Top College Football Week 1 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 1. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
- More College Football Betting Advice
- Expert Game Picks for College Football
- Top Bettor Picks for College Football
- College Football Betting Strategy
College Football Week 1 Picks & Predictions
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
There is another Over here that looks reachable. VaTech returns 9 of 11 starters who hit their stride in the 2023 season’s last four games, averaging 43 PPG. Vandy added the CUSA OPOY award winner QB Deigo Pavia to help improve their offense, which ranked 103rd last season in scoring. Vandy's brutal SEC schedule keeps their scoring down, but in their last six games against non-SEC P4 opponents, they averaged 24.5 PPG and never lower than 17 points. Vandy also lost all of those games and averaged 38.5 PPG allowed. Continuity for Va Tech and improvements to the Vandy offense should help get to this over with ease.
Pick: OVER 48
UTEP vs. Nebraska
The edge is significant to the side of Nebraska and the under for this one, as it should play as a Nebraska blowout. UTEP goes into the season with a new HC, Scotty Walden, from Austin Peay (who improved every season under him) and will get an almost-total roster rebuild with only four returning starters. Nebraska also will be under new HC Matt Rhule, starting the 5-star Freshman QB Dylan Raiola to start the season. A massive difference in strength between the Nebraska defense and UTEP offense, coupled with a simple playbook to ease Raiola into the role, is the narrative that takes this to the Under.
Pick: UNDER 49
UCLA vs. Hawai’i
UCLA is going to win this game going away likely, but the value here is on the Under. UCLA is replacing a lot on defense, and while they may not be the same team that held teams under 20 PPG on average (14th last season – 18.3 PPG), they should have enough strength to hold Hawai'i to a low total. UCLA also has issues on offense at QB and has only five starters coming back to a new HC, Deshaun Foster. This total will depend on UCLA's offense, the points are there for the taking but it's doubtful that we'll see OC Eric Bienemy open it up with a P4 opponent in Indiana coming after their Week 2 bye.
Pick: UNDER 54
Southern Miss vs. Kentucky
Kentucky is another team that played to the Over nine times in 2023, and Southern Miss was 128th in PPG Allowed last season. Kentucky is replacing big pieces on offense but returns five starters, two All-SEC players, and 9 of 11 defensive starters. Southern Miss has been dominated by P4 teams under HC Will Hall, giving up an average of 50 PPG. Kentucky will do the heavy lifting here and Southern Miss may not have to do much at all.
Pick: OVER 50
LSU vs. USC (Sunday)
The USC defense is undergoing an overhaul with the defense that ranked 121st last season in PPG. USC has brought in D'Anton Lynn from UCLA and has added six transfer starters, including 4/5 of the secondary. LSU has also made a change at DC, hiring Blake Baker after he helped revive the Missouri defense the last two years. LSU ranked t-81st in PPG Allowed at 28; they were also 87th against the run and 118th against the Pass. LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense with four returning starters on an OL that ranks second in the nation. Both of these new QBs were able to start their team’s Bowl games last year and put up impressive numbers. Without an immediate upgrade in defensive performance, this Over is attainable.
Pick: OVER 64
Other Week 1 College Football Games
I’ll break down a few other games on the Week 1 College Football slate below. I don’t have official picks for either game.
New Mexico vs. Arizona
Not only is Arizona a massive favorite in this game, but they also got a look at New Mexico under new HC Bronco Mendenhall. Montana State put up 35 points and 567 yards against New Mexico in their opener. Arizona will adjust to a new HC in Brent Brennan and a new play-caller in OC Dino Babers. This line has already spiked 3 points since New Mexico's first game and could easily climb this week.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
These defenses are both highly ranked and very good, but this total gives no respect to the offenses of each team. Notre Dame replaces Sam Hartman with stud Duke transfer Riley Leonard. Leonard was coached the last two seasons by new TAMU HC Mike Elko. Elko and play caller OC Collin Klein inherit an offense led by NFL QB Prospect Conner Wiegman. The Irish played to the Over 9 times in 13 games last season, and 3 of 4 Unders, they held their opponents to under 17 points, which seems doubtful against TAMU at home.
Miami (FL) vs. Florida
The projection pushes this game over, likely due to major improvements from transfers for the Miami offense. QB Cam Ward (Washington State), RB Damien Martinez (Oregon State), and WR Samuel Brown give Miami a lot of experience and dropped in with six other returning starts. They are poised to be VERY formidable this season. Florida will probably lean a little on QB Graham Mertz to attack Miami's least experienced unit in the secondary. Miami only returns four starters on defense, and while Florida returns six starters on defense, their group was below average last year, ranking 78th in PPG Allowed.
Clemson vs. Georgia
Our projections show a significant favor towards the Over, and with the Georgia offense returning 4/5 of the OL, one of the best QBs in the country, and some great skill position transfers (RB Trevor Etienne, Florida, and WR Colbie Young, Miami). Clemson returns 6/11 starters on offense, including QB Cade Klubnik. Some will remember Clemson’s disaster in the opener against Duke last season. Clemson had over 400 yards of offense in that game, but they turned the ball over three times and failed to convert on 4th down twice.
North Carolina vs. Minnesota (Thursday)
The media is excited that Max Brosmer is transferring to Minnesota to give them a QB that they haven't had under PJ Fleck. Brosmer was the runner-up for the 'FCS Heisman' (Walter Payton Award), and Minnesota is a home favorite. North Carolina is replacing a lot, including starting QB Drake Maye. The NC offense will likely run through the All-ACC RB Omarion Hampton as transfer QB Max Johnson gets settled under center. This projection favors the Over, and it makes sense that Minnesota is improving on offense and NC is bringing in an experienced quarterback with a lot of starts and over 750 pass attempts.
Pick: UNC -2
Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State (Thursday)
There's a decent amount of value on the Under here. Jacksonville State had the 3rd best rushing offense last season but not a lot is returning from that group. They will have a new QB, RB and 2 new OL. Coastal Carolina will also rely on hulking RB Braydon Bennett and QB Ethan Vasko, who was also a solid runner last season. Both defenses are subpar but with both teams running the clock should churn, both teams play at a decent pace but also combined to go 16/26 games going to the Under last season.
Pick: UNDER 54.5