College Football Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Auburn vs. Mississippi State (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 10 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Auburn vs. Mississippi State.
- Tennessee vs. Georgia
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
- Air Force vs. Army
- Ohio State vs. Northwestern
- Florida vs. Texas A&M
- Alabama vs. LSU
- Clemson vs. Notre Dame
- California vs. USC
- Penn State vs. Indiana
- Arizona vs. Utah
- Illinois vs. Michigan State
- UTSA vs. UAB
- James Madison vs. Louisville
- Maryland vs. Wisconsin
- Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte
- UNLV vs. San Diego State
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Auburn (+13) at Mississippi State
As with last week's Charlotte +17 against Rice pick, you have free reign to pass on this one if you like. But I'm going to present the case.
As you're aware, Auburn fired HC Bryan Harsin on Monday. Harsin's tenure ended with a four-game losing streak. Auburn opened with victories over Mercer and San Jose State, but the Tigers have gone 1-5 since (the only win was by a FG over Missouri in OT).
But the Tigers match up well, here. And data suggests that firing an HC is not a bad thing for week-after performance, nor rest-of-season performance. Below are updated "dead-cat bounce" standings for Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Colorado and Charlotte.
•Before firing HC: 6-22 ATS
•Week after firing HC: 4-2 ATS with three outright upsets as +14.5-or-more 'dogs
Overall since firing HC: 12-9 ATS
Auburn's best thing as a team, by far, is its pass defense (No. 36 success rate, No. 40 against explosion). It's Auburn's run defense that has dragged the unit down this year. That won't matter in this matchup against MSU's Air Raid.
Additionally, Mississippi State hasn't looked as good recently. The Bulldogs started 5-1 but have since lost two-straight. If Mississippi State overlooks Auburn, they're gonna get put on upset alert real quick.
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