College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks: Saturday (2024)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for this week’s college football games on Saturday.
- More NCAAF Betting Advice
- Expert Game Picks for College Football
- Top Bettor Picks for College Football
- NCAAF Betting Strategy
Top College Football Odds & Picks: Week 1
Clemson vs. Georgia
The Georgia Bulldogs missed out on the College Football Playoff. But despite that, they're ranked No. 1 overall heading into Week 1. Potential Heisman candidate Carson Beck will lead the Bulldogs. Beck threw for nearly 4,000 yards and added 24 passing touchdowns with just six interceptions. His QBR was 86, which was good for 5th in the league. On the other hand, Clemson's secondary is badly beaten up, which could force the Tigers to rely on true freshmen. Georgia might feel more comfortable throwing, especially if Trevor Etienne is suspended for this game due to his DUI earlier in the year. Therefore, I'll back Georgia at -13.5 (-115).
Pick: Georgia -13.5 (-115)
-Jason Radowitz
Penn State vs. West Virginia
If Ohio State and Michigan didn't exist, Penn State would be one of the best teams in the nation year after year. The Nittany Lions surged past every team by nine or more points but the Buckeyes and Wolverines. That included a home win against the West Virginia Mountaineers, 38-15. The difference between that game and this Week 1 matchup is West Virginia is home in this one. Still, Drew Allar threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns in the win, while Garrett Greene of West Virginia went 16-for-27 for 162 yards. The Mountaineers were afraid to throw it much in that game until they were forced to down by multiple scores. There was a time in that game when Penn State led 31-7, up four scores. West Virginia has an exciting team, but Penn State has shown much more consistency over the years. Take Penn State at -8.
Pick: Penn State – 8 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
The Virginia Tech Hokies have been labeled as a sleeper team this year. On ESPN's College Game Day, Pat McAfee selected Virginia Tech to win the ACC and earn a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff this season. But that's ultimately a stretch. The Hokies only went 7-6 last season and finished just 2-4 on the road. They'll rely on junior Kyron Drones as the quarterback, but while he has some wheels, his accuracy in throwing the football is alarming. He only completed 58% of passes last season. On the other hand, Vanderbilt completely rebuilt its squad with many transfers, including quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia came from New Mexico State after a massive season with 26 touchdowns and a 61.6% completion percentage. Heading into the season, Vanderbilt is a mystery. But if nothing more, they're better than last season and probably don't deserve to be 13.5-point underdogs at home.
Pick: Vanderbilt +13.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Akron vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are set to steamroll the Zips on Saturday, but will they really cover by seven touchdowns? Last season, the Buckeyes scored more than 48 points just once, as they defeated the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 63-10. Even in that performance, they barely covered a 48.5-point spread. While it’s very likely that the Zips don’t score in this game, it’s also likely that the Buckeyes’ starters don’t see the field in the second half. Even if the Buckeyes are up 35-0 at halftime, we won’t be sweating this cover in the second half. It won’t be pretty, but Akron will hold on.
Pick: Akron +48.5 (-105)
-Phil Wood
Colorado State vs. Texas
This line continues to creep down to Texas -32, and on the surface, the line move makes sense. Texas has a matchup in the Big House with the defending national champions on deck, which means they probably won’t show a ton or play their starters deep into this game. That being said, the drop-off between Texas’ starters and backup isn’t all that wide, thanks to their high level of recruiting and depth. We’ll see Arch Manning get some work, and he’s probably one of the better backup QBs in the nation. More importantly, Colorado State’s secondary could get carved up by the Longhorns passing game, and the defense lost its top cornerback and pass rusher from last season. Offensively, Colorado State will be shuffling some pieces around an offensive line without a lot of talent or experience. Texas’ biggest question entering the season will be the defensive interior, which isn’t an area Colorado State will likely exploit, given their pass-heavy tendencies. The Rams were bottom-10 nationally in rush attempts last season. Plus, they play awfully fast, which leads to more possessions and a bad formula for covering this massive spread. If it gets down to 31, give me the Longhorns. There’s a chance Texas parks the bus after a strong first half, so I also don’t mind laying it in the first half.
Pick: Texas -32 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Miami vs. Florida
It's been a disappointing start for the Mario Cristobal era, as he is 12-13 in his first two seasons. The big move for the Hurricanes is getting Cam Ward from Washington State. He's come with an incredible arm and had 24 big-time throws last year, according to Pro Football Focus, along with a 65.5 completion percentage in two seasons at WSU. For Florida, Graham Mertz doesn't possess that same arm talent. Instead, he will manage the offense and find his opportunities while they establish the run game. Trevor Etienne is now at Georgia, so this could give Montrell Jordan more carries, but Treyuan Webb should see more opportunities. Florida struggled against the pass last year as they were 89th in passing yards per game and 123rd in passing yards per completion, and the Gator’s inability to go vertical would hinder him in what should be a bigger spread for Miami.
Pick: Miami -2.5 (-112)
-John Supowitz
UTEP vs. Nebraska
The Dylan Raiola era in Lincoln begins this weekend, as the Cornhuskers will look to make significant strides in coach Matt Rhule’s second season. Competent quarterback play and fewer turnover worthy plays will go a long way in elevating Nebraska’s stock this season, as costly turnovers have plagued this program the last few seasons. They’ll open the Raiola era against a UTEP team that is in rebuild mode after bringing in new head coach Scotty Walden from Austin Peay. The Miners return just nine starters last year, but Walden supplemented his roster with transfers from an Austin Peay team that won nine games last year. However, UTEP lost five key contributors in the secondary, which could have them exposed to Raiola and the Cornhuskers passing attack. Factor in that UTEP will also be replacing all five starters along the offensive line and their quarterback, and this has Nebraska written all over it as the Huskers look to make an opening statement.
