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College Football PrizePicks Bowl Game Predictions: Tuesday (12/26)

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This is one of my favorite articles because college football props lines are softer than the NFL and Vegas is still trying to get these lines as sharp as possible.

During the regular season, we would look for games where we can correlate quarterbacks from the same game and attack the game environment. Unfortunately, during bowl season there are many player opt-outs and transfer portal submissions. This leaves us with inexperienced players and has us searching for consistency and certainty.

We are going to target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks. Let’s dive in.

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College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games 12/26/2023

Bowl Season Record: 3-0

Glossary

  • EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays
  • Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
  • Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
  • Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
  • Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
  • Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts. The average attempt % is 55.8%
  • Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts. The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%.

Cole Kramer (QB – Minnesota) Passing Yards under 158.5 

  • Bowling Green 14th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Bowling Green 18th in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Bowling Green 9th in EPA/Pass Att on Behind LOS Atts
  • Bowling Green 17th in EPA/Pass Att on Short Atts
  • Bowling Green 16th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
  • Bowling Green 49th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts

Cole Kramer has attempted two passes this year, therefore, we do not have an advanced statistical profile for him. Minnesota is a run-heavy team that uses an RPO-style passing attack. Athan Kaliakmanis ranked 30th in Medium Atts % and 48th in Short Atts %. Minnesota will likely implement a conservative game plan that reduces risk down the field. The only issue is Bowling Green is an elite coverage unit. Their only weakness is on deep attempts, but even then they are above average. Kramer would need 30+ Pass Attempts to go over his total and I just do not see that happening.

T.J. Finley (QB – Texas State) Passing Yards over 267.5

  • 15th in Mickey Mouse Atts (63.3%)
  • 118th in Big Dog Atts (32.8%)
  • 8th in Short Atts %
  • 73rd in Short PFF Grade
  • 61st in Short QB Rating
  • 150th in Medium Atts %
  • 38th in Medium PFF Grade
  • 17th in Medium QB Rating
  • 66th in Deep Atts %
  • 45th in Deep PFF Grade
  • 41st in Deep QB Rating
  • Rice 49th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
  • Rice 101st in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
  • Rice 52nd in EPA/Pass Att on Short Atts
  • Rice 107th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
  • Rice 80th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts

Finley has been solid at essentially all levels of passing depth. One thing that stands out is he is elite in the medium attempt range, he just does not attempt a high volume of passes at this depth. Hopefully, the coaching staff has watched enough tape to see that Rice is abysmal in the middle of the field. He should make enough big dog throws to exceed his passing yards total, as Rice has been susceptible at those ranges.

Jason Bean (QB – Kansas) Passing Yards over 224.5

  • 160th in Mickey Mouse Atts (41.5%)
  • 4th in Big Dog Atts (53.3%)
  • 3rd in Medium Atts %
  • 46th in Medium PFF Grade
  • 36th in Medium QB Rating
  • 15th in Deep Att %
  • 58th in Deep PFF Grade
  • 6th in Deep QB Rating
  • UNLV 97th in EPA/Pass Att in Mickey Mouse Atts
  • UNLV 102nd in EPA/Pass Att in Big Dog Atts
  • UNLV 59th in EPA/Pass Att in Medium Atts
  • UNLV 113th in EPA/Pass Att in Deep Atts

Jason Bean has the exact type of profile we are looking for when it comes to targeting an over for passing yards. Bean is going to look to attack this horrendous UNLV secondary at all levels. He should have little resistance, especially at the deep range. All it would take is a handful of Deep completions and he should soar over this total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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