College Football Odds & Picks: Heisman Trophy Winner Predictions (2024)

Picking a Heisman Trophy candidate to bet on seems easy if you don’t think about it too hard. Most of the time, the winner is the quarterback for one of the better power conference teams in the country. Bet on one of those guys and you’ll have a good chance to win some money.

Right? Eh... not necessarily.

Five of the last eight winners played in the College Football Playoff; three played in the National Championship game. Two were literal unknowns that started the season with +10,000 odds and one played for a Group of Five school that lost three games with him under center.

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2024 Heisman Trophy Odds Betting Trends

There are unofficial rules/trends bettors should keep in mind when deciding who to put money on before the season gets rolling:

• Don’t bet on the preseason favorite. Since 2009, only one preseason favorite won the Heisman Trophy (Marcus Mariota, 2014).
• Only three players (since 2009) with preseason odds shorter than +1000 went on to win (Caleb Williams +600, Bryce Young +800, Mariota +425).
• A running back has not won since Derrick Henry in 2015 (+2500 preseason odds).
• Four of the five winners from 2009-2013 were not listed with odds before the start of the season (Mark Ingram in 2009, Cam Newton in 2010, Johnny Manziel in 2012, Jameis Winston in 2013).
• Six winners since 2011 had preseason odds of +2500 or longer.
• One loss is typically the max unless one came early in the season against a highly-ranked team.

What should bettors take from all of this? For one, Dillon Gabriel will likely not win the Heisman. At this point, do not count anyone out. But if you are going to put money down on someone now, roll the dice on someone with relatively long odds.

Seven of the last 10 winners began the season with +1000 odds or longer.

2024 Heisman Trophy Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Too many players are listed with odds to name even a portion of them here. We suggest you finish reading this post and then check out the Heisman Trophy odds to see every choice available.

We are going to focus on our favorite picks, a couple of dark horses and the ever-popular longshots.

Favorites

• Quinn Ewers (QB – Texas) - +1000

With all the injuries at running back, the onus will be on Quinn Ewers even more to produce and win games. If he can be as masterful with an SEC schedule as he was against Alabama last season, he’ll be in the conversation at the end of the regular season.

• Jalen Milroe (QB – Alabama) - +1400

He wasn’t a stat beast last season, but any QB who plays for Alabama will probably deserve to be in the Heisman conversation. At least, that was the case during Nick Saban’s tenure - but Jalen Milroe will need to take his game to another level.

• Jaxson Dart (QB – Ole Miss) -  +1400

Jaxson Dart has improved each season he’s played under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. If he continues to improve this season and gets a marque win or two under his belt vs. LSU, Oklahoma or Georgia, he’ll certainly have a shot.

Dark Horses

These are the guys with the potential to have Heisman-caliber seasons but will likely need one or two things to go their way.

• Riley Leonard (QB – Notre Dame) - +2200

Riley Leonard’s stat sheet will not blow your mind and scream Heisman, but he is a proven leader and playmaker who doesn’t make many mistakes. Now that he’s moving from Duke to Notre Dame, Leonard will have the schedule and roster he’ll need for an award-worthy season - if he stays healthy.

• Shedeur Sanders (QB – Colorado) - +3500

We’ve seen plenty of evidence Shedeur Sanders can generate the kind of stats voters love but can he win games?

Longshots

With these guys, the potential is there, but they’ll need the stars to align and for several lucky bounces/calls to go their way to have a shot.

• Noah Fifita (QB – Arizona) - +4000: In nine starts last season, Noah Fifita threw for 2,800 yards and 25 touchdowns with six interceptions. He’ll have a shot if he can take a big step forward in Arizona’s first year in the Big 12.
• Cam Rising (QB – Utah) - +4000: Cam Rising showed he has the potential to have an award-worthy season when he led Utah to a 10-3 record and Pac-12 championship in 2022.
• Travis Hunter (WR/DB – Colorado) - +5000: Anyone who goes both ways and ends up playing for most of the game at a high level should win the Heisman... if Travis Hunter can stay healthy for the whole season.
•  Ollie Gordon III (RB – Oklahoma State) - +7500: Ollie Gordon is a beast; easily the best running back in college football. However, to win the Heisman over all the quarterbacks, he’ll likely need to improve off the 1,700+ yards and 21 touchdown season he had last year.