College Football Futures: Playoff Odds to Fade & Bet (2024)
As could be expected, the NCAA College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings got a massive shake-up after a couple of upsets last weekend. Who saw Ole Miss taking down Georgia or Miami losing to Georgia Tech? Both were in the top four and a virtual lock to make the CFP. Miami is still in decent shape at No. 9, but Georgia is much less secure at No. 12.
However, according to the odds, Georgia still has an 83.33% (-500) chance of making it. Despite being ranked higher, Miami has just a 56.52% chance (-130). Other teams are better bets and at least one team should be faded by bettors.
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College Football Futures: Playoff Odds
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
CFP Odds: Three to Fade
Miami (-130)
As long as they don't fall any further than No. 9, Miami has a seat in the CFP, but there is a good chance they will. With just Syracuse and Wake Forest left, their resume can't look better than it does right now. It can, however, look worse if they get upset again. They need to make the ACC title game and, ideally, win it to secure a spot. But, at the moment, SMU is the more likely choice.
If they don't win, they may not fall out of the top 12, but SMU's win over them would probably push them out and put the Mustangs in.
Georgia (-500)
The Bulldogs are still one of the better teams in the country, but with two losses, they have no room for error and have to hope someone else slips up. As the No. 12 team, they'd be the first team out to make room for the highest-ranked Group of Five team (Boise State).
Along with Boise State, wins by Texas A&M (over Texas), SMU (over Miami/Clemson in the ACC title game) and Colorado (over BYU in the Big 12 title game) will push the defending champs out of the playoffs. A loss to Tennessee this weekend will bring their dreams of a three-peat to an end.
Penn State (-850)
According to the odds, the Nittany Lions have an 89.47% chance of making the CFP; heck, they are currently the No. 4 team in the nation. But I can't help but wonder why. Who have they beaten? Their only win over a ranked opponent is against then-No. 19 Illinois. They lost their only other game against a ranked team (Ohio State).
There is nothing impressive about wins over Bowling Green, Kent State, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, etc. Beating Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch doesn't do anything for them, either. If they were to make the Big Ten title game and beat Oregon/Indiana, then OK, they deserve a spot.
But they aren't going to make the title game.
CFP Odds: Three to Bet
Army (+700)
The Black Knights are getting no love from the CFP Selection Committee so far despite being one of the few undefeated teams still standing. A win over a good Tulane team this weekend will help, but the committee is probably waiting for the Notre Dame game to give Army a seat at the table.
They'll still need to beat Navy and win the AAC title game. But if they are going to have any shot, they must beat Notre Dame. If they can learn from some of the many mistakes Navy made, they might pull the upset off.
Of course, there is no room for error here. But there is a path to the CFP for Army.
SMU (+140)
Many fans may need to be made aware that SMU is no longer a Group of Five team but a member of the ACC. Winning the conference will get them a seat at the table. If they give Clemson/Miami a good fight in the title game but lose, they may still sneak in. They'll need to beat Boston College, Virginia and California to end the regular season. But they should be favored in all three.
Clemson (+350)
If you don't want to bet on SMU to make it, think about betting on Dabo Swinney's team. A one-time regular in the postseason, Clemson has been one of those good but not great teams the last few years. While they had a rocky start to the season, the offense and defense have both come a long way since their 34-3 loss to Georgia.
The loss to Louisville doesn't do them any favors. But if they can get into the ACC title game over Miami and win it, Clemson will be back in the CFP.