Top College Football Heisman Winner Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The Heisman Trophy is always a puzzle to pick in preseason. It seems like you are just throwing darts, and it’s hard to make a case for anyone outside the favorites. The truth is leaning into the narrative of why someone could win is as important as the player’s actual statistics.
If you look at the modern era of the last 20 years, we have had three running backs (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, and Derrick Henry), one wide receiver (Devonta Smith), and 16 quarterbacks raise the trophy. Those running backs were on championship contenders, arguably the best player on their team, and at those exact times put up outlier-type statistical seasons. Devonta Smith had an incredible season when he won and had fortuitous luck on his side. He was widely seen as better than his QB Mac Jones, and WR Jaylen Waddle went down early, which led to an NCAA-leading 145 targets (24 more than the next closest WR).
Those are the outliers in the last 20 years. Looking into 2020, I don’t see any running back or wide receiver whose case for winning the Heisman makes sense. Even though Texas RB Bijan Robinson and Ohio State WR Jaxon-Smith Njigba are both in the top six in odds, the path for them to win isn’t viable. JSN would have to outperform his teammate QB CJ Stroud, who is the odds-on favorite, and if Texas has a transcendent season, it will be because of QB Quinn Ewers and RB Bijan Robinson would have to put up Barry Sanders-like numbers to win. Let’s dive into the parameters to win a Heisman.
Criteria to win modern-day Heisman:
- Be a quarterback
- Play for a playoff contender
- Have the opportunity to have “Heisman momentsâ€
- Produce transcendent numbers
- Be mobile to some extent (cannot be a statue)
- Not be the preseason favorite
These aren’t hard-fast rules, but the majority of winners check almost all of these boxes. For instance, the only favorite to win the Heisman was Marcus Mariota. The reason most favorites lose is simply that the expectations are already sky high, and having just a good season isn’t enough. When you look at past winners who weren’t on playoff teams, they had generational numbers and moments that solidified their Heisman candidacy. Lamar Jackson, Johnny Manziel, and Robert Griffin III had three of the most memorable seasons and therefore fit the narrative. Lastly, repeating as a Heisman isn’t really on the table because we have seen several players who actually had better statistics the year after they won and weren’t even considered (Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, and Lamar Jackson). Let’s dive into some candidates.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
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USC QB Caleb Williams +700
Caleb Williams travels with HC Lincoln Riley to hopefully revive USC from the pits of mediocrity. USC will only face two defenses inside the top 45 in SP+ defense (Utah and Notre Dame). Williams posted solid numbers as a true freshman (1912 passing yards, 9.1 yds/att, 21 TDs, 4 INTs, 435 rushing yards, and 6 TDs.) If Williams can lead USC to their first playoff berth and back into national relevance, he will be a finalist and more than likely hoist the Heisman Trophy in December.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers +3500
Quinn Ewers is one of the highest-graded prospects ever at 247sports. He transferred from Ohio State to take on the reins at Texas. Every year Texas fans say they are back, and this might actually be that year. Ewers will face a treacherous Alabama defense in the second week of the season. Outside of that, it will be a borderline cakewalk of defenses in the Big 12. Oklahoma will more than likely improve with the hiring of Brett Venables, but this would be where they are most vulnerable. If Ewers has a good showing against Alabama and leads Texas to a Big 12 championship and possibly a playoff berth, he will have incredible value at +3500.
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham +6000
Malik Cunningham has already shown he can put up gaudy numbers. In 2021 he posted 2941 passing yards, 8.7 yds/att, 19 TDs, 6 INTs, 1034 rushing yards, and 20 rushing TDs. These type of numbers paired with any contending team is a recipe for a Heisman. Lousiville will be elite on offense this year with an offensive returning production ranking of 11th paired with a 2021 SP+ offense ranking of 24th. If they make a run at the ACC championship, Cunningham will have the opportunity to show off against Clemson and Kentucky late in the season. No one is saying Malik Cunningham is Lamar Jackson, but his 2021 stats were infinitely better than Lamar Jackson’s stats before he won his first Heisman. So the possibility is definitely there.
Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner +7000
QB Tyler Buchner is as raw as they get. He comes into 2022 with more rushing attempts than passing attempts. He will get his first shot at making his name known against Ohio State in Week 1. If he performs well and makes it a competitive game, he will immediately jump into the spotlight. Buchner brings to Notre Dame the dual-threat element they have been severely missing in recent years. He will have All-American TE Michael Mayer to throw to as a security blanket. Buchner will be the focal point of this inexperienced offense, and if Notre Dame runs the table after a tough loss to Ohio State, they will have the potential for another playoff berth. The only way they run the table will be because of superb QB play, and at +7000, Buchner has immense value.
Thanks for reading!!! Tune in next time for more conference breakdowns.
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