College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets
It is becoming more challenging to uncover potential long-shot winners or at least ones for whom we can make a believable argument in favor. We’ve seen enough to have a good idea of what teams are made of, so when we see a relatively long point spread, well-there’s a reason.
However, we have identified a few games where the underdog is a long shot but has a reasonable chance of winning.
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College Football Week 10 Long Shots
(Odds Courtesy Of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. Arkansas (+202)
As long as Lane Kiffin is the head coach for Ole Miss, fans will expect to see an explosive, prolific offense every time it steps foot on the field. During the non-conference part of the schedule, it was just that, but once conference play began, not so much.
The passing game has still generated good numbers, but the run game has stalled. They have yet to score 28+ points in a game after averaging 50+ in the first four games of the season, and they have yet to win consecutive conference games.
On paper, it looks like Ole Miss will snuff out the Razorbacks’ rushing attack before it has a chance to get rolling. But you have to consider how inflated the stats for Ole Miss are since their non-conference schedule was so easy.
Arkansas will move the ball just fine against the Rebels in the passing game and the run. Lane Kiffin will make this one interesting. But the spread should have been flipped.
Pick: Arkansas +202
Vanderbilt (+195) vs. Auburn (-6.5)
On paper, this makes sense. Vanderbilt has not been incredibly productive on offense (No. 97 in total yards, 351.5 yards per game). The defense is not bad; you can call it ‘good’ but certainly not great. Auburn isn’t a great team either, but they are good on both sides of the ball.
It won’t be a blowout, but the Tigers should win this one by a touchdown. But that’s what the stat sheets tell us. Reality tells a different tale.
This is not your typical Vanderbilt team. The Commodores are a winning team this year (5-3; Auburn is 3-5), and they just gave Texas all it could handle. Okay-so Auburn is coming off a game vs. Kentucky, where they ran for 328 yards and gained 500 overall. But they didn’t do much with all of that offense, scoring just 24 points.
So, Vanderbilt is not a stat machine, and we can’t help but think of the Commodores as that SEC cellar dweller the rest of the league loves to beat. But this Vanderbilt team is good. Quarterback Diego Pavia is a playmaker. So, Auburn beat Kentucky; that isn’t a unique accomplishment.
Pick: Vanderbilt +195
Pittsburgh (+220) vs. SMU (-7.5)
This is a unique game in that the No. 20 SMU Mustangs (7-1) are significant favorites against an undefeated Pitt team. Okay, so the Mustangs have a solid offense; they are good at running the ball and have a solid passing game. As for their defense, teams have struggled to run the ball on them (No. 5 against the run).
But is that because they are that good, or because everyone is too busy throwing on them (No. 98 against the pass)?
Pitt is built in a similar fashion. They are not great at anything on offense, but the unit is good overall. While they appear tough against the run (No. 9), is it because they are or because teams are too busy throwing on them?
This one appears to be a fairly close game, with the winner being whoever can get a play or two from their defense. Could Pitt win? Of course, but with the No. 6 scoring offense in the country, they will not lose by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Pitt +7.5
The moneyline is not a bad play, but taking the points is a better one.