Pick: Nebraska -27.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Western Kentucky vs. Alabama
Alabama’s biggest headline this offseason was when legendary head coach Nick Saban stepped away after a Rose Bowl loss to Michigan. The Crimson Tide had to settle for Kalen DeBoer, fresh off of a National Runner-Up with Washington. DeBoer has won everywhere he’s been, compiling a 104-12 record as a coach in both the NAIA and NCAA. For his first game, the Tide will get Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers had a solid year last season going 8-5 and return around national average as far as production. They do get an upgrade in Texas State transfer TJ Finley who is very familiar with Alabama from his days at Auburn. He had some success against the Crimson Tide and although he’ll be behind a less impressive offensive line, he should be able to help a passing offense that was 45th in EPA per play last year. I expect Alabama to win and score with some ease, but the Hilltoppers should be able to get their points too. I’ll be on the over to start the DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa.
Pick: Over 59.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
It's a new era for Texas A&M as they brought in former Duke head coach Mike Elko. He brings a defensive-minded attitude that allowed the Blue Devils to be 19th in points allowed last season. The offense should be good with Connor Weigman, who was playing well to start last season before he broke his foot in September. Elko will be familiar with the opposing quarterback because Riley Leonard was his quarterback at Duke. Leonard's season was also cut short due to an ankle issue in October. Notre Dame has had trouble offensively in the Marcus Freeman era, but certainly not the defense, as they posted another top-ten defense. Two good defenses with quarterbacks coming off injuries will keep this score low.
Pick: Under 46 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Fresno State vs. Michigan
The defending National Champions will take the field Saturday night looking different than when we last saw them in January. Offensively, the Wolverines lose their leading rusher, leading passer, and leading receiver, as well as six offensive linemen. There are a lot of unknowns for this team, but one thing we know is they’ll want to run the ball. The Bulldogs of Fresno State struggled to defend the run as they ranked 73rd in EPA per play against the run in 2023. On the other side of the ball, Michigan will have one of the best defenses in the country again and will look to stifle a Fresno offense that struggled against some of the better defenses they played last season. Last year, Michigan allowed just 16 or more points in three games, two of which were against premiere offenses in Ohio State and Alabama. The Michigan run game should be able to move the ball at will and propel the Wolverines to a Week 1 cover.
Pick: Under 46 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
UCLA vs. Hawaii
This is an intriguing matchup between a team that played (and looked bad) in Week 0 against a team making its debut this Saturday. The trends suggest Hawaii has the advantage, and they’ll also have the home-field advantage in their pocket. But the Rainbow Warriors looked rough in a rainy and windy game against Delaware State. Top receiver Steven McBride is now ineligible, which puts a dent into Hawaii’s offensive upside. That said, I don’t have much faith in new UCLA coach Deshaun Foster, but the Bruins should be able to run the ball against a Hawaii defense that allowed Delaware State to march up and down the field. A week ago, I would’ve recommended Hawaii in an upset. But after adjusting to what I saw in Week 0, I’ll probably just take the under.
Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
New Mexico vs. Arizona
New Mexico is a team in rebuild mode this season but still nearly upset Montana State (one of the better FCS teams in the country). Their passing game was decent, and the run game wasn't bad. But the competition level will be much higher this weekend vs. Arizona. The defense did not do a terrible job against the Bobcats’ offense, but it didn't do a good one either. The Wildcats offense, powered by Heisman-hopeful Noah Fifita at quarterback, will shred the Lobos defense. It will not matter how good the Arizona defense is because the offense will run up the score. But will the Wildcats cover the spread? Eh-don't know...
Pick: Over 58.5 (-108)
-Travis Pulver
North Dakota vs. Iowa State
It was a tough year in Ames for the Cyclones in 2023. They finished the year 7-6, including a disappointing loss to the Memphis Tigers in the Liberty Bowl. They come into 2024 with some reason to be excited. They return 85% of their production from last year which is good enough for second-best in the country. This will be most apparent on defense, where they were top 50 in EPA per play and top 50 in both run and pass plays. North Dakota is a team that made the FCS playoffs last year, falling in the first round against Sacramento State. The Cyclone defense should be able to slow down an FCS offense that excelled last year against FCS opponents but managed only 18 points in their lone FBS game against Boise State. The spread for Iowa State is appealing, but the under is my favorite play with a really strong Iowa State defense.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
UNLV vs. Houston
We don’t know who will start at quarterback for the Rebels on Saturday. The team has multiple quarterbacks in play for the role, and while each brings something unique to the table, we do like that no matter who gets the start, they won’t be completely inexperienced. Last season, the Rebels were involved in numerous shootouts, scoring more than 40 six times and allowing at least 40 on two other occasions. They’re going to score a lot against Houston. It just comes down to whether the Cougars can answer. While Donovan Smith is far from a great starting quarterback, we still believe he can lead the Cougars to at least 28 points in this game. If Houston scores that much, this game will go over.
Pick: Over 54.5 (-110)
-Phil Wood
Wyoming vs. Arizona State
It was a 2023 to forget for Arizona State. They compiled a 3-9 record with an atrocious defense that allowed 42.5 points per game in November, which included a 17-7 win over UCLA. They return the 35th most production from last year, but is that a good thing? The Sun Devils ranked 130th in offensive EPA per play and 94th in defensive EPA per play. In short, this was a bad team last year, and they should be a bad team again. The always upset-minded Wyoming Cowboys will travel to Tempe to take on the Sun Devils on Saturday. There has been some change in Wyoming, but they were a better team than Arizona State last year, and they should be again this year. I’ll be backing the underdogs from Wyoming.
Pick: Wyoming +7.5 (-115)
-Ryan Rodeman