Top College Football Playoff Champion Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
It's that time again, the best time of the year in sports. College football is back. The passion, the pageantry, the tailgates, the bands, the rivalries and the upsets all return - well, maybe not that last one so much.
Unfortunately, this is shaping up to be a chalky season for college football's grand prize. Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State are the heavy favorites to take home the title this year (-350 vs. the field). With that in mind, let's take a closer look at what I consider the two best National Championship bets on the board.
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Ohio State Buckeyes (+320)
Ohio State is my absolute favorite pick to win the College Football Playoff this year. They have an elite signal caller in C.J. Stroud. Stroud led the country in QBR this past season (89.8), was third in overall completion percentage (71.9%) and excelled at evading pressure (ninth lowest on PFF's pressure-to-sack rate). Pairing him with dynamic back TreVeyon Henderson and Rose Bowl MVP Jaxon Smith-Njigba, among others, has Stroud poised for a Heisman hopeful season.
While the defense was a weaker point for the team last year, the addition of DC Jim Knowles (formerly at Oklahoma State) should help the team tremendously. One area where I anticipate major improvement is the team's third-down conversion percentage. Ohio State ranked 92nd last year, allowing opponents to convert 42% of their third downs. Meanwhile, under Knowles, Oklahoma State ranked second at 28% in 2021. Additionally, Ohio State returns 82% of their defensive production, 13th in the country. Look for the defense to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to what should be the best offensive unit in the nation.
Georgia Bulldogs (+425)
Much like Georgia's last season, our preview will first begin with the defense. While UGA lost much of its defensive unit, including five players to the first round of the NFL Draft and defensive coordinator Dan Lanning (now the HC at Oregon), this is more a case of reloading rather than rebuilding. Despite returning only 44% of its defensive production from last year (122nd in the nation), there is still elite talent on this defense, thanks to Kirby Smart's recruiting prowess. UGA has maintained an average recruiting class ranking of 2.2 over the last five years, leaving plenty of talent on the defense, notably lineman Jalen Carter and lockdown corner Kelee Ringo.
The greatest sign of hope for back-to-back titles for the Dawgs lies in offensive improvement. Running back should continue to be a strength with the tandem of Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton (5.8 and 5.0 career yd/carry averages, respectively). In the passing game, Stetson Bennett silenced his critics in a season where he finished with the third-highest QBR and will continue to improve with another season of experience under his belt.
The tight ends will be the key cog in this offense. Sophomore Brock Bowers earned All-SEC honors after a 56-reception, 13-TD freshman season. Darnell Washington offers flexibility in both the passing and run-blocking game, and the oft-troubled Arik Gilbert should pose a matchup nightmare from a variety of places on the field.
On the receiver end, much is made about the departures of Jermain Burton and George Pickens. However, they were often sidelined and combined for only 31 catches last year. Continued improvements from sophomores Ladd McConkey (31 catches, 447 yards, six total TDs) and Adonai Mitchell (29 catches, 426 yards, four TDs) plus a healthy pass catcher room after an injury-riddled 2021-2022 season should more than makeup for that loss.
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