College Football Week 1 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets (2023)

by Scott Bogman |
Aug 31, 2023

Iâ€™m back for another season of College Football picks for BettingPros!

Iâ€™m ready for my Longhorns to let me down again, but in the meantime, letâ€™s bet on some games and enjoy the upcoming season! The (real) opening week can be tough to navigate because we havenâ€™t seen these teams playing yet.

Still, there are always some lines I like, so hereâ€™s what I have for Week 1:

College Football Week 1 Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Colorado vs. #17 TCU

The first episode of the â€œBettingPros College Football Preview Showâ€ saw Thor Nystrom and Mike Farrell split on this one, and Iâ€™m going to go with Farrell here. Colorado will be much improved with Deion Sanders bringing in eight transfer starters on offense and nine on defense. Colorado was 127th in scoring offense and dead last (131st) in scoring defense last year. Yet, they added some very good transfers.

I know TCU has lost a lot on offense, with only three starters returning, but Sonny Dykes took this team to the National Championship last year in his first season, and he didnâ€™t even want Max Duggan to start at QB. The TCU defense also has seven returning starters who played at least 50% of the snaps last season.

I believe Colorado will be one of the most improved teams, but I think expecting them to do it against a playoff team on the road with so many new players is a bit much to ask. I anticipate some offensive struggles for TCU, but that doesnâ€™t mean theyâ€™ll be awful or unable to score. Give me TCU and the Under here!

Bet: TCU -20 (-110) + UNDER 64 (-110)

Coastal Carolina vs. UCLA

Iâ€™ll continue with my Under theme for Week 1 with a few great offenses. UCLA is getting a true freshman at QB in Dante Moore. He will be awesome, but this will be his first start.

Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina has a very good offense led by QB Grayson McCall and a questionable defense. However, they are also traveling across the country for this game.

With an inexperienced QB for UCLA and a challenging P5 defense for Coastal (seven returning starters for UCLA on defense), this game will be high-scoring but come up a little short of this total. Week 1 should see lower totals in general with the new clock rule, which industry standards are predicting about a 5% loss in scoring across the board. I feel this game finishes somewhere around 35-21 in UCLAâ€™s favor, which would align with the spread (UCLA -14.5) but come up short of the total.

Bet: UNDER 66.5 (-110)

Texas Tech -14 vs. Wyoming

This feels like a bit of a trap because Texas Tech is a way better team than Wyoming, in my opinion, but the home-field advantage in Laramie, Wyo., canâ€™t be understated. Wyoming has jumped on a lot of teams coming to play at the highest-elevation stadium in the country because they gas out and canâ€™t keep up.

However, this being the first game of the season, I think Tech should be in good enough shape to keep pace. The talent gap on offense is just too big for me to believe that this isnâ€™t a massive blowout. I wouldnâ€™t call Tech strong on defense, but they donâ€™t have to be because Wyoming is miserable on offense.

Andrew Peasley remains the starting QB for the Cowboys. With him at the helm last season, the Cowboys were 110th in scoring averaging, just over 21 PPG. If Tech scores a few TDs early, that will force Wyoming to abandon the run game they rely on and throw the ball, which could cause problems. Tyler Shough is healthy (for now), and the Tech offense is the best unit on the field by a wide margin. I think they win this one going away!

Bet: Texas Tech -14 (-110)

East Carolina vs. #2 Michigan

I keep questioning some of the totals because of the aforementioned rule change, but the discrepancy in talent in this game has me too intrigued. Jim Harbaugh is on the teamâ€™s self-imposed suspension, and the Wolverines will be coached by â€˜groupsâ€™ according to earlier reports, with DC Jesse Minter getting the nod in this one. While Iâ€™m not a big fan of musical chairs HCs, I think Michigan will be able to score on almost every drive they work on. Even if they trip up initially, East Carolina will have to play catchup at some point.

ECU has so much inexperience on the offensive side of the ball (three returning starters and one transfer played over 50% of snaps last season). Iâ€™m confident the Michigan defense will get turnovers, setting up shorter fields for the offense, or maybe even score themselves.

East Carolina pushed NC State to the brink in the opener last season, so maybe we see some early confidence on offense. Still, I expect Michigan to do the heavy lifting and potentially get all the points. In the first three weeks of last yearâ€™s season, Michigan put up at least 51, and every game cleared this total.

Bet: OVER 51.5 (-110)

Other Bets I Like:

Miami (OH) vs. Miami -16.5 (-110)
Louisiana Tech vs. SMU -20 (-110)
South Florida vs. Western Kentucky -12.5 (-110)
Sam Houston vs. BYU UNDER 47 (-110)
Stanford vs. Hawaii UNDER 57.5 (-110)

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