College Football Week 1: Early Lines, Odds, & Predictions
Week 0 gave us several high-quality games to watch, starting with Georgia Tech’s upset of Florida State in Dublin, Ireland. Montana State pulled off a big-time comeback in the final few minutes of the fourth quarter to beat New Mexico on the road despite being an FCS team. SMU trailed Nevada for most of their matchup but quarterback Preston Stone and tight end R.J. Maryland went ballistic in the fourth quarter, winding up with a 29-24 win on the road against the Wolf Pack. Hawai’i kicked off at midnight and won by three touchdowns over FCS opponent, Delaware State, but it wasn’t enough to cover the opening 38-point spread in Honolulu.
Now, we’re getting a full slate of games heading into Week 1 of the 2024 college football season. It kicks off on Thursday, August 29, with four of the nation’s top 25 teams playing a non-ranked opponent. I’ll be previewing one of the more intriguing Thursday games in this article, monitoring line movement and offering a prediction in four total games, which will be played on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 1
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Day | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| North Carolina | Minnesota | +2 | +1.5 | 50 | 50.5 | Monday | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| Penn State | West Virginia | +9 | +8.5 | 51.5 | 50.5 | Monday | -0.5 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | Texas A&M | -3 | -3 | – | 46.5 | Monday | – | N/A |
| LSU | USC | +5 | +4.5 | 63.5 | 63.5 | Monday | +0.5 | 0 |
North Carolina vs. Minnesota
UNC and Minnesota will kick off on Thursday night from Minneapolis, Minnesota. Despite neither team being ranked inside the top-25, this is a matchup that could offer plenty of entertainment.
Both teams have a new quarterback, as UNC lost Drake Maye, while Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck will need to find a way to generate more offense than we’ve seen during his tenure. In 2023, Minnesota ranked 110th in points per game (20.9) and relied on its stalwart defense to get the job done, winding up with a 6-7 record, winning only three games in the Big Ten.
UNC still has head coach Mack Brown, plus running back Omarion Hampton and wideouts Nate McCollum and Kobe Paysour. Oddsmakers have the Tar Heels valued as a slight moneyline favorite at -122, with the opening point spread shrinking from -2 to -1.5. UNC allowed slightly more points per game (27.3) in 2023 than Minnesota, which is why the point total is set to 50.5.
In this Big Ten – ACC matchup, I expect to see two offenses adjusting to their new personnel. Minnesota should continue to field a strong defense, while the Tar Heels’ defense has the advantage against a weaker Minnesota offense. The point total under 50.5 is my favorite bet in this game.
Best Bet: Under 50.5 (-110)
Penn State (8) vs. West Virginia
On Saturday, the eighth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions head to Morgantown, West Virginia to face the West Virginia Mountaineers. It’s a big game for both sides, especially Penn State, who have underachieved during the four-team College Football Playoff with head coach James Franklin. The expanded 12-team CFP should give quarterback Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions’ offense a bit more confidence to qualify and make a run in 2024.
West Virginia went to Happy Valley and got trounced in Week 1 last year, falling 38-15. Garrett Greene returns after completing only 53 percent of his pass attempts in 2023, throwing for 2,400 yards and 16 touchdowns. His mobility is the biggest asset Greene possesses, but against Penn State’s stout defensive front, moving the football will be difficult.
Allar and his stable of running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, return with a vengeance. The Mountaineers’ run defense surrendered 4.2 YPC and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023, while allowing a 60.2 percent completion rate and 26 passing touchdowns. It feels like Penn State needs to make a statement win on the road in Week 1.
While the point spread has gone down from -9 to -8.5 on Penn State, I’m confident that we’ll see a similar score compared to 2023. Let’s stake a unit on the Nittany Lions to cover -8.5 and stifle the Mountaineers’ offense, while controlling the line of scrimmage and scoring in abundance.
Best Bet: Penn State -8.5 (-110)
Notre Dame (7) vs. Texas A&M (20)
Riley Leonard and former Duke head coach, Mike Elko, will face off against each other when No. 7 Notre Dame takes on No. 20 Texas A&M on the road in Week 1 on Saturday night.
The Fighting Irish are +3 on the point spread, making them road underdogs despite being ranked 13 spots higher. It’ll be very interesting to watch how Leonard and Elko dissect each other throughout the game. Both individuals know how the other operates, and Leonard holds the edge since he’s the player on the field who can make the adjustments.
The Aggies return Connor Weigman under center and have a new tight end, Tre Watson, transferred from Fresno State, with a couple of new additions along the offensive line. Notre Dame lost Audric Estime to the NFL, their physical RB1, but expect Leonard’s dual-threat ability to gel well under head coach Marcus Freeman.
Out of our four games we’re analyzing in this article, oddsmakers have the point total set the lowest, currently at 46.5. This makes sense due to both teams historically placing an emphasis on running the football. The point spread momentarily dipped down to +2.5 before climbing back to +3 on Notre Dame. I believe that the Fighting Irish can keep this game within a field goal to cover and should be able to secure the outright win despite playing in a hostile SEC road environment.
Let’s stake a unit on Notre Dame +3 before it gets any shorter later in the week.
Best Bet: Notre Dame +3 (-110)
LSU (13) vs. USC (23)
Our final game projects to be a high-scoring matchup between No. 13 LSU and No. 23 USC in the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic. Hosted on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, USC and head coach Lincoln Riley will attempt to adjust to life without quarterback Caleb Williams.
LSU and head coach Brian Kelly enter this game as -4.5 on the point spread. The Tigers are also going to try to trot out a revamped roster that no longer has a pair of elite wideouts, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., alongside 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout between both of these teams, with the current point total set to 63.5. The Trojans’ defense was abysmal in 2023 and LSU’s was also porous, ranked 82nd out of 133 FBS programs. However, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is a far cry from Daniels, and USC quarterback Miller Moss, who did throw six touchdowns in his last outing against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, is still inexperienced.
If there’s a betting market I like in this matchup, it’s siding with the Trojans to cover the point spread at +4.5. Zachariah Branch is a weapon at wideout and we’ve seen what Moss can do, while Nussmeier has far less weapons in his arsenal. USC also moved off of their old defensive coordinator, so expect a bit of improvement. Both teams have some adjustments to make on offense, but I give the edge to Riley and Moss in this contest.
Best Bet: USC +4.5 (-112)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.