College Football Week 11 Early Lines: Odds & Predictions (2024)
We’re onto Week 11 of the 2024 college football season and entering the home stretch for teams’ regular season schedules. Several top-ten-ranked programs lost in Week 10, while No. 1 Oregon, No. 4 Miami, and No. 8 Indiana collectively extended their undefeated record with statement wins.
Previously undefeated, Penn State’s only touchdown came on an early interception return against Ohio State, which saw the Buckeyes rally down 10-0 to wind up winning 20-13 after making a crucial goal-line stand in the fourth quarter. Iowa State and Pitt wound up losing their first game in 2024, dropping them in the AP polls, while Texas A&M and Clemson both suffered their second loss, losing badly to South Carolina and Louisville respectively.
My Week 10 Early Lines: Odds, and Predictions bets went 3-0, bouncing back from 0-3 in Week 9, so let’s try to keep the heater intact as we head into Week 11. I’ve got three new bets, each worth a one-unit wager, so let’s jump right into assessing early line movement to figure out which market holds the most value to pursue.
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College Football Early Line Movement: Week 11
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| Away | Home | Open Spread | Current Spread | Open Total | Current Total | Spread +/- | Total +/- |
| Florida | Texas | -21 | -21.5 | 48 | 48 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Georgia | Ole Miss | +5 | +2.5 | 54.5 | 55 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Alabama | LSU | +1.5 | +3 | 58.5 | 58.5 | +1.5 | 0 |
Florida vs. Texas (5)
Despite a two-touchdown loss against Georgia after holding three separate leads in the first-half, then tying the Bulldogs 20-20 in the fourth quarter, before surrendering a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes, Florida has improved quite a bit since earlier in the season.
Texas is coming off of a bye week and didn’t look great against Vanderbilt in Week 9, winning 27-24 on the road. QB Quinn Ewers has been a bit turnover-prone lately and the Gators are good at forcing interceptions, recording six in their last two games against Kentucky and Georgia. +21.5 is too big of a number to fade, especially with Florida’s run-centric offense churning out possessions and eating clock.
Yes, Texas’ run defense is one of the best units in the country, but Florida’s defense will wreak havoc at times for Ewers and the Longhorns, especially with shaky outings against Georgia and Vanderbilt in their last two games played. We’re staking a unit on Florida to cover +21.5 on the road in Austin on Saturday afternoon.
Best Bet: Florida +21.5 (-110)
Georgia (2) vs. Ole Miss (16)
No. 2 Georgia heads to Oxford to take on No. 16 Ole Miss during Saturday’s late afternoon window. Carson Beck has overcome early turnovers in numerous games this season but he benefits from Georgia’s defense lining up on the other side.
The Rebels lost a heartbreaker in overtime at LSU a few weeks ago but have responded with a 26-14 win over Oklahoma and a 63-31 rout of Arkansas on the road in Week 10. Ole Miss has an issue with its pass defense though, allowing LSU and Arkansas to both throw for over 335 yards. The secondary hasn’t recorded an interception in two consecutive games and while the run defense is only allowing 3.5 YPC or less in conference play, Georgia’s offensive line is difficult to penetrate.
Let’s not overthink this game, despite the line moving in favor of Ole Miss following their blowout win over Arkansas. Georgia struggled early against a good Florida defense before pulling away late and this may be a similar outcome on the road in Oxford in Week 11. Let’s stake a unit on Beck and the Bulldogs to win their fifth consecutive game against an inconsistent Ole Miss program.
Best Bet: Georgia Moneyline (-135)
Alabama (11) vs. LSU (14)
We’re heading to Tiger Stadium and staying in the SEC for what should be an electric showdown between Alabama and LSU. Both teams have disappointed thus far in 2024 but LSU is undoubtedly more eager to play this game after blowing a half-time lead to Texas A&M in Week 9 and sitting on that loss during a bye in Week 10.
Alabama bounced back from a 24-17 road loss at Tennessee with a 34-0 shutout win over Missouri in Week 9, but the Crimson Tide also had a bye week, albeit with more productive film to assess compared to the Tigers.
We’re looking for points in this game and there should be an abundance of touchdowns scored under the lights on Saturday night. LSU’s run defense regressed badly against Marcel Reed and the Aggies, so expect Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide backfield to generate production with ease on the ground. On the other side, LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has a big arm and could easily pick apart an Alabama defense allowing 240 or more passing yards and two to three touchdowns against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.
58.5 feels too low, this line should be priced higher, so let’s stake one final unit on LSU and Alabama to trade touchdowns in a track-meet type of game script, cashing over 58.5 total points at -108 odds.
Best Bet: Over 58.5 (-108)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.