall playing in the bowl is good news for Coastal. The bad news is that the Chants won’t be at full strength regardless.

OC Lampkin was a first-team All-Sun Belt selection who figures to be looking to move up to the P5. Coastal’s backup center took only 18 snaps. Lampkin was easily the team’s best offensive lineman. Without Lampkin, who transferred to UNC, Coastal Carolina will start an offensive line where none of the five starters had a PFF grade of even 65.0.

DE Stewart and CB Stokes were both contributors on defense. Stewart will particularly be missed after he logged 10 TFL during the regular season – he was the team’s best pass rusher. Stewart has signed with Michigan.

Coastal Carolina

• RB Rahjai Harris (Injury)
• TE Ryan Jones (Opt-out)
• C Avery Jones (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Elijah Robinson (Transfer portal)
• S Shawn Dourseau (Transfer portal)

TE Jones’ pass-catching ability will be missed against a rancid Coastal Carolina pass defense. He had a disappointing season, but there’s a qualitative drop-off to his backup nonetheless.

OC Jones was another starter. ECU’s backup center only was on the field for nine snaps this season. S Dourseau was a part-timer who logged 227 snaps.

Platoon RB Harris was knocked out for the season in October. EDGE Robinson was a little-used backup.

Coaching News
Coastal Carolina HC Jamey Chadwell accepted the same position at Liberty and will not coach in this game. The Chants hired NC State OC Tim Beck to replace Chadwell, but he will not coach in this game. Coastal named DC Chad Staggs interim coach for the bowl.

Handicap
Assuming Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall is playing – and he’s been emphatic that he is – this spread remains a little inflated. The market agrees with me. It has dropped from ECU -8.5 to ECU -7 in the past four days.

Both of these teams have rancid pass defenses. And both passing offenses are extremely dangerous.

The biggest issue for Coastal in this handicap becomes that while ECU is pass-first, CCU in the regular season wanted to establish the run. The Chants had a top-40 run rate on both standard and passing downs.

That’s the part that’s going to be an issue for Coastal, here. ECU has a really good front-seven and a really good run defense in general. The latter ranks No. 35 success rate and No. 6 in explosion.

ECU will successfully shut down CCU’s run game. Coastal’s offensive line was bad before and will be worse after OC Lampkin’s opt-out. But ECU has one of the nation’s worst pass defenses (No. 120 success rate) – McCall and crew are going to slice that up as often as the play-callers will dial it up.

There’s less of a question of ECU leaning into CCU’s defensive weakness. ECU is already a pass-first team, and a strong one at that – ECU’s passing attack ranks No. 25 in success rate. Meanwhile, CCU’s pass defense is an abomination, ranking No. 108 success rate and No. 125 explosion.

But in a reality where both teams threw roughly the same amount of times, this game would be close to a coin flip. And with a new staff in for Coastal, I’m banking on the interim brass allowing McCall to go out with a bang against ECU’s feeble secondary.

I’m taking ECU to win, but Coastal to stay within this bloated number.

The pick: Coastal Carolina +7
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Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Phoenix, AZ
Tuesday, December 27 | 9:15 PM
Wisconsin (-3.5) vs. Oklahoma State | Total: 43
ATL: OSU -2.3 | ATT: 39

Oklahoma State

• QB Spencer Sanders (Transfer portal)
• RB Dominic Richardson (Transfer portal)
• WR Jaden Bray (Injury)
• WR Bryson Green (Injury)
• WR Braylin Presley (Transfer portal)
• WR Langston Anderson (Transfer portal)
• C Eli Russ (Transfer portal)
• DT Brendon Evers (Opt-out)
• DE Trace Ford (Transfer portal)
• DE Tyler Lacy (Opt-out)
• LB Mason Cobb (Transfer portal)
• LB Na’Drian Dizadare (Transfer portal)
• CB Thomas Harper (Transfer portal)
• S Kanion Williams (Transfer portal)

QB Sanders’ shocking transfer leaves Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel at quarterback. Neither of the latter two is appealing option to start this game. Gundy and Rangel combined to complete 52% of passes with a 5/7 TD/INT ratio this year filling in for Sanders. The pair also doesn’t provide the rushing utility that Sanders did. Sanders finished No. 2 on the team in rushing. The leader, RB Richardson, won’t play either after announcing his intent to transfer.

