College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Thursday (9/1)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 1 odds, picks, and predictions for Thursday’s games.
College Football Week 1 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Thursday
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia
Wow, talk about an overlay! My system is showing double-digits of point value on the Panthers in the annual Backyard Brawl rivalry game. Simple explanation, really: I'm higher on Pitt and lower on West Virginia than the market.
Pitt cannot win in the same way it did during last season's 11-3 resurgence. Round 1 QB Kenny Pickett, Biletnikoff-winning WR Jordan Addison, OC Mark Whipple, and WR coach Brennan Marion, the four men most responsible for the incredible year-over-year surge in passing output, are all gone.
But Pitt's replacements for Pickett and Addison - portal adds QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and ex-Akron WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation rate against single coverage, per PFF) - were well-reasoned. The rushing attack should be better this fall, with a deep stable of backs returning. That won't make up for all the regression coming on the passing side, but it'll make up for some.
Additionally, Pitt's defense should be better. It returns seven starters from a unit that ranked No. 2 in sacks per game and No. 5 in EPA/run last season. The 2021 unit finished No. 29 SP+. This year's looks should be top-25.
In short: Pitt's contingency plan for expected regression jives with me. West Virginia's does not.
The Mountaineers are 16-17 over HC Neal Brown's three-year tenure after last season's 6-7 step-back. Brown pushed out OC Gerad Parker and former starting QB Jarret Doege over the offseason and replaced them with Air Raid guru OC Graham Harrell and former USC/Georgia QB JT Daniels. Those swaps were fine, but Brown could not prevent WR1 Winston Wright from fleeing to Florida State in the portal, and his RB room is unproven.
The biggest concern is the defense, a unit that has saved a sagging offense the past few years. This time around, WVU loses its top-five tacklers and only returns four starters. There are particularly big questions in the secondary, which is being remade from the ground up. I see West Virginia as a 3-9 or 4-8 team that fires Brown. The market sees West Virginia as a coinflip to go bowling.
Bet: Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Penn State vs. Purdue
Going 11-11 over his past two seasons, Penn State head coach James Franklin was still awarded a big contract but hasn't quite won over the fan base by most accounts. At the helm, Sean Clifford is back at quarterback for yet another season, as the senior gunslinger has turned into one of the best game managers in the country, but little beyond that.
Freshman running back Nicholas Singleton will get his first shot with the Nittany Lions and could be the spark that this offense needs after scoring just 25 points per game last season.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers come in off of the best season of the Jeff Brohm era as he got his team to 9-4, winning big games vs. Iowa, Nebraska, and Michigan State as underdogs. Aidan O'Connell is back for his senior season, as is Purdue's leading rusher in King Doerue.
While Purdue is turning into a trendy underdog pick here, I like the more talented Nittany Lions in this one.
Bet: Penn State -3.5
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State
I had this game as closer to a two-touchdown gap, so I'm gladly taking the 21+ points as one of my favorite plays of the week. Now in his fourth year here, head coach Jim McElwain should have his guys at CMU, and that started to show last season as they finished 9-4 in their best season in the past five years.
Last season in a similar spot vs. Missouri, the Chippewas held their own, losing 24-34 as 14-point dogs, adding to three straight covers in opening games in the McElwain era.
As for the Cowboys, they've started slow out of the gates in the last few seasons under Mike Gundy, going 0-2 ATS against similar opponents in openers over the past two seasons. Though they do get quarterback Spencer Sanders back, the Cowboys will lose their leading rusher in Jaylen Warre, as well as top wide receiver Tay Martin.
Also losing their top four tacklers, I like for the Okie State to fall short of the spread in this one.
Bet: CMU +21
Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri
Bet: Louisiana Tech +19.5
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