College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
Ouch. Week 10 did not treat us well, as we went 0-3 and snapped our winning streak. One of those games, UAB, came down to overtime. But our bets on James Madison and Appalachian State never really stood a chance.
The key to sports betting is having a short memory, whether things go well or badly. So let’s get back on the horse and try to bounce back with our Week 11 plays.
2022 season record: 19-15-1
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-17) at Navy Midshipmen | Total 42.5
This game will be played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, the home of the Ravens. And it represents a really tough spot for the Fighting Irish, who are coming off a resounding upset victory at home over Clemson last weekend.
Notre Dame has dominated this series recently, winning four straight, with the last few coming by at least 20 points. However, the Irish have played down to several opponents this season, as they’ve failed to cover as double-digit favorites against Marshall (a straight-up loss), Cal, Stanford (a straight-up loss), and UNLV. Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS as a favorite, with its lone cover coming as short favorites against BYU.
This also isn’t a great matchup for an Irish offense that thrives on the ground. Last week, ND beat Clemson with 263 rushing yards and only 85 passing yards on nine completions. However, Navy’s run defense is legit, ranking 13th with 3.18 yards allowed per carry. The way to beat the Midshipmen is through the air, where they rank 114th. However, I’m not sure quarterback Drew Pyne can take advantage of this shoddy pass defense.
Offensively, Navy’s triple option should be able to move the ball against an Irish defense that ranks 54th against the run. The Midshipmen are also coming off a bye, while Notre Dame could be a little flat and banged up after waging war with Clemson in the trenches. Don’t be surprised if this game is within a score in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Navy +17 (-110)
Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers (-2.5) | Total 48.5
The Auburn Tigers fought hard in their first game without recently fired coach Bryan Harsin. Under interim coach Cadillac Williams, Auburn rallied back from a 24-6 halftime deficit and fell in double overtime to Mississippi State.
The Tigers certainly aren’t dead under the energetic Williams. And now they’ll face an A&M team that might be throwing in the towel after running out of gas against Florida at home last week.
I won’t go quite as far as to say Jimbo Fisher has lost this team. But a season that began with much promise has been nothing short of a disaster.
The matchup also favors the Tigers, who prioritize the ground game. Auburn ranks 42nd in the country with an average of 4.68 yards per carry, while Texas A&M is giving up 4.94 yards per carry, which ranks 120th in the nation.
Texas A&M’s inept offense likely won’t be able to take advantage of an Auburn defense that also struggles to defend the run. Auburn is still fighting, while I’m not sure A&M has much fight left. I’ll take Auburn to win the game outright.
The pick: Auburn (-125)
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