WR Bray was shut down and will take a redshirt this season. WR Green didn’t play in the finale against West Virginia with an undisclosed injury. WR Braylin Presley was a reserve. OSU can still go three-wide with a trio that had 500-or-more snaps this fall with WRs Brennan Presley, John Paul Richardson, and Braydon Johnson – but depth has obviously taken a big hit.

DE Lacy was a 285-pound edge-setter who also chipped in 6.5 sacks the past two years. DE Ford and LB Cobb were starters and team leaders. Cobb had 96 tackles in the fall – he has transferred to USC.

DE Brock Martin, a second-time All-Big 12 selection, declared for the NFL Draft but announced he would play in this game. If he changed course, OSU would be in deep trouble on the edge.

Wisconsin

• QB Graham Mertz (Transfer portal)
• QB Deacon Hill (Transfer portal)
• RB Isaac Guerendo (Transfer portal)
• RB Braelon Allen (Injury)
• WR Stephan Bracey (Transfer portal)
• WR Markus Allen (Unknown status)
• TE Jaylan Franklin (Transfer portal)
• TE Clay Cundiff (Injury)
• TE Cam Large (Injury)
• TE Cole Dakovich (Injury)
• OT Logan Brown (Transfer portal)
• OG/TE Tyler Beach (Opt-out)
• OC Joe Tippman (Opt-out)
• NT Keeanu Benton (Opt-out)
• LB Tristan Monday (Transfer portal)
• LB Nick Herbig (Opt-out)
• CB Semar Melvin (Transfer portal)
• CB Jay Shaw (Opt-out)
• CB Justin Clark (Opt-out)
• S Titus Toler (Transfer portal)

QB Mertz, the longtime Badgers starter, is out the door. There were reports he would transfer to Kentucky to take over Will Levis’ former post, but Mertz is taking additional visits before making anything official. The Badgers are down to Chase Wolf and Myles Burkett at quarterback. That’ll probably come down to whether Wisconsin wants to reward the veteran Wolf in his last collegiate game or take the evaluation opportunity to get an extended look at the youngster Burkett.

RB Allen’s status is an open question mark. Allen seemed to shoot down rumors that he could transfer with a tweet after the regular season insinuating he was committed to Wisconsin. But Allen has a right leg injury that has tagged him with a questionable designation for this game.

RB Guerendo’s loss will be felt more on special teams, where he was the kick returner. WR Allen entered the portal, pulled out, and then returned to school. It is unclear if Allen will play in the bowl game.

TE Cundiff and TE Large were lost for the season earlier in the campaign. Between those losses, TE Franklin’s transfer, and TE Dakovich’s up-in-the-air health status, the Badgers are down to Jack Eschenbach and Hayden Rucci at TE. OC Tippman was a longtime starter along the offensive line who the NFL is highly interested in. Wisko’s OC2 took only 28 snaps this year. OG Beach and OT Brown were part-time starters. OG Michael Furtney entered the transfer portal but pulled out to return – it appears he will be active for the bowl.

NT Benton’s loss deprives the Badgers of their interior space clogger. Defensive end is the only position on the entire roster where Wisko appears to still be at full strength. The Badgers have only one remaining starter at corner, and the depth at that position is shot. Three-of-the-four top safeties are still around. That group may get more nickel responsibilities in this one.

Coaching News
New Wisconsin HC Luke Fickell won’t coach in this game but alluded to being around to help. He may get some input on personnel decisions, such as the starting quarterback decision. Fickell hired ex-UNC OC Phil Longo to call plays in 2023, but Longo’s system won’t be installed until the offseason. More topically to this game, Wisconsin’s interim HC Jim Leonhard, a favorite of players and the fanbase alike, will leave the program after this game following conversations with Fickell. The players figure to give Leonhard a strong effort in his last game with the school before moving on.

Handicap
With all the defections on both sides, this handicap is a crap shoot but I’m rolling up my sleeves and taking a side, anyway. My numbers – with all defections on both sides accounted for – believe that the wrong team is favored.

The Badgers lost more NFL talent – in sum, six Wisconsin starters declared for the NFL Draft – including All-American LB Nick Herbig, all-conference NT Keeanu Benton, intriguing NFL interior prospect C Joe Tippman, and starting CBs Justin Clark and Jay Shaw.

