Navigate

College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

by |

Week 11 is upon us. We’re getting closer and closer to discovering the College Football Playoff matchups, and there are plenty of intriguing matchups along the way.

However, not every game has stakes for the College Football Playoff. Often these are the games that provide opportunities for big-time upsets.

Here are my favorite spots for longshot upsets in Week 11:

Best College Football Week 11 Long Shot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+500) at Clemson Tigers (-14.5)

Clemson is coming off a massive win over Notre Dame last Saturday. The offense looked great, and they dominated from start to finish. This week, they’ll host Georgia Tech, who has been a tough team to pin down.

The Yellow Jackets have compiled a 5-4 record with some huge wins over Miami and North Carolina, but also some head-scratching losses against teams like Bowling Green and Boston College. The Georgia Tech offense, led by Haynes King has been really strong. He’s put together 7.97 yards per completion and the passing offense is 34th in EPA. In addition, they have one of the most balanced offenses, as they rank 36th in run offense EPA. With great ability to be explosive, they can be a handful for this Clemson team.

Offensively, Clemson has struggled all year. This was no exception last week. Although the final score showed Clemson’s domination, Notre Dame outgained them both in the air and on the ground. The box score indicates the result was a bit of fool’s gold, which lines up with a Clemson offense that is only 84th in the nation in EPA.

Clemson still hasn’t fixed their offensive woes. This doesn’t matter Against most of the ACC competition, but things could get dicey against a solid, explosive offense like Georgia Tech. Not only is Clemson laying too many points, but Georgia Tech has a very good chance of winning this game outright.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (+360) at South Alabama Jaguars (-10)

Don’t fix what isn’t broken. Last week, we backed the Red Wolves in a Sun Belt matchup with Louisiana. They pulled through in a 37-17 drubbing that saw them outgain the Ragin’ Cajuns by nearly 100 yards. They ran all over Louisiana to the tune of 232 yards.

South Alabama will provide a much more difficult task. The Jaguars rank 57th defensively in SP+. They’ve done a great job shutting down some of the worst offenses in the Sun Belt, but teams like Central Michigan, Troy and Louisiana have had success moving the ball against them. For an offense like Arkansas State that has greatly improved, led by QB Jaylen Raynor, that could be a welcomed sight. Raynor has managed an average depth of target that leads the nation, and that ability for big plays could be the key to beating South Alabama.

Advanced stats haven’t really caught up with this Arkansas State team. They’ve been playing much better since Raynor took over at quarterback. Now, just one win away from being bowl-eligible, the Red Wolves have a lot to play for going forward. I don’t think they’ll have to wait much longer than Saturday to capture that sixth win.

West Virginia Mountaineers (+430) at Oklahoma Sooners (-12.5)

Two weeks ago, the Oklahoma Sooners were sitting near the top of the football world, in the driver’s seat for a chance at the College Football Playoff. Fast forward two weeks, and they’re on the outside looking in for the Big 12 Championship. One big reason for this drop-off is the Sooners’ defense. Although they rank 29th in SP+, they’ve given up 461.8 yards per game over their last four. All four were games they trailed in the fourth quarter.

Next on the schedule is a red-hot West Virginia team. The Mountaineers have had one of the most explosive running games over their last three contests. They’ve racked up 848 yards for 5.97 yards per carry. They should have no difficulty moving the ball against this gassed Oklahoma defense.

It’s no surprise to see shootouts in the Big 12, and this game should be nothing different. Oklahoma’s defense has shown an ability to keep any opponent in games. West Virginia is a good offense, ranked 49th in SP+ offense, and should be able to go blow for blow with the Sooners. Sometimes, when it rains, it pours, and West Virginia has a great chance to keep the rain pouring on Oklahoma’s parade.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App