Navigate

College Football PrizePicks Week 1 Player Predictions (2023)

by |

Welcome to a new article series where we will focus primarily on PrizePicks player predictions. Our main strategy is to look at QBs, as their volume is the most predictable and less dependent on the game script.

Being that it is Week 1 we will have to use tendency data from last season. We will lean on situational data to best predict passing rates and rushing rates. Let’s dive in!

Best Week 1 College Football PrizePicks Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: first down, second and six or less, third/fourth down and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)

Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)

PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)

EPA: Expected Points Added (Efficiency measure)

Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington) Over 310.5 Passing Yards

  • Washington +18.1% PROE on Standard Downs (Fourth)
  • Washington +14.8% PROE on Passing Downs (Ninth)

This is pretty simple. In 2022, Washington passed in neutral scripts, and they passed over expectations in passing scripts. That is exactly what you want when taking an over on passing pards. Boise State ranks 104th in overall defensive returning production, 71st in forced incompletions returning production and 115th in pressure returning production. This sets up for what could be a huge day for Michael Penix Jr.

Caleb Williams (QB – USC) Under 296.5 Passing Yards

  • USC +10.4% PROE on Standard Downs (15th)
  • USC +9.01% PROE on Passing Downs (23rd)
  • Nevada 54th in EPA Pass Def on Standard Downs
  • Nevada 42nd in EPA Pass Def on Passing Downs

If you ask your casual football fan, “Do you think Caleb Williams will pass for over 300 yards vs. Nevada this weekend?” The vast majority will say, “of course.” On the surface, Nevada is above-average in passing defense in all situations. Nevada ranks 30th in overall defensive returning production, 24th in forced incompletions returning production and 27th in pressures returning production. I will go against the grain and take Nevada to keep Caleb Williams slightly in check.

Jordan Travis (QB – Florida State) Under 252.5 Passing Yards

  • Florida State -.002% PROE on Standard Downs (77th)
  • Florida State +2.1% PROE on Passing Downs (59th)
  • LSU 8th in EPA Pass Def on Standard Downs
  • LSU 87th in EPA Pass Def on Passing Downs

Florida State passes the ball at an average rate pretty much all the way around. Mike Norvell executes a balanced game plan. LSU has arguably a top-five defensive returning production profile. They will lack experience in the secondary (102nd in forced incompletions returning production), but they have immense talent. I see this game being a slugfest and not the wide-open game it was last year.

Blake Corum RB Michigan Over 87.5 Rushing Yards

  • Michigan -3.8% PROE on Standard Downs (98th)
  • Michigan -6.7% PROE on Passing Downs (107th)

As you might have expected, Michigan loves to run the ball, regardless of down and distance. This Saturday, they will have a matchup that should have them budding with anticipation. East Carolina ranks 116th in overall defensive returning production, 103rd in pressures returning production and 106th in stops returning production. East Carolina was extremely underrated from a defensive line standpoint in 2022, but they lost most of that talent. If Corum gets 15-20 rushing attempts, he will soar over this total.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App