College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: South Florida vs. SMU (2022)

Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 11 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game South Florida vs. SMU.

And check out the rest of our Week 11 college football game previews and picks:

• East Carolina vs. Cincinnati
• Colorado vs. USC
• Kansas State vs. Baylor
• LSU vs. Arkansas
• Notre Dame vs. Navy
• Louisville vs. Clemson
• Georgia vs. Mississippi State
• TCU vs. Texas
• North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
• Alabama vs. Ole Miss
• Maryland vs. Penn State
• South Carolina vs. Florida
• Tennessee vs Missouri
• Troy vs Army

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: South Florida vs. SMU

Dead-cat bounce special. South Florida fired former HC Jeff Scott and DC Bob Shoop on Sunday, the morning after the embarrassing 54-28 loss to Temple.

Each of the past two weeks in my Best Bets column, I've backed a team coming off firing their HC - first Charlotte, then Auburn. Charlotte upset Rice as +17 underdogs, while Auburn pushed Mississippi State to OT as +13 underdogs before succumbing by a field goal in a breezy cover this past Saturday.

This has been a profitable system in recent years and is again. Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Colorado, Charlotte, and Auburn were 8-28 ATS (22.2%) before firing their respective head coaches. The week after, those teams went 5-2 ATS (71.4%) with three outright upsets as +14.5-or-more 'dogs.

On the SMU side, the Ponies are currently very thin in the backfield. SMU was without top RBs Camar Wheaton and Tre Siggers once again on Saturday. The Ponies obviously didn't need the pair to hang 77 points on Houston. But you wonder how long SMU can shoulder the absences if both remain out. And you wonder if a letdown performance is coming after that track meet in this sleepy spot against a down opponent.

We're holding our noses and jumping again with what has been a profitable system.

The pick: South Florida +17.5

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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