The Orange Bowl features college football two powerhouses. Both teams love to play power football and have two of the better defenses in the country. They also love to run the football, so this game will be decided in the trenches. Let’s examine and build a same-game parlay (SGP) for Notre Dame vs. Penn State.
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Best College Football Same Game Parlay Picks: Orange Bowl
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Leg 1: Under 45.5 Points (-115)
- Leg 2: Kaytron Allen 53+ Rushing Yards (-130)
- Leg 3: Under 5 Total Touchdowns (-105)
Penn State has picked up two easy wins on the road to the College Football Playoff (CFP) semi-finals. They have been able to drop 30+ points in both games and have a +45 scoring differential.
They will want to eat up as much time on offense as possible and smother their opponent on defense. Penn State had one of the best defensive units in the nation, ranking seventh in net defensive expected points added (EPA). They were led by one of the toughest defensive fronts, finishing with 2.6 sacks per game (27th), led by Abdul Carter (22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks). Notre Dame was great at keeping Riley Leonard upright, allowing 1.4 sacks per game (28th)
Offensively, Penn State will want to establish the run and play smash-mouth football. They will look to Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who have been highly successful throughout this playoff run; Allen is averaging 7.5 yards per carry in the playoffs, while Singleton is averaging 6.8. Relying on the run game has meant they haven't needed Drew Allar to take over a game. He's been more efficient than explosive, keeping his passing yards to under 200 yards in each game, but he has not turned the ball over.
The apprehension about Notre Dame is they did not play their best game against Georgia. They only had 244 total yards, which was only 10 more than Gunner Stockton’s passing yards. Georgia's turnovers and Notre Dame's kickoff return for a touchdown got them the win.
Notre Dame needs to get Jeremiyah Love going in this game. He's been relatively contained in the playoffs; if you take away his 98-yard touchdown, he has just 13 carries for 29 yards. The Irish luckily have the dual-threat Leonard, but if the Nittany Lions defense can focus on him and Love can't produce his usual numbers, we could see Notre Dame struggle to move the ball.
The biggest X factor for Notre Dame was the loss of defensive lineman Rylie Mills, who would have been one of the key players who could stop the run.
This will be one of those games where the team that loses will be the first to make a mistake. Both teams will try to get the advantage in the run game, but the team that can hit a pass at the opportune time could earn the win. Each defense also gets tough when it counts. Notre Dame is fifth in third-down defense; Penn State is 23rd. This looks like a game where most of the net yards will come from punts.
Parlay Odds: +546
