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College Football Playoff Picks: National Championship (Ohio State vs. Notre Dame)

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College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for the National Championship game of the College Football Playoff. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

It all comes down to this! The #1 and #2 scoring defenses facing off in the National Championship! Ohio State has been on a seemingly unstoppable roll in the Playoffs and Notre Dame might have the least imposing offense they have faced so far in this tournament. The popular names for the Buckeyes play on offense but the defense is what has brought Ohio State to the doorstep of their first National Title since 2014.

The Buckeyes held Tennessee (256 yards), Oregon (276) to season-low yardage totals and Texas to a season-low 14 points. Notre Dame played a strong offensive game against Penn State but Georgia gave them problems and Ohio State has the best defense they will have faced all season. Notre Dame will have to find a way to run the ball against the 3rd best run defense statistically (1st in PFF RDef grade) and if they get down and have to pass to try to catch up the Buckeyes have the #1 pass defense statistically as well.

Riley Leonard is going to have to play his best game of the year, Jeremiyah Love will have to have his long speed back and one of the Notre Dame pass catchers is going to have to show up and have a strong day. The Notre Dame defense has been their strength all season long and, while I think they can slow down Ohio State, I'm not sure if they are going to be able to keep the Buckeyes from a big play in this game. The Longhorns did a good job of making Ohio State earn the yards for the most part by not getting beat over the top but the big play still found its way in with the big screen to Henderson.

Irish Safety Xavier Watts will likely be moved all over the place to try to stop the multitude of weapons Ohio State has but keeping everything in front of them and making Ohio State have long drives and hoping for a mistake like Texas did and force them to punt the ball.

Notre Dame is 5th in Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage and will have to keep that trend rolling to stay in this game low-scoring and within striking distance late. QB Will Howard taking what the defense gives him and limiting turnover-worthy plays is the key to Ohio State winning this game. Howard just needs to get the ball in the hands of his big playmakers and let them work while Notre Dame needs to get after Howard and somehow keep the Buckeyes from the big play.

This game hinges on Notre Dame's ability to move the ball, if they can put together a couple of long TD drives they can stay in it. However, settling for field goals is going to keep the Buckeyes in it and they can score in the blink of an eye.

Picks

I'm going to stick with another Under with the #1 and #2 scoring defenses playing each other in this one. Notre Dame is a bit banged up on offense going into this one, Love was a bit gimpy and didn't show the same explosion, starting LT Knapp is out and WR Beaux Collins is playing but won't be 100%.

The Irish are also 103rd in pace of play while Ohio State is 110th meaning a lot of time will burn between plays in this game. I feel like Notre Dame will concentrate on keeping the Buckeyes from making big plays downfield so they will have to dink and dunk their way down the field with short plays and 3rd down conversions.

I'm leaning toward Ohio State minus the points because I think they could pull away in the 4th or get a cover like last week with the defensive TD at the end of the game to seal it. My final score prediction will be something in the Ohio State 24-10 or 20-10 range with both defenses showing up big.

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