Oklahoma State will theoretically have a bigger drop-off at quarterback. But I say theoretical, because we actually saw OSU’s backups this fall, while Wisconsin’s attempted only 11 passes combined in garbage time. In addition, Wisconsin QB Mertz was better than OSU QB Sanders during the regular season.

The Badgers still have RB Braelon Allen – theoretically, as of this writing. But while Allen hasn’t opted out as of press time, Allen is nicked up and may not play due to health. Even if he does, he’s going to be running behind an offensive line starting at least one lineman who saw close-to-zero field time in the fall.

It’s also worth mentioning OSU’s enormous coaching edge – especially in this bowl matchup that nobody can seem to make heads or tails of. OSU HC Mike Gundy is 11-5 ATS career in bowls.

But it’s not just that. Over the years, we’ve learned that coaching experience matters in bowl games. In fact, since 2016, per VSIN, in bowl matchups where one side has a head coach with a 10-plus bowl game experience advantage over the opposing coach, the more experienced HC is 34-15-1 ATS (69.5%).

My system – with all opt-outs baked in – believes OSU should be favored. And if it was anywhere close, you’d lean toward OSU anyway with the coaching experience and bowl success of Gundy over the here-today, gone-tomorrow first-time-bowl-coach Jim Leonhard.

We’re holding our nose and calling for the upset.

The pick: Oklahoma State +3.5 | Under 43
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Military Bowl | Annapolis, MD
Wednesday, December 28 | 1:00 PM
Duke (-3) vs. UCF | Total: 62.5
ATL: UCF -5.5 | ATT: 61.5

Duke

• WR Darrell Harding Jr. (Transfer portal)
• LB Rocky Shelton II (Transfer portal)
• CB Tony Davis (Transfer portal)

All three were little-used reserves.

UCF

• QB Mikey Keene (Transfer portal)
• QB John Rhys Plumlee (Injury)
• WR Ryan O’Keefe (Transfer portal)
• WR Jordan Johnson (Transfer portal)
• WR Amari Johnson (Injury)
• TE Jordan Davis (Injury)
• LB Terrence Lewis (Transfer portal)
• CB Davonte Brown (Transfer portal)
• CB Travion Shadrick-Harris (Transfer portal)

QB Plumlee was badly beaten up at the end of the regular season, failing to complete or play in five of UCF’s last six games. His most recent injury, following a concussion and a shoulder issue, is a hamstring strain. Plumlee’s status is especially important to monitor with QB2 Keene in the transfer portal.

UCF’s freshman QB3 Thomas Castellanos played poorly in the finale when called upon. SI’s UCF blog wrote on Dec. 5: “[Plumlee is] no place near healthy right now” and “the hamstring is truly not responding to treatment. … In short, Castellanos will be far more prepared to play against Duke than he was Tulane.” Take that for what it’s worth. The team has been sparse with updates. Plumlee did announce he’s returning to UCF next season.

WR O’Keefe, LB Jean-Baptiste, and CB Brown were all starters. O’Keefe, who was the team’s leading receiver with 73 catches, transferred to Boston College. Jean-Baptiste, who was third on the Knights in tackles, transferred to Ole Miss. Brown stayed in-state and signed with Miami.

Coaching News
UCF OC Chip Lindsey accepted the same job at UNC on Dec. 15, replacing Phil Longo, who jumped to Luke Fickell’s new Wisconsin staff.

Handicap
Duke HC Mike Elko might have been our Coach of the Year if we had a vote. He improved Duke from 3-9 last year under David Cutcliffe to 8-4 this fall. That was no fluke. The Blue Devils also finished with 8.0 second-order wins.

Duke was very close to an even more magical season. All four losses were by one possession, and three of them were by three points or less.

UCF finished 9-4, but with an identical 8.0 second-order wins (-1.0) to Duke’s in one less game.

And in this game, Duke loses nothing of substance from its regular-season roster, while UCF lost three impact starters, and multiple depths and special teams pieces. The Knights also have a big question mark at quarterback.

UCF went as QB1 Plumlee did this fall. So it was no surprise that the Knights sputtered in November as Plumee battled one injury after another (concussion, shoulder, hamstring). Plumlee’s hamstring has been an issue since early November, and it’s the reason his rushing fell off a shelf, with his overall utility following suit.

