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College Football: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UCLA Bruins Week Zero Betting Guide (2021)

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As August gets underway, college football training camps kick into high gear across the country as every team starts fresh with conference title ambitions. Before the majority of the games get underway on September 4th, there’s a handful of games the week before for bettors to get down.

In what has been termed “Week Zero,” let’s take a closer at where the value remains.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at UCLA Bruins (-17.5, O/U 69.5)

Are we doing still doing this Chip Kelly thing?

Entering his fourth season as the man in charge, Kelly is just 10-21 SU and 14-17 ATS, as nearly two-thirds of his losses have come by double-digits. And not exactly against elite talent either, and no bowl appearances in the “lowly” PAC-12.

Fourth-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been the starter for Kelly in all 3 seasons thus far. He has been the definition of average with a 40:20 TD to interception ratio and completing just 60% of his passes. The offense should get increased production in the 2nd year of transfer RB Brittain Brown, who posted strong numbers s the #2 RB in the Bruin’s shortened 2020 campaign, and new Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet. In total, the Bruins return 10 starters on offense and 95% of overall production.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bruins return 10 starters and 90% of their production, as their top four tacklers return. The problem is the production itself. In defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro’s three seasons at UCLA,  his defenses have ranked 89th, 105th, and 110th in the nation, and I expect a similar output this season.

Second-year head coach Todd Graham brings the Rainbow Warriors into the 2021 season off an outright victory over Houston as 7-point dogs in their bowl game to close out 2020 despite losing the turnover battle 0-3. Finishing the regular season 4-2 ATS, Hawaii won three games outright as dogs, as much as 12.5 vs. Boise and 7 vs. Nevada.

In addition to getting back their top passer and rusher in QB Chevan Cordeiro, Hawaii also gets back their leader in all-purpose yards, Calvin Turner, their top WR and return man. He also comes in as the #2 rusher behind Cordeiro, and the offense will go as far as this 1-2 punch of athleticism lets them.

The defense, however, is what has me most excited about this Hawaii team as they return all 11 starters and 99% of their production from last season. Unlike the Bruins, that’s cause for celebration as this unit took a step forward last season under first-year D Victor Santa Cruz with its best defensive production since 2014.

More cause for optimism from the unit. Not only do the Rainbow Warriors get back stud DB Eugene Ford who missed last season with a leg injury, but they also bring in three transfers who have the chance to see the field right away in CB Hugh Nelson (Georgia), DT Pita Tonga (Utah), DT Zacchaeus McKinney (Oklahoma), and safety Arnold Azunna (Iowa St.). The biggest boost Graham is looking for is to sure up a defensive line that ranked 106th against the run last season. As well as potentially even improve a secondary that finished 31st.

This line opened as low as -9 back in mid-July and was immediately pounced on, seeing as high as -18 before settling in where it is now and where we are pouncing. In Kelly’s three years at UCLA, he has been a favorite nine times and covered once, including losing six outright. In fact, looking at median ppg on both sides of the ball, Kelly has had net negative points per game in all three seasons, including a -3 differential last season.

I think you add all of this with Graham’s (and his OC son Bo) familiarity with UCLA and Kelly’s tendencies, and I think you see a Hawaii team that competes in this one late into the 3rd. While the raw talent and speed might win outright, I like Hawaii to hang in this one and cover this number.

Pick: Hawaii +17.5

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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.

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