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College Football Week 11 Rush Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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We are extremely close to breaking through and having a monster week of our Rush Rate Picks.

We went 4-3 ATS last week and missed our teaser and parlay.

It is another solid week to jump into enticing matchups with familiar teams. Let’s dive into our College Football Week 11 Rush Rate picks! And below we look into GAME.

College Football Week 11 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

  • ATS: 17-13 (+2.70 units)
  • Parlay: 0-4 (-6.50 units)
  • Teaser: 1-3 (-6.10 units)
  • Overall: -9.90 units

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for:

  • Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
  • RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
  • EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt

UAB @ Navy

Navy

  • 2nd in RROE on Standard Downs (+28.6%)
  • 57th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 3rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+27.8%)
  • 103rd in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

UAB

  • 125th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 132nd in Def Stuff Rate
  • 131st in Def Line Yards
  • 114th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 133rd in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 95th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 111th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 132nd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 117th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Navy let us down last week in what looked to be a smash spot. This week is an even better spot. UAB is arguably the worst rush defense in all of College Football. They are in the bottom 40 in every single defensive advanced rushing metric. Navy is having a less-than-stellar year, but this is the spot they should be able to right the ship.

Bet: Navy ML (+130) + Navy for Teasers

West Virginia @ #17 Oklahoma

West Virginia

  • 11th in RROE on Standard Downs (+10.1%)
  • 11th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 10th in RROE on Passing Downs (+12.8%)
  • 45th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Oklahoma

  • 6th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 1st in Def Stuff Rate
  • 9th in Def Line Yards
  • 18th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 23th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 102nd in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 20th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 9th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 40th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

West Virginia has been a darling for us and has shown up in some fortuitous spots. This matchup is not one of those. Oklahoma is reeling after back-to-back losses and is out of the playoff picture. Still, they remain in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship. They should be motivated here and have an elite rushing defense. They will offer plenty of resistance and have the potential to put this game out of reach early on.

Bet: Oklahoma -12.5 (-110)

Minnesota @ Purdue

Minnesota

  • 20th in RROE on Standard Downs (+7.7%)
  • 33rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 7th in RROE on Passing Downs (+13.7%)
  • 79th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Purdue

  • 34th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 46th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 49th in Def Line Yards
  • 49th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 62nd in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 89th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 82nd in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 43rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 108th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Minnesota let us down horrendously last week, but we are returning to the well again. Purdue’s rush defense isn’t abysmal, but it is not formidable. They are slightly above average. What concerns me most is their 108th ranking in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs because Minnesota runs the ball at an even higher elevated rate on Passing Downs. I am going to go with a team with a concrete identity that should be able to break through in this matchup.

Bet: Minnesota ML (-108) + Minnesota for Teasers

Southern Miss @ Louisiana-Lafayette

ULL

  • 24th in RROE on Standard Downs (+5.9%)
  • 7th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 21st in RROE on Passing Downs (+6.7%)
  • 50th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Southern Miss

  • 99th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 109th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 106th in Def Line Yards
  • 98th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 55th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 129th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 64th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 97th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 130th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

This seems to be a redemption article because we are backing teams that let us down last week. We will trust our process of targeting rush-heavy teams in optimal situations. I don’t know if Louisiana-Lafayette will get a better situation all season. Southern Miss is a sieve when it comes to stopping the run. They do not match up well in any facet.

Bet: Louisiana-Lafayette -10.5 (-108) + Louisiana-Lafayette for Teasers

#15 Oklahoma State @ UCF

UCF

  • 27th in RROE on Standard Downs (+5.6%)
  • 10th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 12th in RROE on Passing Downs (+11.2%)
  • 11th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Oklahoma State

  • 47th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 38th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 51st in Def Line Yards
  • 19th in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 44th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 120th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 121st in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 70th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 44th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

To stop this UCF rushing attack, you must be elite in the front seven. Otherwise, you will be decimated at all levels. Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Kansas State have formidable-to-elite rush defenses and were able to control the game environment. Oklahoma State has two rankings that really should concern you, and that is 120th in allowing explosive plays and 121st in Def PFF Rush Grade. These two paired together show us we could be looking at an undisciplined defense.

Bet: UCF ML (+112) + UCF for Teaser

Texas Tech @ #19 Kansas

Kansas

  • 31st in RROE on Standard Downs (+4.2%)
  • 13th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 32nd in RROE on Passing Downs (+4.8%)
  • 40th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Texas Tech

  • 26th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 74th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 64th in Def Line Yards
  • 91st in Def Standard Downs Rate
  • 49th in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 74th in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 92nd in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 28th in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
  • 76th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs

Normally, we would target porous defenses, but when you have a team that is elite at running the ball offensively, they can take advantage of average defenses. That is the angle we have here. Texas Tech is average at defending the run, but Kansas has a premier rushing attack. They should have a plethora of big plays.

Bet: Kansas -4.5 (-110) + Kansas ML (-218) for Parlays

The Bets

ML Parlay

Parlay Odds: +661 for 1 unit

Teaser 6 pts

  • Navy +2.5 to +8.5
  • UCF +2.5 to +8.5
  • ULL -10.5 to -4.5
  • Minnesota +1.5 to +7.5

Teaser Odd: +260 for 2 units

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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