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College Football Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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College football is back! The 2023 college football season kicked off with an exciting but small Week 0 slate. Now the rest of the teams get to join in on the fun with the start of Week 1. We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s Week 1 games.

Top College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks

Utah State vs. Iowa (-23.5), Total 45

The Hawkeyes enter the 2023 season with a higher offensive ceiling than they have had in a long time, bringing in former Michigan QB Cade McNamara through the transfer portal. That being said, they likely won’t reach their ceiling in Week 1, as McNamara is questionable to suit up.

Luckily for Iowa, their offense has never been their strong suit and they'll be taking on a Utah State squad that was ravaged on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, losing their leading rusher in addition to an All-Mountain West receiver. The Aggies were, however, able to land some transfer additions on the defensive side of the ball, so look for their defense to carry the water in the early part of the season. With McNamara's status in question, I expect the Iowa offense to resemble what it’s looked like in previous seasons, and I certainly don't expect Utah State's depleted offense to put up points against another elite Hawkeye defense.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-112)

-Austin MacMillan

East Carolina vs. Michigan (-35.5), Total 51.5

Jim Harbaugh’s status for this game had been one of the biggest talking points of the college football offseason. As the dust has settled, we now know Harbaugh and OC Sherrone Moore will be suspended for this game. I don’t expect Michigan to miss a beat, however. Michigan returns some of the most production in the country, especially on offense where they return QB JJ McCarthy and standout RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. With Harbaugh and Moore not on the sidelines, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan keep the offense vanilla, but vanilla is their strong suit.

East Carolina had a strong run defense in 2022, ranking 15th in EPA per play, but the 2023 Pirates lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball. The new clock rules in College Football are somewhat baked into these lines, but Michigan should control possession and pace with the ground game in this matchup. The Wolverines will win comfortably, but I’m targeting the under.

Pick: Under 51.5 (-105)

-Ryan Rodeman

Virginia vs. Tennessee (-28), Total 56.5

Much will be made of the fact that the Volunteers lost Hendon Hooker to the NFL Draft. But to replace Hooker with Joe Milton is such a gift for Tennessee, and it’s going to pay off for them in Week 1. Milton saw some significant playing time last season, and he threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns in the Volunteers’ bowl win over Clemson. While the Tennessee offense will be great again this season, the defense may leave a bit to be desired.

Luckily for the Volunteers, they start the year with Virginia, a team that was abysmal on offense last season. Tony Muskett transfers from Monmouth to take over the quarterback role from Brennan Armstrong. There will be a serious adjustment for Muskett, who takes a huge jump in competition. He’s going to be totally overwhelmed in his first game. Look for Tennessee to blow this one wide open and win comfortably.

Pick: Tennessee -28 (-110)

-Phil Wood

Colorado vs. TCU (-20.5), Total 63.5

After months of anticipation, Coach Prime will finally take the sidelines as HC of Colorado. He’s tried his best to reshape one of the worst rosters in FBS and there should be more success with the players he brought in on offense. However, the defense will still be rough. They ranked dead last in defensive EPA per game and it’s hard to turn that around in one season. TCU should move the ball up and down the field and this could really turn into a track meet. Like everything Coach Prime touches, this game should be entertaining from a scoring perspective and I’ll be targeting the over.

Pick: Over 63.5 (-109)

-Ryan Rodeman

Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma (-36), Total 58.5

The Sooners hope for a much better season in Year 2 of the Brent Venables era. They lost a few skill players, but they still have Dillion Gabriel behind center, who now has three seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards 25 touchdowns under his belt during his time at Central Florida and Oklahoma. Gabriel is someone who can elevate the pieces around him and push the ball.

While this defense was ranked near the bottom 40 in scoring, passing, and rushing last season, there is some optimism. This front seven can put an offensive line on its heels, and their 104 tackles for a loss was the third-most in the country last year. Arkansas State had a below-average offensive line last season, and OU should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball. On the other hand, 36 points is a big spread, and they only lost by 33 to the Ohio State last year. Take the Red Wolves getting the points.

Pick: Arkansas St. +36

-John Supowitz

UMass vs. Auburn (-35.5), Total 52.5

For the 1st time since 1973, the UMass Minutemen pulled off a road win in their opening game in a really impressive 41-30 defeat of a New Mexico State team coming off a bowl appearance. QB Taisun Phommachanh was dynamic, passing for 192 yards while rushing for 96, and Dom Brown's defense was stout, allowing only 10 points through the first 3 quarters of the game.

On the other side, the Auburn Tigers have a lot of questions to answer entering year 1 of the Hugh Freeze regime. The offense underwent a massive overhaul in the offseason, bringing in new faces on the offensive line, at receiver, and even at QB with the addition of former Michigan State QB Payton Thorne. I do believe this Tigers team will be much better than that of the teams in recent years, but I think this is too many points for a UMass team who already has a game under its belt against an Auburn offense that may need a couple of weeks to start clicking.

