College Football National Championship Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks: Washington vs. Michigan

by Austin MacMillan |
Jan 08, 2024

The 2023 College Football season culminates in spectacular fashion, with the only two remaining undefeated teams facing off in Houston on Monday night. The Wolverines have dominated their opponents for the majority of the season, before needing a late-game comeback to force OT and topple Alabama in their semifinal game. The Huskies were almost the complete opposite, dominating Texas in their semifinal for a majority of the game while skating by some of their lesser opponents during the regular season. This game will be an interesting clash of styles, with Michigan relying more on their ground-and-pound offensive attack while Washington will sling it around more with Michael Penix Jr. and their trio of NFL-caliber wide receivers. Below are my favorite TD-scoring props for this heavyweight championship battle.

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National Championship Anytime Touchdown Scorer Best Bets

(All bets are one unit.)

RB Blake Corum (MICH) 2+ TDs (+135 at DraftKings)

Michigan star RB Blake Corum may have lost some of his explosiveness from prior seasons due to surgery to repair a knee injury from last season, but that sure hasn't stopped the Wolverines from feeding him the ball. Corum carried the ball 237 times on the season (more than double that of their 2^nd string RB Donovan Edwards) for 1,111 yards and an insane 25 TDs. In their semifinal matchup, Corrum carried the ball 19 times compared to four from Edwards, tallying 83 yards on the ground for 1 TD and adding another score with a TD reception against an Alabama defense that is unquestionably more stout than this Washington defense (though improved) that they'll be up against in the championship game. I expect for that workload to remain consistent against the Huskies, and I anticipate that he will get a lion's share of the offensive opportunities around the red zone. I love for Corum to score twice in this game, just as he did in Michiganâ€™s semifinal matchup.

WR Jalen McMillan (WASH) Anytime TD Scorer (+175 at BetMGM)

I gave out this same prop in Washingtonâ€™s semifinal matchup against Texas, where McMillan cashed at a price of +145. Sure, Michigan's secondary and edge rushers trump that of the Longhorns, but I was still pretty surprised to see this price go up after he just found paydirt in the playoffs. As I pointed out last week, his season-long stats of 34 catches for 468 yards and 3 TDs were significantly dampened by injury, but that has not stopped Penix from relying on him in the games that have mattered the most. In the PAC-12 Championship game and their CFP Semifinal game, McMillan caught a combined 14 balls for 189 yards and 1 TD. It's often a roulette spin as to which WR finds the end zone, but we saw both McMillan and Polk score in their previous game. I'll run it back with McMillan to catch a TD in the championship, especially at a better price than we got against Texas.

QB J.J. McCarthy (MICH) Anytime TD Scorer (+280 at DraftKings)

This play is in line with some of the handicapping on the Corum 2+ TDs play, as I really think Michigan is going to rely heavily on the run game and limit potential turnover opportunities around the goal line. It also serves as a semi-hedge in case McCarthy snipes one of Corum's TDs, although I find it entirely possible that Corum can still score twice even if McCarthy gets one. College QB rush statistics are obviously impacted by sacks, but McCarthy had the 3^rd most carries for the Wolverines this season for 3 TDs, which was the exact same amount as 2^nd string RB Donovan Edwards. I could definitely see a zone-read concept down around the goal line, with the DEs of Washington impacting whether McCarthy gives the ball off to Corum or keeps it to try to score himself. At nearly 3/1 odds, I think this is a great price for McCarthy, who has no reservations about running the ball, to punch one in for Michigan.

WR Germie Bernard (WASH) Anytime TD Scorer (+550 at Caesars)

Washington's lead back Dillon Johnson was banged up at the end of their game against Texas, and his status for this championship game is currently up in the air. Though Bernard is listed as a WR on Washington's depth chart, he's had over a dozen carries out of the backfield for the Huskies. Even if Johnson does go, we've seen the Huskies deploy a goal-line package that features both Bernard and Johnson in the backfield in a wildcat look. They trust him in big games as well, as he found paydirt against Oregon in the PAC-12 championship game and got a carry inside the 6-yard line against Texas in the Semifinal game. He also sometimes returns punts for the Huskies (though he did muff one against Texas), so there's always the possibility that he busts a return against a Michigan Special Teams unit that was extremely shaky against Alabama. I think these odds are way too long for a guy who consistently sees opportunities around the goal line, especially with Johnson's health in question.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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