College Football Week 1: Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The long wait is finally over, and a new college football season is here. After a nice appetizer in Week 0, there is a full slate of lines for Week 1. Marquee matchups and paycheck games pack the schedule from Thursday to Monday. With many lopsided spreads this early in the year, it can be overwhelming to sift through the weeds to find the long shots that can cover these massive spreads or even win outright.
My goal is to help find some of these spots. I will focus on large underdogs that can cover the spread and some that I like on the money line. Here are the matchups to keep an eye on for week 1:
Cincinnati +6 at Arkansas (+196)
After a dream season in 2021, Cincinnati is looking to prove its success was no fluke. They'll open up the 2022 campaign on the road against Arkansas. The Razorback faithful are hoping head coach Sam Pittman can build on a bit of a renaissance season in Fayetteville. They return their talented quarterback, KJ Jefferson, but will need to replace a lot of last year's production at the skill positions. Cincinnati lost a lot of NFL talent of its own on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, so it is easy to see why the home Razorbacks are favored in this matchup.
Luke Fickell has built one of the best programs in the nation at Cincinnati. The last few years have shown the Bearcats are not afraid to play anyone anywhere. This defense may not have the household names from the last few seasons, but they're still talented and expect to challenge as a top-10 unit in the country. This is the Bearcat's best non-conference opportunity to show the committee they deserve playoff consideration again. Fickell will have this team ready to make a statement. Cincinnati should pull off the upset at +196.
Middle Tennessee +5.5 at James Madison (+180)
After being a force in FCS for years, James Madison is taking the leap to the FBS. They start off hosting Middle Tennessee in Week 1. James Madison has high hopes, but these transitions are rarely seamless. The Dukes lost a lot on both sides of the ball, and life won't be quite as easy as it was for them in the lower division. Middle Tennessee was not great offensively last year but seemed to be putting it together late into the season. The Blue Raiders were able to put up points on some of the weaker opponents on their schedule, and James Madison heads into 2022 fitting that profile. Though the Middle Tennessee defense has holes to fill, they could be negated by James Madison's own offensive holes.
The Blue Raiders are undervalued here and, frankly, the better team. This is a competitive FBS squad capable of going into Harrisonburg and upsetting a James Madison team in both a divisional and roster transition. Look for Middle Tennessee (+180) to start off 2022 with a victory.
Utah State +41.5 at Alabama (-110)
Alabama has its sights set on another national championship. They will host Utah State on Saturday, where they find themselves around six touchdown favorites. Coming off a less-than-stellar performance in Week 0 against Connecticut, the Aggies will have their work cut out for them, but I think they can cover this bloated spread. After a banner 2021 campaign, the Aggies return key pieces from one of the best offenses in the Mountain West, including star quarterback Logan Bonner. Last Saturday's performance was not completely indicative of the talent of this Utah State team. The offense is capable of putting up points, and though Alabama's defense is better than any they will see, the Aggies won't lay down. They should be able to put enough points on the board.
The Crimson Tide are used to being massive favorites, but usually against teams with much lesser statistical profiles. This is an 11-3 team that returns both their leading passer and leading rusher, not some middle-of-the-road FCS pushover. Regardless, Nick Saban won't let his team overlook any opponent, but Alabama has a looming contest with Texas in Week 2. I could see Saban calling the dogs off early if things get out of hand to ensure he keeps his starters healthy and rested for the matchup with the Longhorns. It will be a comfortable Alabama win, but Utah State should cover the 41.5-point spread.
Notre Dame +17.5 at Ohio State (-110)
Ohio State opened as 13.5-point favorites for this marquee matchup, and lines have continued to move in the Buckeyes' direction. Columbus has a lot of excitement for what is expected to be the nation's best offense. The defense, however, could not limit strong running attacks in 2021. In an effort to add a level of toughness to the unit, Jim Knowles was hired from Oklahoma State to be the defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes. The defense will eventually improve on last season's struggles, but it should take a few weeks before the new scheme clicks the way they hope it will.
One coach who isn't afraid of this matchup is Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman. In last year's Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State, his Fighting Irish scored 35 on the same scheme he'll face on Saturday. The Ohio State offense is as explosive and talented as any we've seen, but last season when playing against top-25 SP+ defenses, they never managed to win by any more than 14 points. Ohio State is the better team and should take care of business at home, but the line has exploded, so expect Notre Dame to cover +17.5.
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