College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Take a look at some of our top picks from Week 1’s slate of college football action.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. West Virginia
My system shows double-digits of point value on the Panthers in the annual Backyard Brawl. The market is clearly more pessimistic about Pitt following offseason losses than I am. More to the point, I'm far lower on West Virginia than the marketplace.
Pitt won the ACC and finished 11-3 last season behind a suddenly-explosive passing offense. That passing attack will be down after losing the four men most responsible for the surge, R1 QB Kenny Pickett, Biletnikoff-winning WR Jordan Addison (USC), OC Mark Whipple (Nebraska) and WR coach Brennan Marion (Texas).
But Pitt's replacements for Pickett and Addison - portal adds QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and ex-Akron WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation rate against single coverage, per PFF) - were well-reasoned, ensuring the aerial attack won't completely fall off a cliff. Meanwhile, the rushing attack should be better with a deep stable of talented RBs returning.
That won't make up for all the regression coming on the passing side, but it'll make up for some. Defensive improvement will make up even more. Pitt returns seven starters on that side of the ball from a unit that ranked No. 2 in sacks per game and No. 5 in EPA/run last season. The 2021 unit finished No. 29 SP+ overall and is likely to be top 25 this fall.
Pitt's contingency plan for expected regression jives with me. West Virginia's does not.
WVU HC Neal Brown is on the hot seat after going 16-17 in his first three years, including 6-7 last season. Feeling the heat, Brown pushed out OC Gerad Parker and former starting QB Jarret Doege over the offseason. He replaced them with Air Raid guru OC Graham Harrell and former USC/Georgia QB JT Daniels.
No problem with those swaps - both are upgrades. But it's fair to note that Daniels has been run out of his last two stops after losing the starting job. And it would be understandable if Daniels is covered in rust. After attempting 363 passes as a true fresh at USC in 2018, Daniels has attempted just 247 in the last three seasons combined.
The Mountaineers lost WR1 Winston Wright to Florida State in the portal and then lost potential platoon back RB Lyn-J Dixon after its former starter graduated. Skill depth is lacking. But the biggest questions for WVU are on defense.
That unit saved a sagging offense the past few years. This time around, WVU loses its top-five tacklers. Only four starters return. There are particularly big questions in the secondary, which is being remade from the ground up.
The market believes West Virginia has a decent shot to go bowling. I see West Virginia as a 3-9 or 4-8 team. I do not believe Brown will survive the fall. I think his demise begins with a double-digit loss to Pitt in the opener.
Bet: Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Illinois (+4.5) @ Indiana
This game is going to be UGLY! Illinois was really impressive in their Week Zero win against Wyoming, scoring in every quarter and piling up over 250 rushing yards. That task won't be as easy this week in a road matchup against Indiana, as the Hoosiers return six starters, including two All-Conference players. Illinois also has the advantage on defense because they played together last week and held Wyoming to 212 total yards and two field goals.
Indiana is only returning three starters, but they all are on the line. My concern is that the starting QB, the top two RBs, and the No. 2 WR are all transfers. I feel this game will be two struggling offenses slugging it out. Illinois is struggling against a strong defense, and Indiana is struggling due to a lack of live reps together. In this picture I've painted, it benefits to take the team getting the points and the under, so we'll do that in an early season slugfest!
Bet: Illinois (+4.5) AND Under 47.5
TCU (-13.5) @ Colorado
You'll have to get this one quick, as it was at TCU -10.5 a few days ago and seems to get bigger by the day! Sonny Dykes will bring a lot more offense to this team as his SMU teams were top 15 in passing and averaged over 300 passing yards per game. TCU was firmly in the middle last season at 60th in passing. While they won't jump up into that top 15 range, I think they should be much better with Chandler Morris at QB.
Quentin Johnston is an NFL-caliber receiver that only had 33 receptions last year and 22 as a Freshman, but that will change very quickly under Dykes. I know I've talked about continuity, and TCU has a new coach and offensive system, but Colorado is rough. They lost eight games last year, seven of which were wider than this margin, and I believe TCU will overpower them. Horned Frogs are easy in this one!
Bet: TCU (-13.5)
Cincinnati (+6.5) at Arkansas
The market spent the summer focusing on Cincinnati's losses, notably QB Desmond Ridder (R3), RB Jerome Ford (R5) and WR Alec Pierce (R2) on offense, and CB Sauce Gardner (No. 4 overall), CB Coby Bryant (R4), S Bryan Cook (R2) and EDGE Myjai Sanders (R3) on defense.
Perhaps not enough was made on the amount of talent HC Luke Fickell brought in and the ready-made replacements already on hand due to Fickell’s development system. Fickell added a top-25 recruiting class and multiple impact transfers to plug holes. Former Cincy signee QB Ben Bryant was re-imported from EMU to compete with four-star Evan Prater. RB Corey Kiner, a local kid who originally signed with LSU, could be this year's bellcow.
The market doesn't seem to be making as much of Arkansas' losses. WR Treylon Burks is gone, and only four starters return on defense. It's possible that the offense and defense could both be in for slight steps backward.
My system feels that this is too many points, projecting this game as closer to a pick 'em.
Bet: Cincinnati (+6.5)
Oregon (+17) vs. Georgia
This spread is giving Georgia too much respect after it just lost five round-0ne defenders and 15 total players to April's NFL Draft.
Georgia's defense will remain stout, no doubt. But a drop from one-of-the-best-defenses-of-the-past-20-years to "merely" a top-3 national defense is a substantial drop nonetheless.
Oregon has 14 starters back. The Ducks are improved at QB, they might be improved at RB and the entire offensive line returns. The defense will probably also get better, with seven starters back. EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux is a big loss, but he was in and out of the lineup last year, and Oregon's defensive line had poor havoc numbers that they're likely to improve upon in 2022.
There's one other factor going heavily in Oregon's favor: New Ducks HC Dan Lanning, the architect of Georgia's 2021 defense, knows UGA's personnel inside and out and has had the summer to gameplan for it.
I think the Bulldogs ultimately win, but 17 is too many points. I think Oregon keeps this one within the number in a game that will be more spirited than the public is anticipating.
Bet: Oregon (+17)
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