College Football Week 1 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 1 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia.
College Football Week 1 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia
Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. West Virginia
Wow, talk about an overlay! My system is showing double-digits of point value on the Panthers in the annual Backyard Brawl rivalry game. Simple explanation, really: I'm higher on Pitt and lower on West Virginia than the market.
Pitt cannot win in the same way it did during last season's 11-3 resurgence. Round 1 QB Kenny Pickett, Biletnikoff-winning WR Jordan Addison, OC Mark Whipple, and WR coach Brennan Marion, the four men most responsible for the incredible year-over-year surge in passing output, are all gone.
But Pitt's replacements for Pickett and Addison - portal adds QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and ex-Akron WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation rate against single coverage, per PFF) - were well-reasoned. The rushing attack should be better this fall, with a deep stable of backs returning. That won't make up for all the regression coming on the passing side, but it'll make up for some.
Additionally, Pitt's defense should be better. It returns seven starters from a unit that ranked No. 2 in sacks per game and No. 5 in EPA/run last season. The 2021 unit finished No. 29 SP+. This year's looks should be top-25.
In short: Pitt's contingency plan for expected regression jives with me. West Virginia's does not.
The Mountaineers are 16-17 over HC Neal Brown's three-year tenure after last season's 6-7 step-back. Brown pushed out OC Gerad Parker and former starting QB Jarret Doege over the offseason and replaced them with Air Raid guru OC Graham Harrell and former USC/Georgia QB JT Daniels. Those swaps were fine, but Brown could not prevent WR1 Winston Wright from fleeing to Florida State in the portal, and his RB room is unproven.
The biggest concern is the defense, a unit that has saved a sagging offense the past few years. This time around, WVU loses its top-five tacklers and only returns four starters. There are particularly big questions in the secondary, which is being remade from the ground up. I see West Virginia as a 3-9 or 4-8 team that fires Brown. The market sees West Virginia as a coinflip to go bowling.
Bet: Pittsburgh (-7.5)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.