Top 5 College Football Week 10 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 10. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 10 Picks & Predictions
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
We are showing value toward the Under here. Ole Miss still hasn't had a bad game on defense. Ole Miss held LSU to 23 points in regulation and 29 points after OT in the loss, but no other opponent scored more than 17 points against them. Ole Miss has not played their best on offense recently, averaging just 26.5 points over their last four games. Arkansas is fresh off putting up 673 yards and 58 points against Miss State, but in their four previous SEC games, the Razorbacks have averaged just 17.5 points and 356 total yards. Arkansas Ja'Quinden Jackson will miss this game with an ankle injury, and Ole Miss WR Tre Harris remains questionable (he didn't play last week). The most significant factor could be the weather, as the report calls for rain and increasing wind as the game goes on. Ole Miss has a high-paced offense, but they haven't pushed past 27 points in their last four games and only once against an FBS opponent (Wake Forest 40-6). Ole Miss’s offense inconsistency, paired with the consistency of their defense make the Under the play in this game.
Pick: UNDER 53.5
Indiana vs. Michigan State
Michigan State is improving. They beat Iowa (32-20 W) and held tough with Michigan last week (24-17 L). The Spartans controlled the clock for over 37 minutes in both of those games and slowed down the clock. However, Michigan and Iowa aren't, don't possess the 2nd highest scoring offense which is Top 10 in PPG Margin, EPA Margin and Offensive Success Rate. QB Kurtis Rourke is also expected to return after a one-game absence. The Defense might be the better side of the ball recently for the Hoosiers, only 7 points allowed to Nebraska and 17 to Washington in the last two weeks with both teams just over 300 yards. Michigan State is 117th in scoring offense, playing at one of the slowest paces (126th) and really rely on the time of possession. Indiana is way more efficient, get their QB back and are stronger than Michigan State in Roster Strength and Team Performance. This number is likely to move with the Kurtis Rourke news but we are showing a lot of value on it.
Pick: Indiana -7.5
Nebraska vs. UCLA
UCLA finally broke out and scored 35 points in their 2nd win of the season against Rutgers last week. UCLA won that game with some big plays (49, 22 and 67 yards TDs), converting 3rd downs (7-13) and passing the ball (383 yards). Unfortunately for the Bruins, Nebraska is t-7th in 20+ Yard Plays from Scrimmage, allow less than 35% 3rd Down Conversions and are better against the pass than the run. UCLA is a hard team to gauge as they have played the #1 Strength of Schedule this season with losses to Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Penn State. The Bruins also narrowly beat Hawaii and lost to Minnesota at home so skepticism remains after a nice Win against Rutgers. UCLA has had offensive problems against this schedule, averaging only 17.4 PPG (127th), 302.1 Total Yards (125th) and are 114th in Offensive Performance Nebraska gets to come back home after a tough loss to Ohio State where they held the Buckeyes to 21 points, 285 yards and 11 1st downs (all season lows for Ohio State). The offense for Nebraska has been awful the last two weeks but going from two Top-10 Scoring Defenses to playing the 100th Scoring Defense in UCLA, at home should give them a significant bump in production. UCLA might be finding something on offense but Nebraska will be able to put up points and with the defense playing with confidence after nearly upsetting Ohio State laying the points for anything under 9.5 for the Huskers is showing an advantage.
Pick: Nebraska -6
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
The Texas Tech defense has been rough this season, giving up 36 points on average (123rd) and 465.9 YPG (127th). The Red Raiders have given up 35+ in 4 games this season and 3 of their last 4. Iowa State has chewed up some below-average defenses in their last 3 games, averaging 36.3 PPG against Baylor, WVU, and UCF (all better scoring defenses than Texas Tech). Iowa State has played strong on defense but against very suspect passing offenses. Iowa, Houston and UCF rank below 100 in Passing Yards Per Game, WVU is 91st and only Baylor (61st) and Arkansas State (50th) are above average and they aren't much more than that. Texas Tech is strong on offense, Top 20 in Scoring offense, Total Offense and Passing Offense. Texas Tech has scored 30 or more points in 6 of 8 games this season and Iowa State is coming off their worst defensive performance, allowing 35 points and 416 yards in only 22:32 of possession against UCF. Wind is in the forecast, but it is under the threshold to threaten the Total, the Over is showing a strong advantage, even if it opens a bit.
Pick: OVER 56.5
Navy vs. Rice
Navy is the only team in the Country that has hit the Over in every single game they have played this season. Navy was thumped by Notre Dame last week but they were undefeated going into that game and averaged 44 PPG in those games. Rice just fired their Head Coach Mike Bloomgren, likely because the offense has been abysmal this season, averaging just 21.5 PPG (109th), 329 YPG (113th) and are 121st in offensive performance. Rice is playing strong on defense this season but their strength is against the pass and Navy runs the ball at a 73.4% clip through their option offense. 37 points is the most that Rice has given up this season and that was to Army that runs a similar offense and runs the ball even more at 86%. Navy is likely to do the heavy lifting against his defense because although Rice has overperformed, Navy is still Top-5 in Yards Per Play, Points Per Drive, Offensive Success Rate, EPA Per Play and EPA Margin. The 'dead-cat bounce' could happen under interim HC Pete Alamar but it is likely to improve the offense with the defense already playing better than expected. Navy will do the heavy lifting and a new approach on offense should help Rice and this game reach the Over.
Pick: OVER 50.5