College Football Week 10 Early Lines: Odds & Predictions (2024)
Week 10 of the 2024 college football season is set to deliver one of the biggest games we’ve seen thus far between No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 4 Ohio State in State College, Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon.
Week 9 didn’t have nearly as many upsets as we’ve been accustomed to watching in recent weeks, as Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Texas, Notre Dame, BYU, and Texas A&M all won outright as top-10 ranked programs. Not all of these wins were dominant, as the Buckeyes barely held on to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home, while Texas allowed Vanderbilt to hang around, and Penn State recorded a pick-six halfway through the third quarter to regain the lead and flip momentum over Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, after going 3-0 in Week 8, Week 9 was the polar opposite, as my three picks went 0-3. Kyle McCord threw five interceptions in a lopsided road loss to Pitt, failing to get Syracuse to cover +5.5, Notre Dame nearly hit the point total over on their own, ruining under 52.5 total points against Navy, and LSU’s moneyline odds looked good in the first half before the Aggies made a switch at quarterback to take over the game and win by a double-digit margin.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 10
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| Ohio State | Penn State | +4 | +4 | 47.5 | 47 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Indiana | Michigan State | +7 | +7.5 | 50.5 | 51 | -0.5 | +0.5 |
| Texas A&M | South Carolina | +4 | +2.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
Ohio State (4) vs. Penn State (3)
Ohio State and Penn State are fierce rivals but the Buckeyes have won five consecutive games head-to-head with head coach Ryan Day against Penn State’s head coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are undefeated and had to rally in the second half on the road against USC and Wisconsin to preserve their perfect record.
Ohio State lost at Oregon and nearly blew a late lead to Nebraska, so the Buckeyes aren’t in great form at the moment. The point total under is the best market to target in this Big Ten matchup, as these teams have combined to cash eight unders in 2024, including in three of the last four games both teams have played.
The total has already moved down half a point to an even 47, implying we may see a final score of 24-21 or 27-20, which feels right. Let’s stake a unit on under 47 total points before it shortens any more, especially with how stout each team’s defense is playing. Penn State may be without QB1 Drew Allar, who is listed as a game-time decision with a knee injury, further building the case for under 47 total points.
Best Bet: Under 47 (-110)
Indiana (13) vs. Michigan State
Indiana got the job done against Washington in Week 9 at home without their prolific QB1, Kurtis Rourke. Rourke is currently trending up and may wind up playing on the road against Michigan State on Saturday.
If Rourke plays, expect the line to move fro -7.5 to -9.5 or -10.5, so we need to jump on this number quickly. Indiana’s backup QB Tayven Jackson played good enough against the Huskies to win 31-17, covering the point spread yet again for the Hoosiers. Jackson added a rushing touchdown, while throwing for 11-19 124 and a touchdown, along with an interception.
Michigan State’s big 32-20 win over Iowa in Week 8 was followed by a tough road loss to Michigan in Week 9, blowing a first-half lead to their in-state rivals. The Spartans are one of the most turnover-prone offenses in the FBS, so facing an Indiana defense that forces 1.9 turnovers per game, 29th in the country, it’s easy to back Indiana to cover -7.5 on the road at Michigan State, even without Rourke.
However, it’s an added bonus if we get -7.5 and Rourke winds up playing, so let’s back Indiana to improve to 8-1 ATS in only their third road game under head coach Curt Cignetti.
Best Bet: Indiana -7.5 (-115)
Texas A&M (10) vs. South Carolina
Texas A&M will likely stay with QB Marcel Reed, who gave the Aggies’ offense a huge jolt to erase a half-time deficit against LSU in Week 9. Reed filled in for QB Connor Weigman due to injury, winning games, but was then replaced when Weigman returned healthy. Weigman’s struggles led to Reed back under center against LSU, with Reed recording nine carries for 62 yards and three touchdowns.
South Carolina won’t be phased much though, as the Gamecocks are seventh in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (2.8) and just routed Oklahoma 35-9 on the road. In Week 8, South Carolina had a few opportunities to beat Alabama at home, and now, they get another chance to beat a top-ranked SEC opponent at home in Week 10.
The Aggies’ dominant run game will be challenged and met with plenty of resistance. The Gamecocks offense has been inconsistent, but played turnover-free in Week 9 against a good Sooners defense. If South Carolina can replicate that effort and contain Reed and Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss, expect the Gamecocks to cover +2.5 as home underdogs.
We’ll close out with another unit on South Carolina +2.5, as it’s already dropped from +4 to +2.5 following their momentous road win over Oklahoma in Week 9.
Best Bet: South Carolina +2.5 (-108)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.