College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets

by Scott Bogman |
Nov 09, 2023

The 5-5 trend continues. Florida State was without Keon Coleman but I'm not sure that would have helped and the offense went to bed before the start of the Stanford-Washington State game. This week I'm in on James Madison impressing, a shootout after dark, and a covering trend! Time to break the cycle!

College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Week 10 Record: 5-5 | 2023 Record: 50-50 | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

James Madison vs Connecticut OVER 48 (-108)

UConn is ROUGH on defense so far this season ranking 111th against the pass, and 112th against the run which adds up to 117th in Points Allowed Per Game. UConn ranks 99th in overall PFF grade and it's all bad this season for the Huskies. JMU is top 25 in Time of Possession, UConn is 126th in 3rd down conversions allowed and they have allowed 30+ points in 5/9 games so far. The only positive stat for the Huskies defense is that they have been decent in the red zone but James Madison is t-24th in plays over 40 yards this season and can score from anywhere on the field.

James Madison is running downhill on offense right now which is the biggest reason I like this Over. They put up 500+ yards and held the ball for over 40 minutes against Georgia State last week, put up over 450 yards of offense against Old Dominion two weeks ago, 400+ against a good defense in Marshall, and scored 41 against Georgia Southern four weeks ago. Marshall and Troy have been the only teams to hold the Dukes below 30 points and if we take those weeks out JMU is averaging over 37 PPG.

I think we get 40+ from JMU and shouldn't have to rely too much on the Huskies scoring to sail way past this Total!

#6 Oregon -15 (-110) vs USC and OVER 73.5 (-112)

The one guarantee that we have in this game is that Oregon is going to score. The Trojansâ€™ defense has been abysmal this season culminating in the firing of DC Alex Grinch (finally) and while we might see a better effort I doubt the execution takes an immediate about-face.

USC has allowed 40+ points to 5 of their last 6 opponents and Oregon is either the best or 2nd best offense (Washington last week) that they will have faced this season. The Trojans are 124th in points allowed, and Oregon is 1st in scoring offense. This is easy to figure out, Bo Nix and the Oregon offense will put up a lot of points on the soft USC defense.

The question to me is how much will USC put up against the Oregon defense. USC is right behind Oregon for 2nd in the country in PPG (45.5) and has scored against some tough Defenses. Notre Dame has been the only team to hold USC to fewer than 34 points. The Trojans also put up 32 on Utah and the only team to score more on Utah is Oregon who posted 35 on them. The 42 points they scored on Washington in the loss last week were the most points the Huskies have allowed this year.

Oregon has a great defense that has held everyone except Washington on their schedule to under 25 points but I don't know if even they can slow down USC. I expect this to be a classic Pac-12 after-dark shootout in the neighborhood of 49-30 in favor of the Ducks.

North Texas +16.5 (-110) @ SMU

The Mean Green aren't an exciting team as they sit 3-6 but they have covered the spread in 6 of their 9 games so far and SMU is dealing with a possible backup QB.

North Texas has covered the spread in five straight games and they have done it with a great passing offense. The UNT passing game is their strength with QB Chandler Rogers sitting in the top 20 in passing yards and a 21/3 TD/INT rate. WR Jay Maclin is tied for tops in the nation in receiving touches and they balance the passing with a rushing attack that is t-36th in the country (180 YPG).

For all the offensive accolades the Mean Green offense has the defense is the polar opposite. Currently, UNT is dead last in rushing yards allowed, 129th in points allowed, and is above average against the pass at 47th. I feel it's likely the pass defense looking good statistically is probably because everyone knows they can run on UNT.

Despite the defensive challenges for UNT they have still been able to stay in their games recently and as mentioned before SMU starting QB Preston Stone is in concussion protocol. If Preston Stone is not able to go I would assume the run game might take a step up but this is a pass-heavy offense.

Overall the Mustangs are probably still just better than UNT but the way the Mean Green have stayed in games and beat spreads recently gives me confidence in them. This game being on Friday night doesn't help for the odds of Preston Stone passing protocol. I think the Mean Green can keep it within 17 points even if Preston Stone plays so I'm going to take the points like the public is!

Other Bets I Like:

Memphis -9.5 @ Charlotte (-110)
UCF +2.5 vs #15 Oklahoma State (-110)
Troy -21.5 vs ULM (-110)
#24 North Carolina -14 vs Duke (-110)
#14 Tennessee @ #16 Missouri OVER 58.5 (-110)
Arizona @ Colorado OVER 55 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Navigate

College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Bogman’s Best Bets