College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
We’ve come to the final stretch of the college football regular season. Nearly every FBS team is in action, but there are varying levels of motivation. Some contenders took big losses in Week 10, and perennial contenders likely no longer control their destiny for the College Football Playoff.
Typically, I focus on games that are more under the radar. However, I will highlight some higher-profile games this week to find longshot winners.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>
Alabama at Mississippi +11.5
It’s probably time that we’ve come to the realization that this Alabama team isn’t up to the same level as others in Nick Saban’s tenure. After losses to Tennessee and LSU, they no longer control their own destiny in the SEC West and have all but certainly been eliminated from the College Football Playoff.
One reason the Crimson Tide find themselves in this situation is that they’ve struggled on the road this season. Coming into the game against Ole Miss, they’re 1-3 ATS on the road this season and nearly 1-3 SU if not for some late-game heroics in Austin. They’ve allowed 180+ yards on the ground in all three SEC road games. A matchup with a strong Mississippi run game could keep this trend alive.
The Ole Miss offense has been excellent on the season, ranking 19th in SP+. They’ve rode a strong ground game to an 8-1 start on the season and will look to keep this up against the Alabama defense. The Rebels rank 10th in run EPA, and even against a strong defensive adversary, they should be able to put up points given Alabama’s road woes.
Questioning motivation in this spot is valid. Mississippi will be motivated as they still have a shot at the SEC West title if LSU slips up. However, Alabama has much less to play for, and we haven’t seen an Alabama team in this situation in quite some time. Given that Alabama is coming off of an emotional loss and Ole Miss is coming off of a bye, I like the Rebels in this game.
Pick: Ole Miss ML (+370)
Louisville +7 at Clemson
After flirting with disaster a few times this season, Clemson fell from the undefeated ranks in Week 10. They’ll take on a surging Louisville squad in Week 11.
Clemson has played so many tight games this year because the vaunted defense they typically field just hasn’t been the same this year. Competent offenses like Wake Forest, Florida State and Notre Dame were able to move the ball well against the Tigers.
After some rough games early on, the Louisville offense has found its rhythm, scoring 39.7 points per game in their last seven contests. Led by a running game that is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, they’ll look to exploit that Clemson defense that just gave up 263 yards on the ground in the loss to Notre Dame.
The Louisville defensive side is actually the matchup that intrigues me the most here. Louisville ranks 22nd in EPA defense and has rode it to a four-game win streak, including holding Wake Forest’s high-powered offense to a season-low 21 points.
With the issues on the Clemson offense and the unclear direction of the quarterback situation, the Louisville defense could give them fits. After a punch in the mouth last week, we’ll see how Clemson responds, but this is not as favorable of a matchup as the Vegas lines are making it seem. Louisville is plenty capable of not only hanging around, like many ACC foes have with Clemson, and I like them to pull off the big road upset.
Pick: Louisville ML (+240)
South Carolina +7.5 at Florida
The Gamecocks travel to Gainesville to take on the Gators in this SEC East tilt. Florida has been up and down all season, riding the play of QB Anthony Richardson. In some games, he’s looked unstoppable, but in other games, he’s looked much more pedestrian. This matchup may trend toward the latter.
South Carolina is led by a defense that ranks 37th in SP+. After early struggles against Georgia and Arkansas, they’ve found something, holding five straight opponents under 24 points before giving up a garbage time touchdown against Vanderbilt in Week 10. The unit can contain the Florida offense. If they can hold them, it’ll help negate their own weakness, the offense.
This Florida team has allowed almost every opponent to score on them at will. South Carolina has struggled on offense at times this season, but against this Gator defensive unit, they are more than capable of moving the ball.
This may not be the prettiest game on the Saturday slate, but it’s a ripe opportunity for a longshot winner. Florida is a team you can’t trust weekly, making them a candidate to be on upset alert.
Pick: South Carolina ML (+250)
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