College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/3)
Check out our top odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s College Football Week 1 action.
College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
Utah at Florida
The books made a mistake in opening Florida as favorites over the summer. This line has crept up to Utah -3, essentially flipped from the opener. And I like the Utes to win.
Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah forever. This is his most talented team. The Utes now have a legitimate top-20 offense to go with the perennial top-20 defense. Eight starters return on offense, including breakout star QB Cam Rising.
Rising’s dual-threat game is a perfect fit next to hammer back RB Tavion Thomas, who punched in 21 TD last year. Four starters return on the offensive line, and Utah’s power-game ethos is aided by one of the nation’s premier TE duos.
I’m bullish on Florida HC Billy Napier long-term. But I wouldn’t choose the opener to invest in his Gators. Florida has questions along the offensive line and on defense. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Utah licked Florida in the trenches, and if that happens, the Utes will win this game by double-digit points.
Bet: Utah (-3)
- Thor Nystrom
Rice at USC
Hold your nose and jump. My system is showing six points of value on Rice. You can consider those six points a straight tax on USC offseason hype.
The Trojans’ offense should be awesome immediately. HC Lincoln Riley, QB Caleb Williams and WR Mario Williams, who came over together from Oklahoma, provide a sort of continuity. WR Jordan Addison rivals CeeDee Lamb as the best WR that Riley has ever coached. RB Travis Dye should put up big numbers this year behind an awesome USC OL on the interior.
But USC has major question marks on defense. There are just as many new faces on defense as on offense, they just aren’t as accomplished and don’t have the star power. USC DC Alex Grinch has recently sounded pessimistic about that unit’s progress.
Rice lacks USC’s talent, but it has continuity going for it. The Owls have 14 starters back, and the coaching staff returns intact. Last year’s team went 4-8, the first time Rice had won four games since 2015.
HC Mike Bloomgren, David Shaw’s former OC at Stanford, prefers the snail’s pace we typically associate with the Cardinal. Last year, Rice ranked in the bottom-15 in the nation in offensive pace, preferring to huddle up and bleed the play clock before snapping.
And though Riley is known for explosive offenses, his offenses don’t play at the tempo most think. Last year’s Oklahoma team only ranked No. 92 in pace. The year before, No. 96. In 2019, No. 86.
This game won’t have as many possessions as an average FBS game, so USC will not only need to score at will to cover this number, but the Trojans’ work-in-progress defense will need to come out of the gates with a dominant performance. Rice is the play.
Bet: Rice (+32.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Cincinnati at Arkansas
The market spent the summer focusing on Cincinnati’s losses, notably QB Desmond Ridder (R3), RB Jerome Ford (R5) and WR Alec Pierce (R2) on offense, and CB Sauce Gardner (No. 4 overall), CB Coby Bryant (R4), S Bryan Cook (R2) and EDGE Myjai Sanders (R3) on defense.
Perhaps not enough was made on the amount of talent HC Luke Fickell brought in and the ready-made replacements already on hand due to Fickell’s development system. Fickell added a top-25 recruiting class and multiple impact transfers to plug holes. Former Cincy signee QB Ben Bryant was re-imported from EMU to compete with four-star Evan Prater. RB Corey Kiner, a local kid who originally signed with LSU, could be this year’s bellcow.
The market doesn’t seem to be making as much of Arkansas’ losses. WR Treylon Burks is gone, and only four starters return on defense. It’s possible that the offense and defense could both be in for slight steps backward.
My system feels that this is too many points, projecting this game as closer to a pick ‘em.
Bet: Cincinnati (+6.5)
- Thor Nystrom
WKU at Hawai’i
Week 1 is tough for oddsmakers and bettors alike, so let’s use some info from Week Zero to help us! What we saw from both of these teams last week tells me they aren’t ready to put their best foot forward quite yet, and I don’t think much will change in a week. WKU mustered 388 total yards against FCS Austin Peay, and they only put up a total lower than that once last year, which was in a 27-point win against MTSU.
Hawai’i was demolished last week by Vanderbilt 63-10. They were 5/16 on 3rd down, punted six times, and barely cleared a 50% completion in the passing game. These offenses will get better, but right now, Hawai’i is adjusting to a new coaching staff, and WKU lost so many great offensive players. The defenses aren’t great, but the offenses aren’t clicking yet, so I’ll take the under.
Bet: Under 67.5
- Scott Bogman
Notre Dame at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are a 17-point favorite at home as of this writing, and their offense will obviously be hard for the Fighting Irish to slow down. But I wouldn’t touch the line unless it dips below that 17 mark, and I’d focus more on the OVER. The number is at 59 right now, which appears excessively low to me considering QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead an Ohio State offense that could put up 45 alone against most teams. The OVER has hit in 13 of the last 19 Ohio State games, but it’s also 7-2 in Notre Dame’s last nine games against the Big Ten.
The pick: OVER 59 (-110)
- Mike Farrell
Oregon vs. Georgia (in ATL)
Considered a neutral site game, the Bulldogs will obviously have a huge advantage in atmosphere. But Oregon coach Dan Lanning helped build this UGA defense, and he knows the offense very well, so this could be a low-scoring affair – Or at least UNDER the 54-point number. When Georgia is a favorite, and the line is 17, the UNDER has come in 7 of the last 10 games. Add in Lanning’s knowledge, and this should be the play.
The pick: UNDER 54 (-110)
- Mike Farrell
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