College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
Week 12 means we're in the final two weeks of the season. We've learned so much about these teams throughout the season, and there have been some teams we've road a few times throughout the year with success. We're going back to well with some of these teams in great spots again this week. Let's take a look at the board.
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>
Connecticut (+10) at Army
It's been an incredible turnaround for Jim Mora at UConn. In Week 11, they clinched bowl eligibility with their first six-win season since 2015. They went through some growing pains early in the year, but this team has grown so much. Because of this, their advanced stat numbers really don't paint a picture of the team we see on the field each week.
SP+ ranks UConn as the 117th-best team in the country, but they sure haven't played like it since the calendar turned to October. There's no reason I expect this to change against Army.
Army is just 1-6 against FBS opponents in 2022. They've managed to keep a lot of these games close, but this team is clearly not at the level of some Army teams we've seen over the last decade. When it comes to service academy teams, you don't really need to worry about motivation, and there is still plenty for an Army team that can get bowl eligible with wins over UConn, UMass, and Navy.
I like UConn in this spot because they can take advantage of a horrendous Army run defense. They're the better team, but since the advanced stats don't like them, they're a long shot in this matchup. Mora has this team believing in themselves. This will be the final regular season game of the year for the Huskies, and I like them to pick up win number seven for the first time since the Fiesta Bowl season of 2010.
Pick: UConn ML (+310)
Duke (+7.5) at Pittsburgh
The Blue Devils have been a frequent team of interest in the longshot winners realm, and they've come through for us twice in the season. With the second to last weekend upon us, I'm going to see if they can't come through for us one more time.
This week they match up with Pittsburgh. The Panthers rank 49th in SP+ with a 41st-ranked offense. However, this isn't the same offense that was led by Kenny Pickett in 2021. Their offense was held in check a few times this season, including in losses to Georgia Tech, Louisville, and UNC. Even in the blowout over Virginia this last week, they were spotted 14 points in the opening seconds and managed just 23 points on the next ten drives that didn't result at the end of a half.
Duke has been a scrappy team that's played above their advanced rankings. They'll look for their eighth win of the season in this matchup, their most in eight years. A massively improved defense has changed the complexion of this team. They rank 51st in SP+ and have really shown up in big games.
The offense has also excelled in ACC play. They're outpaced in scoring during conference play by only UNC, Clemson, and Florida State. Led by QB Riley Leonard, in the air, and on the ground, they're more than capable of putting up points on this Pittsburgh team.
This Duke team has not lost a game by more than one possession. Their worst loss came in an 8-point defeat at the hands of a fully healthy Kansas team on the road. There's no reason to believe this team can not only keep this tight but pull out a big road victory.
Pick: Duke ML (+250)
Houston Cougars (+6) at East Carolina Pirates
After a rough 2-3 start to the season, Houston looked like it might give up on the season. Instead, they turned things around, going 4-1, scoring 43.8 points per game, and putting up the 8th-rated offense per SP+.
Senior QB Clayton Tune has led the way for the high-powered Cougar offense. He's gone for 3024 yards (9th in the nation) and 31 touchdowns (3rd in the nation). They've been able to score on every defense they've played this year, and I expect this matchup with East Carolina to be no different.
ECU is a fairly balanced team, ranking 50th in offense and 52nd in defense. They've had some head-scratching offense performances, including a 20-point outing in a loss to Navy and a 9-point performance in a loss to Tulane. Houston's defense may not provide much of a challenge, but I don't think the Pirates' offense will be able to go score for score with the Cougars.
An explosive offense is one of the best ways to pull off a longshot upset in college football. The Houston Cougars have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation and should come away from this game with another victory.
Pick: Houston ML (+180)
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