Top 5 College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions (2024)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 11. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions
Iowa State vs. Kansas
Kansas is a better team than its 2-6 record (straight up and ATS) indicates, as it has one-score losses to Illinois, UNLV, Arizona State, and Kansas State. Kansas was overrated coming in and has faced the 27th-hardest SOS. The Jayhawks match up well against Iowa State on offense as they bring the 17th-best run game in the Country into this game, and Iowa State is 93rd in run defense and grade worse than that, according to PFF. Defensively, Iowa State has the same type of advantage as they can move the ball any way they want on Kansas, who are 82nd in Team defensive performance, 69th in Scoring defense and grade in the 93rd or lower in 4 of 5 defensive categories. This game is likely to come down to the little things and Kansas has surprisingly good numbers in Redzone scoring (1st), opponent redzone scoring (46th) and 3rd down conversion percentage (3rd). However a deeper look into these numbers reveals that Kansas is 102nd in Redzone trips (Iowa State 34th) and Iowa State has only allowed 14 redzone trips all season and are 4th in 20+ plays allowed from scrimmage. Iowa State also hold a significant edge in Turnover Margin (8th, Kansas 62nd) and Penalties (2nd, Kansas 33rd). Iowa State had their 'bump in the road' last week losing to Texas Tech and while Kansas is better than advertised, they aren't better than the Cyclones. The BP system is showing an advantage on Iowa State and the public is on them significantly as well.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
Miami vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech beat Miami in this game after one of the biggest coaching mistakes in recent history last season. Miami refused to kneel, fumbled the ball and Haynes King threw a TD pass with seconds left to win in Miami. GT QB Haynes King and leading RB Jamal Haynes are questionable for this game and will likely be less than 100%, even if they are available. King has been out for the last two GT games, and the results were ugly as Notre Dame held the Jackets to only 333 Total Yards and 13 points, while Virginia Tech allowed 356 Total Yards but only 6 points. Miami is a much better team than the one that had the blunder in 2023. The Hurricanes are 1st in scoring and total offense and have the current Heisman favorite quarterback, Cam Ward, leading the charge in this game. Georgia Tech is built to stop the run and while they are solid against the pass, Miami has scored at least 36 points in every game this season and have crossed 50+ points three times this season (twice in their last three games). Miami has run the ball more recently but still pass the ball at a 61.4% rate and Georgia Tech is 122nd in sacks and Cam Ward is the 4th best passer in the nation with a clean pocket (71.5% Completion rate, 2537 yards, 22 TDs, 3 INTs). This will be a closer game if Georgia Tech gets their best offensive players back but Miami should cover with or without them.
Pick: Miami -11
Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Colorado and Texas Tech are both over .500 ATS this season and Tech just had a signature win on the road against Iowa State. Colorado. Texas Tech is averaging 45.4 points in 5 home games, 36.3 points in the 3 against Big 12 opponents and have only been held to fewer than 25 points twice this season. Colorado has been solid against the pass this season but they are really going to need to get home against QB Behren Morton to throw off this Red Raiders offense. Tech is 14th in PBlk rate and they have only given up 14 sacks (50th) despite having a Top-10 Att/Game rate of 41.7 per game. Texas Tech did well to keep Iowa State from scoring last week but the issue for them is not only Coverage, still grade 126 and are 133rd statistically against the pass, they don't get to the QB (122nd, 11 sacks) and still allowed 432 yards to Iowa State last week. Colorado passes at an insanely high 67.7% of their offensive plays and have averaged 36.4 PPG against Big 12 opponents. This game could be a tight one, but it is likely to be a shootout with Colorado doing the heavy lifting; take the Over.
Pick: OVER 62.5
Washington vs. Penn State
Washington and Penn State are a combined 4-13 playing to the Over this season and play way better on defense than offense. Penn State is in the Top-10 in Scoring and Total Defense, Team Defensive Performance, and Top-25 in Passing Defense and Rushing Defense and Run Defense, Pass Rush, and Coverage grades. Big 10 opponents are averaging only 16.2 PPG against the Nittany Lions. It has been a tough season on offense for Washington, as they are 100th in Scoring Offense averaging only 23.6 PPG. The Huskies scoring average drops to only 20.4 against Big 10 opponents and Penn State is only allowing 13 PPG at home this season. Even if this game does become lopsided as the spread suggests, Penn State's 33 points in OT against USC is the most they have scored all season. The lean is heavy toward defense and the Under in this one.
Pick: UNDER 46.5
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Vandy is having a magical season. They are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2018, beat Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn, and played Texas very close. South Carolina had been overlooked a bit before the win against Texas A&M. The Gamecocks put up 374 yards and 25 points on Alabama, they had 35 points against OU with a +4 TO margin, but they really broke out with 530 yards and 44 points against Texas A&M. South Carolina had 18 pressures, 3 sacks and harassed Marcel Reed all night in the huge upset victory against the Aggies. Vandy runs the ball at a 60.5% rate (15th) but South Carolina is a Top-20 run defense and their motor is running hot. Vandy will have a hard time finding room to run, and some of the magic may be wearing off as the last two games they played were their first two with a post-game win expectancy below 50%. South Carolina is rolling downhill, the Vandy momentum seems to be fading and the pressure to qualify for a bowl is off. Lay the points on the Road Favorite
Pick: South Carolina -3.5