Because Plumlee was only able to start and complete one of the team’s final six games, and because recent media reports still suggest he isn’t fully healthy, it would be foolhardy to assume Plumlee will play the entire bowl at 100%. While that’s possible, the odds are much greater that he plays a partial game at suboptimal health.

Any snaps Plumlee doesn’t take will go to QB3 Castellanos, who is not ready for field action yet.

On the field, Duke has a balanced offense, while UCF skews extremely run-heavy with Plumlee in the lineup. Duke ranked No. 45 in offensive success rate and No. 40 in explosive play rate during the regular season – the Blue Devils can both run and throw.

UCF has a decent run defense overall (No. 22 success rate), but it gets lit up for explosive runs as badly as any run defense in the nation (No. 129). Meanwhile, UCF’s pass defense is below-average across the board. Duke shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball, and it can pick and choose where to attack depending on where it is finding openings.

UCF’s offense doesn’t have the same recourse – it must move the ball on the ground with Plumlee under center to have offensive success in this game. The Knights’ passing attack only becomes interesting when opponents become preoccupied with stopping the run and devote more resources to that pursuit – and it may not even project for that with WR1 O’Keefe no longer on the roster.

But while Duke only ranks No. 71 in rushing success rate on defense, the Blue Devils rank No. 4 in run defense explosiveness. So even if UCF’s offense were at full strength, the Knights wouldn’t be getting the long runs they were accustomed to during the first two months of the regular season.

While UCF faded down the stretch – upset loss to Navy, narrow win over lowly USF with a sub-50% postgame win expectancy, a blowout loss to Tulane in the AAC title game – Duke surged, winning four-of-five. And while UCF HC Gus Malzahn has experience over Elko, Malzahn is a mediocre 3-5 SU in his career in bowls.

The pick: Duke -3
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Liberty Bowl | Memphis, TN
Wednesday, December 28 | 4:30 PM
Arkansas (-3) vs. Kansas | Total: 68.5
ATL: Kansas -2.1 | ATT: 73.5

Arkansas

• QB Malik Hornsby (Transfer portal)
• QB Kade Renfro (Injury)
• RB ​​James Jointer (Transfer portal)
• WR Jadon Haselwood (Opt-out)
• WR Ketron Jackson (Transfer portal)
• WR Warren Thompson (Transfer portal)
• TE Trey Knox (Transfer portal)
• C Ricky Stromberg (Opt-out)
• DT Isaiah Nichols (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Eric Thomas Jr. (Transfer portal)
• LB Drew Sanders (Opt-out)
• LB Bumper Pool (Opt-out)
• CB Keuan Parker (Transfer portal)
• S Myles Slusher (Transfer portal)
• S Jalen Catalon (Injury)
• S Khari Johnson (Transfer Portal)

QB KJ Jefferson announced he’s returning to school next season. That was awesome news for the Hogs for 2023, and also crucial for their viability in this game. The rest of the news for Arkansas is not as good.

WR Haselwood broke out with 59 catches, 702 yards, and seven TD this fall. WR Jackson was also a starter – he’s off to Baylor in the portal. WR Thompson was a highly-used rotational receiver who would have started in this game if he hadn’t also decided to transfer prior to it.

In conjunction with TE Knox’s defection – to South Carolina – QB Jefferson will be very light on receiving weapons in the bowl against Kansas.

OC Stromberg and LB Sanders were both first-team All-SEC performers and impact starters. Sanders finally made “The Leap” in 2022, posting 9.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, and 103 tackles.

DT Nichols and LB Pool were also starters. Pool might not be the splashiest of players, but he was an ultra-reliable in the Hogs’ front seven for years, posting 90-plus tackles in four-straight seasons.

S Slusher quit the team after not seeing eye-to-eye with the staff about an incident that occurred in the fall. Slusher has committed to Louisville. S Catalon, the other starting safety, underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in September. Nickel defender Johnson, who played in 10 games this season while starting three, transferred to Boston College.

This is a lot of vacated snaps for a team that was extremely inconsistent this fall as was.

