College Football Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Week 2 Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)

Week 1 of the 2022 college football season provided no shortage of excitement. OK, maybe Monday night’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game was a dud. But otherwise, the opening weekend of the season was as good as you could’ve imagined.

It was also a good opening week for this column, as we went 2-1-1. TCU and the Minnesota-New Mexico State under hit with ease. But Georgia State deserved a better result, and let’s not even talk about Illinois’ meltdown at Indiana. Hopefully, you got +3.

Week 2 is headlined by the showdown between Alabama and Texas. But you know that game won’t be covered here. Instead, let’s dig into some Week 2 plays that won’t be quite as high-profile.

2022 season record: 2-1-1

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>

Louisville Cardinals at Central Florida Knights (-6.5), Total 61.5

Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 ET

Not many teams had a worse opening week than Louisville, who was drubbed 31-7 on the road by Syracuse. Now, the Cards are catching close to a touchdown on the road against UCF, who cruised past South Carolina State, 56-10.

Now, those are two polar opposite results. But they have to be taken with context. Louisville managed to move the ball and averaged 6.2 yards per play against Syracuse. The problem was they couldn’t convert on those opportunities. Specifically, Louisville turned the ball over on downs on Syracuse’s 2-yard line, and quarterback Malik Cunningham threw a pick on Syracuse’s 35.

There’s no doubt that Cunningham had an awful day with two picks and a lost fumble. But he’s one of the most talented QBs in the ACC and should bounce back against the Knights. If nothing else, Louisville should be able to run the ball better against a UCF defense that struggled to defend the run last year and lost all three starters along the defensive line.

Speaking of the Knights, it’s hard to take much away from their opening win. They out-gained South Carolina State 600-91 but committed 10 penalties against a lousy opponent.

This game feels like a classic overreaction spot that leads to a buying opportunity. I’ll give Cunningham and the Cards a chance to bounce back.

The pick: Louisville +6.5

North Carolina Tar Heels (-7) at Georgia State Panthers, Total 68.5

Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET

North Carolina’s odd early-season schedule continues with a trip to another Sun Belt institution. This time, they’ll take on a Georgia State team that deserved better than a 21-point loss to South Carolina.

The Bulldogs actually out-gained the SEC foe last weekend by a 311-306 margin despite completing just 7-of-29 passes. The Panthers also forced two Spencer Rattler interceptions.

The turning point was two inexplicable blocked punts that were both returned for touchdowns by the Gamecocks in the second half. Georgia State also drove down the field on its opening drive only to get stuffed on 4th and 1 from South Carolina’s 8-yard line.

Now, the Panthers will host a Tar Heels team that might be exhausted from one of the wildest games in college football history last weekend. North Carolina climbed out of an early 21-7 hole to go up 41-21 entering the fourth quarter. Then, all hell broke loose, as UNC allowed Appalachian State to tie the game before ultimately falling in the end.

Georgia State should find more success offensively against a Tar Heels defense that gave up 649 yards, including 288 on the ground. If QB Darren Grainger can have more success tossing the rock, then the Panthers should be able to stick within a score. Don’t bet this below a touchdown.

The pick: Georgia State +7

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