College Football Week 11 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Nov 09, 2023

We seem to be treading water over the last couple of weeks, going 4-4 ATS and 1-1 on our favorite plays. No worries, though. We have an intriguing slate of matchups that offer plenty of value.

This slate presents us with a 28.5 total and several totals in the high 60s. I have no idea how that is even a possibility, but welcome to College Football 2023.

Letâ€™s dive into our Week 11 College Football total picks!

Record:

ATS: 17-14 (+2.60 units)
Favorite Plays: 4-4

College Football Week 11 IsoPPP and Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The average over/under total for a College Football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn't that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the "Red zone" from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78% of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent's 40-yard lines. I know you are saying," Well, yeah, that's not surprising." The great thing is that it's a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, "The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need." This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that's where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent's 40-yard line
IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total - Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy
Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Let's dive into the six games we will target this week.

North Texas @ SMU | Over 67.5

Projected PPO Difference +.88 points
North Texas Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
SMU Projected Top 30 Overall IsoPPP matchup
SMU Projected Top 10 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
SMU Projected Average Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
North Texas 9th in Pace
SMU 22nd in Pace
North Texas 23rd in PROE on Standard Downs (+6.8%)
North Texas 70th in PROE on Passing Downs (-.2%)
SMU 89th in PROE on Standard Downs (-2.5%)
SMU 17th in PROE on Passing Downs (+10.2%)

This matchup is the epitome of what we seek in an over. These are two teams who are elite in pace of play and have numerous top-tier IsoPPP matchups with solid PROE profiles. I can easily see this game hitting the low 80s with little resistance. If North Texas keeps the game semi-competitive, this should be a cakewalk to the window.

Bet: Over 67.5 (-110)

Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana-Lafayette | Over 50.5

Projected PPO Difference +6.6 points
Southern Miss Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Louisiana Projected Top 20 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Southern Miss 90th in Pace
Louisiana 73rd in Pace
Southern Miss 39th in PROE on Standard Downs (+4.1%)
Southern Miss 109th in PROE on Passing Downs (-5.9%)
Louisiana 110th in PROE on Standard Downs (-5.9%)
Louisiana 113th in PROE on Passing Downs (-6.7%)

This game has a moderate total of 50.5. In matchups like this, it will not be a perfect game environment to go over the total, but we have numerous factors in our favor. We have a projected PPO difference of +6.6 points and zero negative IsoPPP matchups. Louisiana-Lafayette also has premier IsoPPP matchups across the board. The gameâ€™s pace should be average, and both teams are balanced regarding play selection. Louisiana, the favorite in this matchup, will have to carry this total and probably will have to score 35-plus points. This game will have plenty of possessions inside the 40s and a solid amount of explosive plays.

Bet: Over 50.5 (-112)

Temple @ USF | Over 67.5

Projected PPO Difference +.6 points
Temple Projected Top 10 Overall IsoPPP matchup
Temple Projected Top 30 Standard Downs IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
South Florida Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
South Florida Projected Top 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Temple 18th in Pace
South Florida 3rd in Pace
Temple 11th in PROE on Standard Downs (+11.1%)
Temple 16th in PROE on Passing Downs (+10.5%)
South Florida 95th in PROE on Standard Downs (-3.9%)
South Florida 116th in PROE on Passing Downs (-8.8%)

These are two teams that the average bettor would scroll right past when looking at the overall slate. I embrace a matchup of this caliber simply because it is overlooked. We have two teams that are top-20 in pace, and there are plenty of explosive matchups to exploit. The only negative is that South Florida tends to run the ball at elevated rates, but it makes the point moot because they play at such a high pace. This could be one of the most exciting games of the weekend, despite being between two teams that could fail to go bowling.

Bet: Over 67.5 (-112)

Arizona @ Colorado | Over 55.5

Projected PPO Difference +7.3 points
Arizona Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Colorado Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Colorado Projected Bottom 30 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
Arizona 87th in Pace
Colorado 7th in Pace
Arizona 32nd in PROE on Standard Downs (+4.7%)
Arizona 4th in PROE on Passing Downs (+16.9%)
Colorado 9th in PROE on Standard Downs (+14.5%)
Colorado 19th in PROE on Passing Downs (+10%)

Colorado playing in a game with a total under 60 is shocking, but here we are. This game has a significant Projected PPO Difference and two teams with elite-level PROE profiles. Also, if you factor in that Colorado will dictate the majority of this game environment with their breakneck pace, we could see a carbon copy of many of Coloradoâ€™s previous games that ended up in the high 70s/low 80s.

Bet: Over 55.5 (-112)

Rutgers @ Iowa | Under 28.5

Rutgers Projected Bottom 30 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Iowa Projected Bottom 30 Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
Rutgers 126th in Pace
Iowa 98th in Pace
Rutgers 118th in PROE on Standard Downs (-8.2%)
Rutgers 101st in PROE on Passing Downs (-4.5%)
Iowa 115th in PROE on Standard Downs (-7.7%)
Iowa 35th in PROE on Passing Downs (+6.6%)

This matchup is treacherous and hideous. I will be utterly shocked if there are three plays over 20 yards. I honestly cannot believe that in 2023, there is a total for a game under 30 points. How would you explain to someone that there is a game with a total near 70 on the same weekend where one is bordering 30? Anywho, this game should be an absolute slog. Turn it on, take a nap and wake up in the fourth quarter to cash your ticket.

Bet: Under 28.5 (-108)

#15 Oklahoma State @ UCF | Over 64.0

Projected PPO Difference -1.3 points
Oklahoma State Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
Oklahoma State Projected Bottom 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
UCF Projected Top 10 Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
UCF Projected Top 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
Oklahoma State 29th in Pace
UCF 17th in Pace
Oklahoma State 13th in PROE on Standard Downs (+10.9%)
Oklahoma State 20th in PROE on Passing Downs (+9.2%)
UCF 107th in PROE on Standard Downs (-5.6%)
UCF 122nd in PROE on Passing Downs (-11.2%)

The angle in this matchup is pretty straightforward. We have two teams with elite pace and explosive matchups. UCF has the best IsoPPP matchups of any team on the slate this week. They should have a bevy of 20-yard plays and see plenty of success on the scoreboard. The overall game environment will drive this total up, where it can easily land in the mid-70s.

Bet: Over 64.0 (-110)

Favorite Plays

Temple/South Florida over 67.5 (-112)
North Texas/SMU over 67.5 (-110)
Rutgers/Iowa under 28.5 (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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