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College Football PrizePicks Bowl Game Predictions: Friday (12/29)

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This is one of my favorite articles because College Football’s prop lines are softer than the NFL’s.

During the regular season, we would look for matchups to correlate quarterbacks from the same contest and attack the game environment. Unfortunately, during Bowl season there are many player opt-outs and transfer portal submissions. This leaves us with inexperienced players and has us searching for consistency and certainty.

We will target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks.

Let's dive in.

College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games (Dec. 29)

Glossary

  • EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays
  • Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down
  • Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
  • Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
  • Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
  • Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
  • Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
  • Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%

Devin Leary (QB – Kentucky) Under 200.5 Passing Yards

  • 144th in Mickey Mouse Atts (47.8%)
  • 28th in Big Dog Atts (43.2%)
  • 36th in Medium Att %
  • 51st in Medium PFF Grade
  • 80th in Medium QB Rating
  • 49th in Deep Att %
  • 122nd in Deep PFF Grade
  • 135th in Deep QB Rating
  • Clemson 17th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Clemson 1st in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Clemson 3rd in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
  • Clemson 7th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts

First things first, Clemson will be without their two outside starting cornerbacks. This news gives me a slight pause, but Clemson’s defensive system is built to limit big passing plays. Devin Leary attempts Deep Passes at an above-average rate but is below-average in cashing in on them from a film perspective and in the box score. The flip side to this is Clemson is borderline elite in defending Mickey Mouse attempts. Leary would need to consistently beat this defense or connect on some chunk plays, and I honestly do not see either of those things materializing.

Brady Cook (QB – Missouri) Under 210.5 Passing Yards

  • 73rd in Mickey Mouse Atts (57.1%)
  • 83rd in Big Dog Atts (36.7%)
  • 98th in Short Att %
  • 124th in Short PFF Grade
  • 34th in Short QB Rating
  • 99th in Medium Att %
  • 42nd in Medium PFF Grade
  • 56th in Medium QB Rating
  • 62nd in Deep Att %
  • 21st in Deep PFF Grade
  • 16th in Deep QB Rating
  • Ohio State 13th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Ohio State 3rd in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Ohio State 17th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
  • Ohio State 1st in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts

This matchup is one of the rare Bowl games where there are not a litany of opt-outs. Everyone who can play is playing for Missouri, and Ohio State is only missing a handful of players from their elite defense. The great news for us is both outside starting cornerbacks will play, and possibly starting safety Josh Proctor. Brady Cook has a balanced passing depth distribution. Where he excels most is in Deep Pass attempts. This is that cliche matchup of an immovable object versus an unstoppable force. I will side with this Ohio State coverage defense that has allowed one game over 200 yards all year and has held opposing quarterbacks to 4.9 yards/attempt.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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