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College Football PrizePicks Bowl Game Predictions: Thursday (12/28)

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This is one of my favorite articles because College Football’s prop lines are softer than the NFL’s.

During the regular season, we would look for matchups to correlate quarterbacks from the same contest and attack the game environment. Unfortunately, during bowl season there are many player opt-outs and transfer portal submissions. This leaves us with inexperienced players and has us searching for consistency and certainty.

We will target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks.

Let's dive in.

College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games (Dec. 28)

Glossary

  • EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays
  • Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down
  • Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
  • Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
  • Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
  • Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
  • Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
  • Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%

Brennan Armstrong (QB – NC State) Passing Yards Under 222.5 

  • 60th in Mickey Mouse Atts (58.8%)
  • 89th in Big Dog Atts (36.2%)
  • 60th in Short Att %
  • 133rd in Short PFF Grade
  • 134th in Short QB Rating
  • 102nd in Medium Atts %
  • 44th in Medium PFF Grade
  • 44th in Medium QB Rating
  • Kansas State 36th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Kansas State 39th in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Kansas State 36th in EPA/Pass Att on Short Atts
  • Kansas State 39th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts

Brennan Armstrong has a balanced pass distribution but is not elite at any level. He has mightily struggled in the short area passes and is facing a Kansas State secondary that ranks 40th or better in EPA/Pass Att at every depth. If NC State wants to win this game they will have to incorporate more of Armstrong’s running ability and that is great news for us under betters. I see Armstrong struggling to find big plays against this disciplined defense and pairing that with a lack of consistency points to a below-average day passing the ball.

Noah Fifita (QB – Arizona) Passing Yards Under 302.5

  • 5th in Mickey Mouse Atts (65%)
  • 138th in Big Dog Atts (30%)
  • 12th in Behind LOS Atts %
  • 20th in Behind LOS PFF Grade
  • 9th in Behind LOS QB Rating
  • 71st in Short Atts %
  • 41st in Short PFF Grade
  • 25th in Short QB Rating
  • 133rd in Medium Atts %
  • 6th in Medium PFF Grade
  • 4th in Medium QB Rating
  • 117th in Deep Atts %
  • 115th in Deep PFF Grade
  • 72nd in Deep QB Rating
  • Oklahoma 2nd in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Oklahoma 72nd in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Oklahoma 7th in EPA/Pass Att on Behind LOS Atts
  • Oklahoma 2nd in EPA/Pass Att on Short Atts
  • Oklahoma 112th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
  • Oklahoma 24th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts

Noah Fifita is an extremely underrated quarterback and is the reason Arizona had an incredible season. With that said, this matchup against Oklahoma gives me pause. Oklahoma’s defense excels in the areas where Fifita wants to throw the ball. The only real weakness of this defense is in the middle of the field. Fifita only attempts passes in the medium range on 18.2% of his passes. This is a considerably high passing total, and I just do not see Fifita connecting on enough big plays to keep this hybrid-style defense on its heels. Unless Arizona changes its offensive style, they will be playing right into Oklahoma’s strengths.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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