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College Football PrizePicks Week 3 Player Predictions (2023)

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Last week was an incredible bounce back, going 3-1 on our PrizePicks plays with little sweat. Jalen Milroe was forced into a different game environment than expected and went over his total with some huge second-half plays. The other three picks crushed their prop totals.

Let’s dive into our favorite PrizePicks player predictions for Week 3 of the College Football season:

Best Week 3 College Football PrizePicks Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
Havoc Rate: The percentage a defense records a TFL, forces a fumble, intercepts a pass or breaks up a pass.
Success Rate: An efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:

  • The offense scored
  • First downs that gained at least 50% of the yards to go
  • Second down that gained at least 70% of the yards to go
  • Third and fourth downs that gain at least 100% of the yards to go

IsoPPP: Explosive plays of 15+ yards

As you can see, Old Dominion does not pass the ball even when the game script says they should. That, on top of facing a solid Wake Forest secondary, is a recipe for disaster. This line should be closer to 205-210 passing yards, so we will take the obvious value of under 233.5 passing yards.

Athan Kaliakmanis (QB – Minnesota) Under 199.50 Passing Yards

  • Minnesota -8.11% PROE on Standard Downs (111th)
  • Minnesota -4.44% PROE on Passing Downs (95th)
  • North Carolina 37th in Overall Def Havoc Rate
  • North Carolina 73rd in Def Pass Success Rate
  • North Carolina 72nd in Def Pass IsoPPP

Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been notorious for a plodding, controlling style of offense. The game plan is simple: run between the tackles paired with short RPO-style routes. North Carolina is not elite from a defensive standpoint, but they are also not a burden. Their ability to cause havoc could lead to a treacherous time for Athan Kaliakmanis.

Garrett Shrader (QB – Syracuse) Over 246.5 Passing Yards

  • Syracuse +7.77% PROE on Standard Downs (32nd)
  • Syracuse +5.11% PROE on Passing Downs (45th)
  • Purdue 91st in Overall Def Havoc Rate
  • Purdue 105th in Def Pass Success Rate
  • Purdue 94th in Def Pass IsoPPP

The questions about how Syracuse’s offense would be run with an offensive coordinator change this offseason have been put to bed. They intend to throw the ball considerably above expected rates. This will allow Garrett Shrader to carve up Purdue from all levels. He should throw from a clean pocket for the majority of the game.

Jayden De Laura (QB – Arizona) Over 291.50 Passing Yards

  • Arizona +10% PROE on Standard Downs (21st)
  • Arizona +8.18% PROE on Passing Downs (34th)
  • UTEP 97th in Overall Def Havoc Rate
  • UTEP 39th in Def Pass Success Rate
  • UTEP 122nd in Def Pass IsoPPP

UTEP is solid from a success rate perspective, but they give up a plethora of big plays. Jayden De Laura will have ample opportunities to throw the ball and should succeed at numerous levels. If he gets 40 passing attempts, he will sail over this total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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