Pick: UMass +35.5 (-115)

-Austin MacMillan

Tennessee State vs. Notre Dame

We know Notre Dame's defense was great last year, but a lot of their struggles and losses were because they did not have the offensive support. Specifically, they did not have the quarterback that stretched the field, in comes Sam Hartman. After two successful seasons with Wake Forest, where he threw for 7,929 yards and 77 touchdowns, only CJ Stroud was better in the FBS, he comes to South Bend. He gave life to the Fighting Irish passing game over the pond as he went 19-23 with 251 passing yards and four touchdowns against Navy. The Irish looked great against Navy and they'll keep it rolling when they play home.

Pick: Notre Dame -55.5 (-110)

-John Supowitz

Ohio State (-30.5) vs. Indiana, Total 59

Last season, the Buckeyes obliterated the Hoosiers, 56-14. Obviously, the Buckeyes will have a different QB under center, as Kyle McCord takes over for CJ Stroud. McCord did see some action last season because the Buckeyes blew out so many teams, but he’s still a relative unknown heading into the season opener. Right now the Buckeyes are giving 30.5 points at some sportsbooks, and that’s just too many points. The Hoosiers are the home team, and though they certainly aren’t going to be one of the better teams in the Big 10, they weren’t a season ago either, and they only lost two games by more than 30 points. No matter which side you take in this one, you are going to sweat out the result, but do not be surprised to see Ohio State dominate and only win by a final of 31-10 or something similar as they take their foot off the gas.

Pick: Indiana +30.5 (-110)

-Phil Wood

Buffalo vs. Wisconsin (-27.5), Total 53.5

Saturday will give us our first look at the Badgers under new head coach Luke Fickell, who was one of the best hires of the offseason. While Badgers fans will be used to Fickell's hard-nosed defenses, Wisconsin is undergoing a major identity change offensively. The Wisconsin Badgers, yes the Wisconsin Badgers, are transitioning to an Air Raid offense under newly-hired OC Phil Longo, who most recently held the same position at North Carolina.

SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai comes in to lead this new offense and I expect the Badgers to come out firing against a Bulls defense that forced 26 turnovers but was highly susceptible to explosive passing plays a season ago. This line has steamed from -23.5 all the way to the current number of -27.5 and I agree with the move. Wisconsin's offense should get whatever it wants against an undermanned Buffalo defense as Fickell looks to start the new era with a bang. I also like a bet on the first half to cover us in the event the Badgers pull their starters early.

Pick: Wisconsin -27.5 & Wisconsin -14.5 1H

-Matt Barbato

Boise State vs. Washington (-14.5), Total 58.5

Washington comes into the 2023 season with lofty expectations as a potential College Football Playoff sleeper to watch out of the PAC 12. The Huskies not only have QB Michael Penix coming back, they also have a ton of returning production on both sides of the ball. The improvements need to come on the defensive side, especially against the pass, but the Huskies hit the portal hard and brought in several difference makers to both rush and defend the quarterback. Boise State could have a dynamic offense as well led by QB Taylen Green and running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty brining back 2,566 rushing yards from a season ago. However, a stingy Broncos defense will have to overcome the loss of three starters in the secondary. I have to see the improvements defensively for Washington before I believe them. And for that reason, I'm more inclined to take the over in a game featuring plenty of offensive firepower.

Pick: Over 58.5

-Matt Barbato

 

Rice vs. Texas (-35.5), Total 59

This game represents one of the biggest lookahead spots of Week 1, as the Texas Longhorns have a massive matchup with Alabama on deck next week. The Longhorns enter the year with Big 12 championship aspirations, if not more, and will look to start hot, then get out of dodge in the second half. It's worth noting that Texas drubbed UL-Monroe 52-10 in last year's season opener with 'Bama on deck. But the Owls might not be as much of a slouch this time around. Rice went 5-8 last year, qualifying for a bowl game despite a losing record thanks to their academics. The Owls have 80% of their offensive line starts back and have some of the most production returning in the American Conference.

Rice also has JT Daniels under center, and Daniels has tons of Power 5 experience during his stints with USC, Georgia and West Virginia. The problem is, Texas has a ton of QB depth behind starter Quinn Ewers, and this could be the day we see Arch Manning's collegiate debut. ULM was a relatively miserable team last season, and Rice won't be as incompetent. Texas has bigger fish to fry than blowing out Rice, and I expect them to take their foot off the gas relatively early. I'll hold my nose and take Rice so long as the spread stays above five touchdowns.

Pick: Rice +35.5

-Matt Barbato

New Mexico vs. Texas A&M (-38.5), Total 49

Texas A&M will debut a new offense led by new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino against a New Mexico defense that returns just one player who recorded a sack and one player who recorded an interception all of last season. This is an enormous opportunity for the Aggies to start the season on a strong note heading into a matchup with Miami-Florida next week. While laying more than five touchdowns is a little too rich for my blood, I do expect the Aggies to score early and often, making my favorite play one on Texas A&M's team total.

