College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: LSU vs. UAB (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 12 odds, picks, and predictions for this weekend’s game: LSU vs. UAB.
And check out our other game previews and picks for Week 12 of the College Football season:
- Middle Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic
- Auburn vs. Western Kentucky
- North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
- Navy vs. UCF
- Utah vs. Oregon
- Maryland vs. Ohio State
- UCLA vs. USC
- Louisiana vs. Florida State
- Vanderbilt vs. Florida
- Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion
- Fresno State vs. Nevada
- UConn vs. Army
- Duke vs. Pittsburgh
- Houston vs. East Carolina
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: LSU vs. UAB
I feel like I'm in the minority taking the Tigers at home this weekend, and I'm a little surprised by it. LSU is by no means the cleanest No. 6 ranked team we've ever seen, but I think they match up well with UAB. In four of UAB's five losses this season, they have given up over 150 yards rushing, and LSU has hit that mark in eight of 10 games so far. The only two games in which LSU didn't cross the 150 yards rushing mark happens to be their two losses to Florida State in Week 1 and Tennessee in Week 6.
UAB has a solid defense, specifically in PFF grade, as they are ranked inside the Top 10. LSU has given up pressure to the QB, allowing the 4th most sacks in the country (39), but UAB hasn't taken advantage of a foul line yet, with 17 total sacks. The UAB defense has only had more than two sacks three times against FCS, Alabama A&M, Rice (in a loss), and MTSU. According to my friends at CFB Winning Edge, the OL for LSU ranks 9th in position strength nationally, and UAB is below 100 on the defensive line. It's hard for me to imagine LSU not putting up 200 yards rushing with a solid combo of Josh Williams and John Emery at RB and team-leading rusher QB Jayden Daniels.
The more considerable discrepancy will be UAB’s offense against this LSU defense, particularly in the run game. LSU doesn't look great statistically against the run sitting at just above average, allowing just over 140 yards per game, but they have faced some tough running offenses so far this season. LSU has faced Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn. Those teams average at least 190 yards rushing per game so the stats will be a bit more skewed than most. UAB has an NFL prospect in DeWayne McBride, who is 2nd in the nation in rushing yards behind only Illinois RB Chase Brown and saw the return of their starting QB, Dylan Hopkins, after two weeks.
UAB grades out well offensively, too, but again, I worry about the discrepancy in overall talent as my guys at CFBWE have this as a top-10 defense against a team closer to 100 in terms of talent, obviously in LSU's favor. I feel like LSU will be able to do whatever they want against this UAB defense, leading to UAB steering away from the run game to play catch up, which is away from their strength. It's a bad combo for UAB, which should make this game lopsided.
LSU will play down sometimes, and they seemed to do that last week on the road against Arkansas. I'm guessing the betting public thinks they will be looking ahead to Texas A&M next week. For a team in the playoff picture, I have to believe that last week was a wake-up call for LSU. If the close call against Arkansas wasn't, this is still LSU's Homecoming game under the lights in Death Valley. LSU has put up, on average, just over 35 PPG at home this season, but I feel like this game is in the neighborhood of 42-17, if not uglier, in LSU's favor. LSU needs to dominate to impress voters, they should want to play well in their last home game, and while UAB won't lay down, I think they'll be run over in this one.
#6 LSU -14.5 vs. UAB and OVER 52.5
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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