Kansas

• RB Daniel Hishaw (Injury)
• WR Steven McBride (Transfer portal)
• WR Lawrence Arnold (Injury)
• TE Will Huggins (Injury)
• OG James Livingston (Injury)
• LB Eriq Gilyard (Transfer portal)
• LB Gavin Potter (Transfer portal)
• DB Jarrett Paul (Transfer portal)
• K Jacob Borcila (Injury)

RB Hishaw suffered a season-ending injury in October. WR Arnold hurt his leg in the finale against Kansas State – his status is unclear. K Borcila is questionable with an unknown injury.

LB Gilyard was a rotational linebacker who didn’t pan out as the team had hoped after transferring in from UCF – he’s now off to UConn. OG Livingston, TE Huggins, and LB Potter barely played this fall and likely won’t play in the bowl. WR McBride and DB Paul, also reserves, have transferred to Hawaii and Appy State, respectively.

Coaching News
Arkansas DC Barry Odom took the UNLV head coaching job. Not only did HC Sam Pittman fire strength and conditioning coach Jamil Walker after the Missouri loss, but Pittman promised more staff changes were coming. Former Arkansas strength and conditioning coach Jamil Walker was fired.

Handicap
If this game had been played in the regular season, with both teams at full strength, I’d have been on Arkansas.

But the Hogs were decimated by defections, while Kansas will more-or-less be at full strength. With opt-outs baked in, my system says the wrong team is favored.

Kansas also has an enormous motivation edge – that is not baked into my line. This is the Jayhawks’ first bowl game since 2008. Getting here was a huge priority for the program, as is winning this game.

Arkansas, meanwhile, dealt with some in-fighting in the locker room during the season, ultimately leading to a few of the defections you see above. The Hogs will use the offseason to regroup and get back on the same page.

Kansas’ No. 13 SP+ offense scored 35 or more points in half of its regular season games. The Jayhawks ranked No. 5 in isoPPP and marginal explosiveness. Arkansas’ defense ranked Nos. 113 and 110 in the same categories.

And that was at full strength – which Arkansas’ defense decidedly will not be. Kansas’ offense will have QB Jalon Daniels healthier than he’s been since early October. KU puts defenses into conflict and confuses back-end defenders. This could pose an issue for Arkansas’ makeshift LB and S positions.

Kansas ranked No. 5 in PFF’s receiving grading – the Jayhawks outside weapons are extremely underrated. This, too, will pose an issue to the Hogs’ green safeties.

The Hogs’ offense will have plenty of success on the ground against Kansas. But Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson could find himself missing his myriad receiving weapons who opted out, particularly in a game that profiles as a shootout.

We’re calling for the Jayhawks upset. KU HC Lance Leipold is 4-1 ATS career in bowl games, and we think he’ll improve on that mark with his live ‘dog Jayhawks.

The pick: Kansas +3
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Holiday Bowl | San Diego, CA
Wednesday, December 28 | 7:00 PM
Oregon (-14.5) vs. North Carolina | Total: 73.5
ATL: Oregon -15.2 | ATT: 82

Oregon

• QB Jay Butterfield (Transfer portal)
• RB Byron Cardwell (Transfer portal)
• RB Sean Dollars (Transfer portal)
• WR Seven McGee (Transfer portal)
• WR Dont’e Thornton (Transfer portal)
• TE Terrell Tilmon (Transfer portal)
• OT Bram Walden (Transfer portal)
• OT Dawson Jaramillo (Transfer portal)
• DE Bradyn Swinson (Transfer portal)
• LB Noah Sewell (Opt-out)
• LB Justin Flowe (Transfer portal)
• LB Jackson LaDuke (Transfer portal)
• LB Adrian Jackson (Transfer portal)
• CB Christian Gonzalez (Opt-out)

Oregon QB Bo Nix confirmed he will play in the bowl, and also that he’s returning next season, both crucial developments for the Ducks.

LB Flowe and WR Thornton were former ballyhooed recruits who played rotational roles. Thornton was relied upon more down the stretch – it’s possible his enormous catch radius could be missed against what will be a rancid UNC secondary. Flowe is off to Arizona, while Thornton’s fellow rotational WR McGee chose to transfer to FCS Jackson State.

RB Cardwell was hurt most of the season and Oregon managed to have one of the nation’s most dangerous rushing offenses anyway. RB Dollars functioned as RB3. TE Tilmon and OTs Jaramillo and Walden barely played.

