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College Football Futures: Playoff Odds After First CFP Rankings Released (2024)

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The conversations surrounding the first 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) format are about to take a dramatic turn now that the CFP Committee has released its first set of rankings. It was not surprising to see Oregon named the No. 1 team, followed by Ohio State, Georgia and Miami.

Their odds are, of course, very short now (Miami's are the longest at -1200) and not worth betting on. However, with a month left in the regular season, a lot could happen that could bump some of the initial top 12 out, opening the door for someone to move up.

Those are the teams worth betting on right now - the ones deemed not worthy at the moment but who could be later on. Let's take a look at the CFP odds for some of those teams.

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College Football Playoff Odds & Picks

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

With the release of the first CFP Rankings, the odds for teams to make the CFP this year have changed. They are now more of a reflection of the outlook for teams based on the rankings and their schedules.

Teams like Ohio State (-3500), Oregon (-4000), Georgia (-2000) and Miami (-1200) provide no value.

Do you want to risk $4,000 on Oregon just to win $100? The rest of their schedule is light (they should win all three). They'll probably still make the CFP if they lose the Big Ten title game. But upsets happen. If they lose two of their last three and don't even make the Big Ten title game, are they still a good bet?

Maybe. But probably not. Rather than waste time talking about which favorites you should bet on, we are going to go over three teams you should fade and two value teams.

CFP Odds: Three Teams to Fade

While Indiana has looked fantastic, their schedule is about to get real, with Michigan this weekend and Ohio State still to come. Of course, if they beat Ohio State, they are in (even if they lose to Michigan). But when it takes a $250 bet to win $100, the risk just isn't worth it.

The argument for Penn State to make it is already as good as it is going to get. The rest of their schedule is soft and they will probably not play in the Big Ten title game. So, they've already put their best foot forward. As other teams perform better over the next month, Penn State will get forgotten.

The loss to Northern Illinois appears to be largely forgotten. With wins over three ranked teams, Notre Dame has a good resume. But they have yet to play their toughest opponent - Army. While the Fighting Irish will likely be favored, don't count the Black Knights out.

With no conference title game to counteract it, a loss to Army will knock Notre Dame out of the top 12.

CFP Odds: Two Value Picks

Whether or not these teams are worth betting on is up to you. But we like their chances of making the CFP if they win out and a few things go their way.

After that dreadful outing against South Carolina last week, I am much less enthusiastic about Texas A&M making the playoffs. However, they should be 9-2 when they host the Longhorns to end the regular season. A loss will knock them out, of course, and they will be underdogs.

I can't help but think they could win, though. For two reasons: 1.) Players will want to win this rivalry game more than any other game in their lives; 2.) A win over Texas could still slide them in with a loss to whoever is in the SEC title game. If they bring their 'A' game, it is possible, giving their +350 odds some value.

Army’s chances hinge almost entirely on beating Notre Dame. They could run the table otherwise and win the AAC, but they need a signature win over a ranked team. Without one, Army gets left out. Before you scoff at the thought of betting on them, watch them play. They can beat Notre Dame. Will they? I don't know, but they can.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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