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College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 0: Wyoming vs. Illinois (8/27)

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In this article, I project the spread for every game of Week 0 using my ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). Using the ATL system, I provide my top picks of the week. Here’s my pick for Wyoming vs. Illinois.

Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings for Every Team >>

College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 0: Wyoming vs. Illinois

Wyoming (+11) at Illinois
ATL: Ill -5.0

As I wrote in our Big 10 preview, Illinois HC Bret Bielema has already succeeded in turning the Illini into a "Kirkland-brand Wisconsin." That entails a huge OL (average starter weighs 318 pounds), a clock-control offense with a physical downhill rushing attack, playing the field position game, not making mistakes on defense, and fielding a strong special teams unit.

And here's the super important point, as it comes to this handicap: A central tenet of this strategy involves shortening games - all games, regardless of opponent, as underdogs or as favorites - and, invariably, trying to pull out close games at the end. Teams like Wisconsin and Iowa aren't trying to blow anyone out - when it happens, it's either due to a ludicrous talent discrepancy, or circumstances.

Of Illinois' 12 games last season, nine were decided by 10 points or less (despite seven having double-digit spreads). The Illini beat only one team by more than 10: A 3-9 Northwestern squad in the regular-season finale that had already turned its attention to winter break.

On the other side, Wyoming HC Craig Bohl rarely has the talent advantage, and he never puts his team in bad spots. This line is Wyoming +11. In the last three seasons, Wyoming has lost by more than 11 points only three times.

With what I'm saying, you'd probably assume both men are better ATS as underdogs, right? Since 2015, Bohl is 35-25 ATS (58.3%) as an underdog. Last year, Illinois went 6-3 ATS as an underdog (4-1 ATS as away 'dog), and 1-2 ATS as a favorite.

Illinois is better than Wyoming, no doubt. I expect the Illini to win this game. But in a vacuum, the Illini are getting too much respect - my numbers say this line should be Illinois -5. And contextually, there are even more reasons to like the idea of getting double-digit points on whatever side the market wants to give you them on.

Bet: Wyoming (+11)

And here are all of my total win projections, odds, and picks.


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