LB Noah Sewell, a five-star recruit and three-year starter, declared for the NFL draft and opted out. Sewell posted 215 tackles, 20.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks over 33 career games.

CB Gonazalez was a standout starter and All-Conference performer. Gonzalez, who posted a sterling 81.2 PFF grade during the fall, was the team’s most valuable defender. He finished the 2022 regular season with four interceptions and seven pass breakups.

North Carolina

• QB Jacoby Criswell (Transfer portal)
• RB Devon Lawrence (Transfer portal)
• RB Caleb Hood (Injury)
• RB British Brooks (Injury)
• WR Josh Downs (Opt-out)
• DT Jahlil Taylor (Transfer portal)
• DT Keeshawn Silver (Transfer portal)
• DGE Chris Collins (Transfer portal)
• LB Raneiria Dillworth (Transfer portal)
• LB Sebastian Cheeks (Injury)
• LB Noah Taylor (Injury)
• CB Tony Grimes (Transfer portal)
• CB Storm Duck (Transfer portal)
• CB Dontae Balfour (Transfer portal)
• S Cam’Ron Kelly (Transfer portal)
• K Jonathan Kim (Transfer portal)

QB Drake Maye announced he would return to UNC next season – he’ll start. Maye was the ACC Player of the Year, ACC Offensive Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Unfortunately, his top target, WR Downs, declared for the NFL Draft and opted out. Downs, a first-team All-ACC selection and second-team All-American is one of the best receivers in America – he recorded 94 catches and 11 TD in 2022. His absence hurts. Though it could be argued it’s in some ways canceled out by Oregon’s loss of CB Gonzalez.

RB Brooks, a projected potential starter in the preseason, was knocked out before the campaign with a knee injury. RB Hood is questionable with an undisclosed injury. LB Cheeks, who barely played, is out for the year with a shoulder injury.

EDGE Collins finished No. 13 on the defense in snaps, but PFF panned his work – he has transferred to Minnesota. LB Taylor, indisputably one of the defense’s top-three defenders through the first eight games, saw his season end with a lower-body injury in late October.

UNC’s secondary was ravaged by defections – CB Grimes, CB Duck, and S Kelly were all starters. This is not good news for an awful-as-was Tar Heels defense. CB Ladaeson DeAndre Hollins, who entered the portal but pulled out to return, figures to see a ton of playing time in the bowl.

K Kim was the team’s kickoff specialist.

Coaching News
Both teams will be without their offensive play-callers. Oregon OC Kenny Dillingham took Arizona State’s HC job. The Ducks have tabbed offensive assistants Junior Adams and Drew Mehringer play-callers for this game.

UNC OC Phil Longo left to become Luke Fickell’s new OC at Wisconsin. UNC OL coach Jack Bicknell Jr. followed Longo to Wisconsin. HC Mack Brown named WR coach Lonnie Galloway passing-game coordinator and TE coach John Lilly running-game coordinator for the bowl game.

Handicap
Do you like points? You’re going to see plenty.

Both teams had top-15 SP+ offenses in the fall – and both star starting quarterbacks will play in this game.

The defenses – stinky as is – will be even worse for this bowl. UNC’s No. 106 defense got absolutely ravaged by defections, particularly in the secondary. You wouldn’t think the backups could be much worse, but they’ll figure to test that theory.

Oregon’s No. 65 defense, meanwhile, will be missing its lockdown CB Gonalzez. While UNC QB Drake Maye won’t have WR Josh Downs to work with, UNC is deep at receiver and Maye is as gifted a younger thrower as there is in the country.

I can’t make a referendum on the side handicap. My adjusted line is sitting right around the Vegas line – and too many factors could swing it one way or the other. For instance a late backdoor UNC cover.

Instead, we’re taking the easy way out and going with the over – my system has an absurd 82-point total on this game. We think the final score could be an inflation-rate version of the Oregon-UCLA game, a 45-30 Ducks win. We’ll call it 49-34 Oregon.

