College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

by Ryan Rodeman |
Aug 30, 2023

The beauty of college football is in its unpredictability. Each year, we get crazy upsets, even in Week 1 when there are often some lopsided lines. In this weekly piece I'll highlight a few plays I like where the long-shot underdog has a great chance to win outright. Let's jump right into the action to find some long shot winners.

College Football Week 1 Long Shot Bets

North Carolina State (-14.5) at Connecticut (+525)

The Wolfpack travel to Connecticut to take on the Huskies in what may be the biggest home game in nearly a decade. The Huskies finished with a surprising 6-7 record and qualified for a bowl for the first time in seven years. They return the 6th most production in the nation per SP+. Not much is expected from their offense. They ranked just 128th in SP+, but they return the 2nd most production per the metric. QB Joe Fagnano will take over the reigns after transferring from Maine and seems to have the confidence of HC Jim Mora.

Fagnano will have his hands full with a Wolfpack defense that comes in with high expectations. However, they've lost a lot from the previous season. The NC State offense, on the other hand, struggled on the road last season failing to score more than 24 points in regulation in any game. With a big spot coming up against an impressive Notre Dame in Week 2, this is very much a look ahead spot for the Wolfpack. After being a long shot darling in 2022, I like UConn to reignite that magic and pull off the first huge upset of the 2023 season on Thursday night.

Central Michigan (+450) at Michigan State (-14)

For the 12th time in history, these two schools, separated by a one hour car ride will square off. Although Michigan State has won the last four in the series, Central Michigan managed to pull out victories in three of the first seven. The Chippewas will not be intimidated by this Spartan outfit. It is a crucial year for fourth year HC Mel Tucker in East Lansing. With his starting QB Payton Thorne and star WR Keon Coleman transferring in the offseason, the offense will need to rely on unproven talent in QB Noah Kim and WR Alante Brown. It was an offense that already struggled to put up points against decent defenses in 2022. The Chippewas return the 8th most production on the defensive side of the ball per SP+ and the unit ranks 90th overall in defense. It's a solid, experienced MAC unit that should give the Spartans all they can handle.

With QB Daniel Richardson transferring to FAU, QB Jase Bauer is expected to take over. He'll have a set of young wide receivers to work with that might have early things to work out. But a trio of experienced RBs who all averaged 4.5 yards per carry or better last year will help take the load off of the young QB. With so little returning production on the defensive side for MSU it's hard to count the Chippewas out. They're a well coached team under former Florida HC Jim McElwain and they're looking to take that next step in the MAC in 2023. No better way to get the season started than in a venue they're familiar winning at in East Lansing on Friday night.

California (-6.5) at North Texas (+230)

The Golden Bears of Cal will travel to Denton, Texas to take on North Texas in this Week 1 matchup. There are a lot of concerns about the North Texas defense that gave up 31 or more points in six of seven losses last season. North Texasâ€™ woeful defense explains why Cal enters as nearly touchdown favorites despite beating just one FBS opponent by more than seven all last year. In addition, Cal will start a quarterback with six career attempts in Sam Jackson. The inexperience on offense could help North Texas negate their biggest weakness.

For all the concerns about the North Texas defense, their offense should remain solid. Their SP+ ranking in offense is 57th, higher than Cal's. Stone Earle will take over the Mean Green's offense. He's a dual threat QB that could give the Cal defense fits like they did against dynamic QBs such as Caleb Williams and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This is a perfect spot to pull off an early upset statement win.

Texas Tech (-14) at Wyoming (+460)

Texas Tech is a team that is hoping to take the next step in the Big 12 and compete with the likes of Texas for the conference championship. Their first test of the season will come on the road, at 7,220 feet elevation, in Wyoming. The Cowboys will be poised to build off of a season in which they went 7-6. They aren't thought of very highly in some of the advanced rankings, but they return a bunch of production on both sides of the ball. That kind of experience can't be overlooked. Additionally, the elevation may be their friend in trying to slow down the 17th ranked offense per SP+.

Wyoming has been a solid program under HC Craig Bohl and with all the returning players, they're looking to take the next step. Texas Tech is a talented team on offense, but the Cowboys have a defense that ranks among the best in Group of 5 per SP+. They have the tools, aided with a distinct home field advantage, to slow them down enough to make this a game and give themselves a chance to pull off the major upset.

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