Pick: Texas A&M TT Over 43.5

-Matt Barbato

UTSA (-2) vs. Houston, Total 59.5

In one of the more interesting matchups of Week 1, the Big 12 newcomer Houston Cougars will take on the AAC newcomer UTSA Roadrunners. Houston enters the 2023 season in a precarious position after losing star offensive weapons Clayton Tune and Tank Dell to the NFL, with head coach Dana Holgorsen on the hot seat after leading the nation's 112th ranked defense in PPG. They were, however, able to pick up Donovan Smith from a loaded QB room at Texas Tech in the offseason, so I don’t expect a massive drop off from the offense.

The Roadrunners also suffered a loss at the receiver position with the transfer of their top pass catcher, Zakhari Franklin. However, they were able to pick up a massive win by retaining star QB Frank Harris and head coach Jeff Traylor. The continuity and certainty of the Roadrunners offense trumps that of the Cougars and makes me lean their way on this short spread, but the thing that I'm the most certain of in this matchup is that both teams will put up points.

Pick: Over 59.5 (-115)

-Austin MacMillan

North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina, Total 64.5

North Carolina looked great for 3/4 of last season, but collapsed down the stretch and lost their final four games. Drake Maye will garner a lot of attention as he's a potential Heisman candidate and a high draft pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. South Carolina began 2022 1-2 but finished 7-2, including wins against two ranked opponents (Tennessee and Clemson). After being sidelined at Oklahoma, quarterback Spencer Rattler came to South Carolina in hopes of redeeming himself. After struggling in the first part of the season, he finished strong with more than 200 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in three of his final four games.

North Carolina has a fast-paced, high-scoring offense, but so does South Carolina. Both defenses were not very good last year, with South Carolina ranking 87th in points allowed and North Carolina at 102nd. Bank on a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 64.5 (-110)

-John Supowitz

West Virginia vs. Penn State (-20.5), Total 50

With how important the quarterback position has become across football, it’s surprising to see a team with a starter with very little experience ranked No. 7 in the country. Yet that is where we find Penn State. The Nittany Lions will turn to Drew Allar to replace Sean Clifford who started every game in 2022. Allar threw 60 passes in 2022, and he didn’t throw a single interception, which is certainly a reason for hope. However, should the Nittany Lions really be favored by nearly three touchdowns in the opener against the Mountaineers? We don’t think so.

Garrett Greene starts under center for the Mountaineers, and he showed potential last season in limited action. However, like Allar, he has a long way to go, and he’s not getting a very good matchup in Week 1. The total for this game opened at 52.5, and despite more wagers coming in on the over than the under, the total has dropped as low as 50 at some major sportsbooks. With so many offensive unknowns and a really solid Penn State defense, it is safer to play the total than try to pick a side against the spread.

Pick: Under 50 (-110)

-Phil Wood

Texas Tech (-14) vs. Wyoming, Total 50.5

The Red Raiders enter the 2023 season as a popular dark horse candidate to take the Big 12 by storm in the second year under head coach Joey McGuire. Texas Tech should have an extremely explosive offense with OC guru Zach Kittley calling the shots for returning QB Tyler Shough and a surrounding cast that did not get raided by the transfer portal, which is pretty impressive in the landscape of today's college football. On the other sideline, head coach Craig Bohl will lead a Wyoming squad that perennially seems to outperform expectations and play in bowl games on a yearly basis. The Cowboys will almost certainly be led by their defense, as they return an offense that ranked 118th in the country and lost some key offensive line pieces in the offseason. I absolutely respect Wyoming as a program, but I don't think they have the offensive firepower to keep up with Texas Tech, even in the friendly confines of Laramie.

Pick: Texas Tech -14 (-105)

-Austin MacMillan

Sam Houston vs. BYU (-20), Total 47

Sam Houston will be making its FBS debut in this matchup as a newcomer to Conference USA under the leadership of head coach KC Keeler, who made the decision to exercise redshirt options on many key players last season to prep the Wildkats to make the jump to the big leagues this year. Sam Houston has perennially been an FCS powerhouse, winning a national title in 2021, and will be bringing in an offense that has some question marks but a defense with some carryover continuity and transfer additions that should be solid.

The BYU Cougars enter this season with a lot of uncertainties of their own, entering the Big 12 while losing their QB and leading receiver among several other offensive pieces. Their defense was underwhelming last year, ranking 86th in both yards and points allowed per game and coming in at an abysmal 124th in 3rd down conversions allowed. In a game with so many unknowns, I'll take the team with a pedigree of winning at a high level, especially getting nearly three touchdowns.

Pick: Sam Houston +20 (-110)

-Austin MacMillan

Coastal Carolina vs. UCLA (-14.5), Total 65.5

Grayson McCall is returning for yet another year behind center for Coastal Carolina. He’ll go up against a UCLA defense that finished 113th in EPA per game last year. It’s tough for teams to travel across the country, but this Coastal offense should still find some success at the Rose Bowl, which has been far from a home field advantage for UCLA over the years. On the other side, UCLA is breaking in a new QB and likely will play up to three QBs, but they’re all pretty talented. Luckily, for the Bruins, Coastal was just as bad defensively, ranking 110th in EPA per game. This game has the ability to go back and forth from kickoff to the final seconds. It’s one of the higher totals of the weekend but it’s one I’m leaning over.

Pick: Over 65.5 (-110)

-John Supowitz

More Week 1 College Football Picks


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