The pick: Over 73.5
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Texas Bowl | Houston, TX
Wednesday, December 28 | 8:00 PM
Ole Miss (-3.5) vs. Texas Tech | Total: 70
ATL: Miss -4.1 | ATT: 72

Ole Miss

• QB Donovan Smith (Transfer portal)
• QB Behren Morton (Injury)
• TE Mason Tharp (Injury)
• OG Michael Shanahan (Transfer portal)
• OT Ethan Carde (Transfer portal)
• DT Philip Blidi (Transfer portal)
• LB Tyree Wilson (Injury)
• LB Bryce Ramirez (Injury)
• S Reggie Pearson Jr. (Transfer portal)
• S Kobee Minor (Transfer portal)

LB Wilson had posted seven sacks and 15 TFL prior to suffering a season-ending injury on Nov. 12 against Kansas. That was a devastating loss – no other way to put it. Wilson, headed to the NFL next season, is a favorite of ESPN’s Jordan Reid. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound edge terror currently ranks No. 11 overall on Mel Kiper’s big board.

QB Tyler Shough is expected to start with youngster QB Behren Morton still on the mend from his ankle injury. Morton is considered questionable – if he’s active, it’ll be as the QB2. The Red Raiders will be without the services of QB3 Smith, who transferred to Houston in hopes of taking over for the departing Clayton Tune.

Texas Tech starting senior OL Weston Wright announced he’s heading to the NFL after the bowl game, but that he would play in it. TE Tharp, a starter, is questionable with an undisclosed injury. OG Shanahan and OT Carde were buried on the depth chart.

DT Blidi was a rotational lineman whose work can be replaced. LB Ramirez is out for the season after suffering a serious leg injury in his first career start back in September.

S Pearson was a starter who played heavy snaps, but PFF panned his work with a ghastly 53.4 grade. Nickel defender Minor likely would have been in line for heavier snaps in the bowl – especially after he played quasi-starter minutes the last two games – but he’s also looking for a new home.

Texas Tech

• QB Luke Altmyer (Transfer portal)
• RB Isaiah Woullard (Transfer portal)
• WR Dannis Jackson (Transfer portal)
• WR Bralon Brown (Transfer portal)
• TE Michael Trigg (Injury)
• OG Jalen Cunningham (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Demon Clowney (Transfer portal)
• EDGE Brandon Mack (Transfer portal)
• LB Jaron Willis (Transfer portal)
• CB Miles Battle (Transfer portal)
• S MJ Daniels (Transfer portal)
• K Caden Costa (Suspension)

TE Trigg was a difference-maker, but he was knocked out for the campaign in early October with a broken collarbone. K Costa has been serving a one-year suspension for use of banned substances. It’s possible he could be cleared for return in the bowl, but it’s unclear if that will happen.

QB Altmyer, WR Jackson, and DE Clowney were all reserves. CB Battle, however, played 322 snaps in all 12 regular season games, posting 33 tackles with five passes defended and an interception.

The rest of the players above wouldn’t have seen big roles in this game – it’s possible HC Lane Kiffin pushed most of them out the door to clear room for his already-famous portal machinations.

Coaching News
Mississippi OL coach Jake Thornton left to join Hugh Freeze’s Auburn staff.

Handicap
Don’t blink. Both teams rank top-5 in adjusted tempo. And this bowl is being played at one of the postseason’s fastest indoor tracks in NRG Stadium.

Ole Miss is a run-happy team with a powerful one-two rushing punch. The Rebels rank No. 3 with 261.6 YPG rushing.

Texas Tech’s run defense has a troubling tendency to get nicked for explosive ground gains. And, if we’re being honest, this is a bugaboo that stretches to the entire Red Raider defense.

The Rebels will benefit from several quick scoring drives. Mississippi ranks No. 7 in explosive play rate offensively, while Texas Tech ranks No. 101 in the same category defensively.

Meanwhile, while Texas Tech’s pass-happy offense – directed by first-year OC Zach Kittley, who tutored QB Bailey Zappe at WKU last year – was up-and-down from an efficiency standpoint this year as it cycle through three different quarterbacks while learning a new system, it finished the regular season No. 12 with 309.8 YPG passing.

With veteran QB Tyler Shough stabilized at the end of the season, the aerial attack started clicking again. The Red Raiders won three straight to close the year, covering all three.

Mississippi won’t have much success slowing down Shough and Tech’s up-tempo aerial assault. The Red Raiders have no shot of stopping Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins on the fast track.

The margins on the side are too close for us to call. But this matchup screams over, and, lucky for us, it’s a reasonable price and no key offensive pieces on either side opted out.

The pick: Over 70

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