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College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions: Semifinals

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College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.

College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions

Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Orange Bowl

These teams have very similar approaches to playing strong defense, running the ball, and passing when necessary. There are a few impactful injuries in the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame will be down their best blocking TE Cooper Flanigan and star RB Jeremiyah Love is probable with a knee injury but will likely be far less than 100%. Penn State's best player, LB Abdul Carter, is questionable with an arm injury. Carter would be a big loss for the Nittany Lions defense that is going to be tasked to stop the three-headed run game of the Irish with RBs Love, Jadarian Price, and QB Riley Leonard. Penn State is Top-10 statistically against the run and Top-25 in PFF Run Defense grade this season, they held Boise State to their lowest Rushing Yards total of the season by 62 yards last week. Notre Dame is not likely to be stopped as a Top-15 rushing offense but the goal for Penn State should be to hold the Irish to 3rd and longs to make Leonard pass the ball as he still hasn't passed for 250 yards yet this season and it's not really his strength. The pass catchers to watch for Notre Dame will be WR Beaux Collins who leads them in targets, receptions and Jordan Faison, who has 11 of his 27 receptions this season in the last two games of the CFP. TE Mitchell Evans has made some big plays for Notre Dame, but Love being slowed down could hamper the check-down game as he has 25 catches, and all other ND RBs have 21 combined. Penn State LB Kobe King is likely the key with Carter banged up, if he and S Jaylen Reed can contain the Notre Dame run game Penn State will be in the drivers seat. Scoring will be tough for the Nittany Lions as Notre Dame is 2nd in Scoring Defense and has only allowed USC and Louisville to put up more than 17 points on them all season. QB Drew Allar has been inaccurate but has made some big throws in the Playoff so far, but TE Tyler Warren will be the key for Notre Dame to slow down. Tyler Warren has more than torched Boise last week for two TDs and has been instrumental in this deep run for Penn State, but Notre Dame hasn't allowed any TE more than 36 receiving yards and 39 yards to TEs in a single game. Notre Dame is missing DE Rylie Mills but they were still able to hold Georgia to 62 yards rushing, 296 total yards, 2-12 on 3rd and 0-3 on 4th down. Slowing down the run game will be focus for Notre Dame as Penn State runs at a higher clip than they pass and have split carries between two Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton who have both gone over 1000 yards and have 24 combined TDs. Penn State also likes to check down and throw to the Warren more but Harrison Wallace will be an interesting watch, Georgia had opportunities to make some plays downfield but the pass catchers dropped a few big ones. The passing game outside of Warren hasn't been productive this season for Penn State but CB Leonard Moore has been outstanding in coverage allowing fewer than 50% of his targets to be caught. This game will likely be low-scoring, with a turnover or special teams breakdown making the biggest difference.

Picks

My favorite bet of the week is the Under in this game. Jeremiyah Love is the biggest explosive playmaker in this game and will be less than 100%; Notre Dame hasn't let a TE beat them yet, and both of these teams are better on defense than offense. Drew Allar has made some big throws but is currently 26/47 (55.3%, 53.7% is the lowest among qualified QBs this season) and both of these teams stop the run well. The QBs in this game are Top-10 in turnover-worthy play percentage, and the red zone defense is also both Top-5. There are too many stats that point toward the Under to ignore in this game so that will be my play. I'll take Penn State straight up in this game as well, a lucky bounce can win it for either team but I want the QB that can make throws down the field and Allaw is way ahead of Leonard there. Leonard has the 90th (of 94) ADOT this season and really leans on his legs. I see a low-scoring, field position, punt-tastic game in this one which will likely be close late.

Ohio State vs. Texas: Cotton Bowl

Ohio State has seemingly flipped a switch after the Michigan loss and have crushed Tennessee and then also beat the only undefeated team left going into the CFP, #1 seed Oregon, by 20 points. Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has 13 receptions, 290 yards and 4 TDs through the first two games of the tournament and Ohio State has 973 total yards in those games. The Buckeyes have been running through the competition but Texas hasn't been dominated by any offense this season. The Longhorns gave up 510 yards to Arizona State with 38 minutes of possession and the game was only tied at 24 going into OT. The Thorpe and Shaun Alexander award winners (CB Jahdae Barron and Edge Collin Simmons) are on this defense that is 4th in scoring and 3rd in total yards allowed. The Longhorns are still at a disadvantage against the playmakers of Ohio State and they will have to pressure Will Howard and force him into incompletions and mistakes to stay competitive. The Ohio State offensive line is the weakness (only because of injuries), and the Texas pass rush is dangerous, but dominating is not likely with all of the options, so the goal for Texas should be to make Ohio State earn every yard and try to stay strong in the red zone. The bigger mismatch is the Ohio State defense against the Texas offense. Texas has been just ok on offense recently and the Ohio State defense is 1st in Scoring, Total and Passing yards, PFF Defensive and Run Defense grade 2nd in Red Zone Scoring percentage and Team Defensive Performance and 3rd in EPA per play. Texas should get back one of the best run-blocking Tackles in the Country in RT Cameron Williams, but he likely isn't 100%, and moving the ball will be a tall task against the Buckeyes. Texas QB Quinn Ewers will need to keep the ball out of harm’s way, and the Longhorns will have to rely on chunk plays and try to force short fields on defense to have success in this game. Texas has enough talent on offense to make it happen but they last few weeks of offensive performance, kicking issues and the defense looking like they are beatable are all leading toward this line being heavy in the Buckeyes favor.

Picks

I'm a Longhorns fan as most know but looking at the way these two teams are playing I can't suggest taking Texas in this game. Ohio State has been up and down this season which makes them dangerous to trust completely but they really do seem to be peaking and playing their best football right now. The Texas defense can keep them in this game and will likely have more success than Oregon and Tennessee but the issues on offense for Texas make moving the ball against Ohio State a tough task. This game is way less straightforward than the Orange Bowl but if I am picking one thing to bet it would be the Under in this game. Texas didn't let the Sun Devils score until they were gassed in the 4th quarter and only two teams have put 30 points on them the whole season. I have props I like that are on the BP Youtube but for this game I'm on lean toward the Under but with the swings both teams have had in performance I don't like taking either side.

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